1932
0
  1. Home
  2. A-Z Publications
  3. Annual Review of Sociology
  4. Volume 43, 2017
  5. Article

Annual Review of Sociology

Volume 43, 2017

The Second Demographic Transition Theory: A Review and Appraisal

Abstract

References to the second demographic transition (SDT) have increased dramatically in the past two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable, and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the United States, the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic or family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change and difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and we provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.

Keyword(s): cohabitation, demographic change, family, fertility, ideational change, marriage
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442
2017-07-31
2024-04-18
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/soc/43/1/annurev-soc-060116-053442.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Aries P. 1980. Two successive motivations for the declining birth rate in the West. Popul. Dev. Rev. 6:645–50 [Google Scholar]
  2. Arpino B, Esping-Andersen G, Pessin L. 2014. Changes in gender role attitudes and fertility: a macro-level analysis DemoSoc Work. Pap. 2013–51 Dep. Political Soc. Sci., Univ. Pompeu Fabra, Spain
  3. Atoh M, Kandiah V, Ivanov S. 2004. The second demographic transition in Asia? Comparative analysis of the low fertility situation in East and South-East Asian countries. Jpn. J. Popul. 2:42–75 [Google Scholar]
  4. Bachrach CA, Morgan SP. 2013. A cognitive-social model of fertility intentions. Popul. Dev. Rev. 39:3459–85 [Google Scholar]
  5. Bailey MJ. 2013. Is there a case for a “Second Demographic Transition”? Three distinctive features of the post-1960 U.S. fertility decline. NBER Work. Pap. 19599 Natl. Bur. Econ. Res. Cambridge, MA:
  6. Becker G. 1973. A theory of marriage: Part I. J. Political Econ. 81:4813–46 [Google Scholar]
  7. Becker G. 1974. A theory of marriage: Part II. J. Political Econ. 82:2S11–26 [Google Scholar]
  8. Becker G. 1981. A Treatise on the Family Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press
  9. Bernhardt E. 2004. Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful concept for demography?. Vienna Yearb. Popul. Res. 2:25–28 [Google Scholar]
  10. Bianchi SM. 2014. A demographic perspective on family change. J. Fam. Theory Rev. 6:35–44 [Google Scholar]
  11. Billari FC, Liefbroer AC. 2004. Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful concept for demography? Introduction to a debate. Vienna Yearb. Popul. Res. 2:1–3 [Google Scholar]
  12. Billari FC, Liefbroer AC. 2010. Towards a new pattern of transition to adulthood?. Adv. Life Course Res. 15:59–75 [Google Scholar]
  13. Billari FC, Wilson C. 2001. Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe Work. Pap. WP 2001-039 Max Planck Inst. Demogr. Res. Rostock, Ger.:
  14. Blossfeld B, Klijzing E, Mills M, Kurz K. 2005. Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society London/New York: Routledge
  15. Bongaarts J, Watkins SC. 1996. Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Popul. Dev. Rev. 22:4639–82 [Google Scholar]
  16. Bystrov E. 2014. Testing the second demographic transition theory with seemingly unrelated regression: marital postponement and human empowerment. Eur. Sociol. Rev. 30:483–99 [Google Scholar]
  17. Casterline JB. 2003. Demographic transition. Encyclopedia of Population 1 P Demeny, G McNicoll 210–16 New York: Thomson & Gale [Google Scholar]
  18. Cherlin AJ. 2004. The deinstitutionalization of American marriage. J. Marriage Fam. 66:4848–61 [Google Scholar]
  19. Cherlin AJ. 2010. Demographic trends in the United States: a review of research in the 2000s. J. Marriage Fam. 72:403–19 [Google Scholar]
  20. Cherlin AJ. 2012. Goode's world revolution and family patterns: a reconsideration at fifty years. Popul. Dev. Rev. 38:577–607 [Google Scholar]
  21. Cherlin AJ. 2014. First union patterns around the world: introduction to the special issue. Popul. Res. Policy Rev. 33:153–59 [Google Scholar]
  22. Cherlin AJ. 2016. A happy ending to a half-century of family change?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 42:1121–29 [Google Scholar]
  23. Chesnais J. 1996. Fertility, family, and social policy in contemporary Western Europe. Popul. Dev. Rev. 22:4729–39 [Google Scholar]
  24. Cleland J, Wilson C. 1987. Demand theories of the fertility transition: an iconoclastic view. Popul. Stud. 41:15–30 [Google Scholar]
  25. Cliquet RL. 1991. The Second Demographic Transition: Fact or Fiction? Strasbourg, Fr.: Counc. Eur.
  26. Coale AJ, Watkins SC. 1986. The Decline of Fertility in Europe Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  27. Coleman D. 2004. Why we don't have to believe without doubting in the “Second Demographic Transition”—some agnostic comments. Vienna Yearb. Popul. Res. 2:11–24 [Google Scholar]
  28. Dominguez-Folgueras M, Castro-Martín T. 2013. Cohabitation in Spain: no longer a marginal path to family formation. J. Marriage Fam. 75:422–37 [Google Scholar]
  29. Easterlin RA. 1976. The conflict between aspirations and resources. Popul. Dev. Rev. 2:417–25 [Google Scholar]
  30. Esping-Andersen G. 1999. Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  31. Esping-Andersen G, Billari FC. 2015. Re-theorizing family demographics. Popul. Dev. Rev. 41:11–31 [Google Scholar]
  32. Esteve A, García‐Román J, Lesthaeghe R. 2012a. The family context of cohabitation and single motherhood in Latin America. Popul. Dev. Rev. 38:707–27 [Google Scholar]
  33. Esteve A, Lesthaeghe R, López‐Gay A. 2012b. The Latin American cohabitation boom, 1970–2007. Popul. Dev. Rev. 38:55–81 [Google Scholar]
  34. Foster C. 2000. The limits to low fertility: a biosocial approach. Popul. Dev. Rev. 26:209–34 [Google Scholar]
  35. Frejka T, Calot G. 2001. Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries. Popul. Dev. Rev. 27:103–32 [Google Scholar]
  36. Frejka T, Jones GW, Sardon JP. 2010. East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments. Popul. Dev. Rev. 36:3579–606 [Google Scholar]
  37. Fussell E, Palloni A. 2004. Persistent marriage regimes in changing times. J. Marriage Fam. 66:1201–13 [Google Scholar]
  38. García-Manglano J, Nollenberger N, Sevilla A. 2014. Gender, time-use, and fertility recovery in industrialized countries IZA Discuss. Pap. No. 8613 IZA Bonn, Ger.:
  39. Gibson-Davis CM, Edin K, McLanahan S. 2005. High hopes but even higher expectations: the retreat from marriage among low-income couples. J. Marriage Fam. 67:1301–12 [Google Scholar]
  40. Goldscheider F. 2000. Why study young adult living arrangements? A view of the second demographic transition Presented at Leaving Home: A European Focus, Max Planck Inst. Demogr. Res. Sept. 6–8 Rostock, Ger.:
  41. Goldscheider F, Bernhardt E, Lappegård T. 2015. The gender revolution: a framework for understanding changing family and demographic behavior. Popul. Dev. Rev. 41:2207–39 [Google Scholar]
  42. Goldstein JR, Sobotka T, Jasilioniene A. 2009. The end of “lowest-low” fertility?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 35:663–99 [Google Scholar]
  43. Gubernskaya Z. 2010. Changing attitudes toward marriage and children in six countries. Sociol. Perspect. 53:179–200 [Google Scholar]
  44. Handwerker WP. 1986. Culture and Reproduction: An Anthropological Critique of Demographic Transition Theory London: Westview Press
  45. Hayford SR, Guzzo KB, Smock PJ. 2014. The decoupling of marriage and parenthood? Trends in the timing of marital first births, 1945–2002. J. Marriage Fam. 76:520–38 [Google Scholar]
  46. Heuveline P, Timberlake JM. 2004. The role of cohabitation in family formation: the United States in comparative perspective. J. Marriage Fam. 66:1214–30 [Google Scholar]
  47. Hiekel N, Castro-Martín T. 2014. Grasping the diversity of cohabitation: fertility intentions among cohabiters across Europe. J. Marriage Fam. 76:489–505 [Google Scholar]
  48. Inglehart R. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  49. Janssens A. 2007. Gendering the Fertility Decline in the Western World Bern, Switz.: Peter Lang
  50. Johnson-Hanks J. 2008. Demographic transitions and modernity. Annu. Rev. Anthropol. 37:301–15 [Google Scholar]
  51. Johnson-Hanks J, Bachrach C, Morgan SP, Kohler HP. 2011. Understanding Family Change and Variation: Structure, Conjuncture, and Action New York: Springer
  52. Jones GW. 2007. Delayed marriage and very low fertility in Pacific Asia. Popul. Dev. Rev. 33:453–78 [Google Scholar]
  53. Jones GW, Yeung WJ. 2014. Marriage in Asia. J. Fam. Issues 35:121567–83 [Google Scholar]
  54. Kohler HP, Billari FC, Ortega JA. 2002. The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Popul. Dev. Rev. 28:641–80 [Google Scholar]
  55. Kuijsten AC. 1996. Changing family patterns in Europe: a case of divergence?. Eur. J. Popul. 12:115–43 [Google Scholar]
  56. Lesthaeghe R. 1977. The Decline of Belgian Fertility, 1800–1970 Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  57. Lesthaeghe R. 1995. The second demographic transition in Western countries: an interpretation. Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries KO Mason, AM Jensen 17–62 Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press [Google Scholar]
  58. Lesthaeghe R. 1998. On theory development: applications to the study of family formation. Popul. Dev. Rev. 24:1–14 [Google Scholar]
  59. Lesthaeghe R. 2010. The unfolding story of the Second Demographic Transition. Popul. Dev. Rev. 36:211–51 [Google Scholar]
  60. Lesthaeghe R. 2011. The “Second Demographic Transition”: a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation. Hist. Soc. Res. 36:179–218 [Google Scholar]
  61. Lesthaeghe R. 2014. The second demographic transition: a concise overview of its development. PNAS 111:18112–15 [Google Scholar]
  62. Lesthaeghe R, Lopez-Gay A. 2013. Spatial continuities and discontinuities in two successive demographic transitions: Spain and Belgium, 1880–2010. Demogr. Res. 28:77–136 [Google Scholar]
  63. Lesthaeghe R, Neidert L. 2006. The second demographic transition in the United States: exception or textbook example?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 32:669–98 [Google Scholar]
  64. Lesthaeghe R, Surkyn J. 2008. When history moves on: the foundations and diffusion of a second demographic transition. International Family Change: Ideational Perspectives R Jayakody, A Thornton, W Axinn 81–118 New York: Lawrence Erlbaum Assoc. [Google Scholar]
  65. Lesthaeghe R, van de Kaa DJ. 1986. Twee demografische transities?. Bevolking: Groei of Krimp? R Lesthaeghe, D van de Kaa 9–24 Deventer, Neth.: Van Loghum-Slaterus [Google Scholar]
  66. Lesthaeghe R, Wilson C. 1986. Modes of production, secularization, and the pace of the fertility decline in Western Europe, 1870–1930. The Decline of Fertility in Europe AJ Coale, SC Watkins 261–92 Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  67. Malthus T. 1985 (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population and a Summary View of the Principle of Population London: Penguin
  68. Manning WD, Longmore MA, Giordano PC. 2007. The changing institution of marriage: adolescents’ expectations to cohabit and to marry. J. Marriage Fam. 69:559–75 [Google Scholar]
  69. Manning WD, Smock PJ. 2005. Measuring and modeling cohabitation: new perspectives from qualitative data. J. Marriage Fam. 67:989–1002 [Google Scholar]
  70. Mason KO. 2001. Gender and family systems in the fertility transition. Popul. Dev. Rev. 27:160–76 [Google Scholar]
  71. McCann CR. 2009. Malthusian men and demographic transitions: a case study of hegemonic masculinity in mid-twentieth-century population theory. Front.: J. Women's Stud. 30:142–71 [Google Scholar]
  72. McDonald P. 2000. Gender equity in theories of fertility transition. Popul. Dev. Rev. 26:427–39 [Google Scholar]
  73. McDonald P. 2009. Explanations of low fertility in East Asia: a comparative perspective. Ultra-Low Fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, Causes, and Policy Issues G Jones, PT Straughan, A Chan 23–39 Oxford, UK: Routledge [Google Scholar]
  74. McLanahan S. 2004. Diverging destinies: how children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography 41:607–27 [Google Scholar]
  75. Merz E-M, Liefbroer AC. 2012. The attitude toward voluntary childlessness in Europe: cultural and institutional explanations. J. Marriage Fam. 74:587–600 [Google Scholar]
  76. Miettinen A, Basten S, Rotkirch A. 2011. Gender equality and fertility intentions revisited. Demogr. Res. 24:469–96 [Google Scholar]
  77. Mills M, Blossfeld HP. 2013. The second demographic transition meets globalization: a comprehensive theory to understand changes in family formation in an era of rising uncertainty. Life Course Research and Social Policies, Vol. 1: Negotiating the Life Course A Evans, J Baxter 9–33 Dordrecht, Neth.: Springer [Google Scholar]
  78. Morgan SP. 2003. Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?. Demography 40:589–603 [Google Scholar]
  79. Morgan SP. 2011. Thinking about demographic family differences. Social Class and Changing Families in an Unequal America MJ Carlson, P England 50–67 Stanford, CA: Stanford Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  80. Morgan SP. 2015. Variation in U.S. fertility: low and not so low, but not lowest-low. Low and Lower Fertility: Variations Across Developed Countries RR Rindfuss, MK Choe 125–41 Cham, Switz.: Springer [Google Scholar]
  81. Morgan SP, Taylor MG. 2006. Low fertility at the turn of the twenty-first century. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 32:375–99 [Google Scholar]
  82. OECD (Organ. Econ. Coop. Dev.). 2015. Marriage and divorce rates Rep. SF 3.1 OECD Soc. Policy Div., Dir. Employ., Labor Soc. Aff.
  83. Ortega JA. 2014. A characterization of world union patterns at the national and regional level. Popul. Res. Policy Rev. 33:161–88 [Google Scholar]
  84. Perelli-Harris B, Gerber T. 2011. Nonmarital childbearing in Russia: second demographic transition or pattern of disadvantage?. Demography 48:317–42 [Google Scholar]
  85. Raley RK. 2001. Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: evidence for the second demographic transition in the United States?. Demography 38:59–66 [Google Scholar]
  86. Ravaneral ZR, Lee HY, Rajulton F, Cho B. 1999. Should a second demographic transition follow the first? Demographic contrasts: Canada and South Korea. Soc. Indic. Res. 47:99–118 [Google Scholar]
  87. Raymo JM, Iwasawa M, Bumpass L. 2009. Cohabitation and family formation in Japan. Demography 46:785–803 [Google Scholar]
  88. Raymo JM, Park H, Xie Y, Yeung WJ. 2015. Marriage and family in East Asia: continuity and change. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 14:41471–92 [Google Scholar]
  89. Riley NE, McCarthy J. 2003. Demography in the Age of the Postmodern Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  90. Rindfuss RR, Choe MK. 2015. Low and Lower Fertility: Variations Across Developed Countries Cham, Switz.: Springer
  91. Rindfuss RR, Choe MK. 2016. Low Fertility, Institutions and Their Policies: Variations Across Industrialized Countries Cham, Switz.: Springer
  92. Rivkin-Fish M. 2003. Anthropology, demography, and the search for a critical analysis of fertility: insights from Russia. Am. Anthropol. 105:289–301 [Google Scholar]
  93. Rosero-Bixby L, Castro-Martín T, Martín-García T. 2009. Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing?. Demogr. Res. 20:169–94 [Google Scholar]
  94. Rowland DT. 2007. Historical trends in childlessness. J. Fam. Issues 28:1311–37 [Google Scholar]
  95. Sauvy A. 1960. Essai d'une vue d'ensemble. La prévention des naissances dans la famille: ses origines dans les temps modernes H Bergues, P Aries, E Helin, L Henry, RP Riquet et al.375–91 Paris: Presses Universitaires de France [Google Scholar]
  96. Sewell W. 1992. A theory of structure: duality, agency, and transformation. Am. J. Sociol. 98:11–29 [Google Scholar]
  97. Sewell W. 2005. Logics of History Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  98. Shapiro D, Gebreselassie T. 2014. Marriage in sub-Saharan Africa: trends, determinants, and consequences. Popul. Res. Policy Rev. 33:229–55 [Google Scholar]
  99. Shorter E. 1971. Illegitimacy, sexual revolution, and social change in modern Europe. J. Interdiscip. Hist. 2:237–72 [Google Scholar]
  100. Smock PJ, Greenland FR. 2010. Diversity in pathways to parenthood: patterns, implications, and emerging research directions. J. Marriage Fam. 72:576–93 [Google Scholar]
  101. Sobotka T. 2004. Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 30:195–220 [Google Scholar]
  102. Sobotka T. 2008. Overview chapter 6: the diverse faces of the second demographic transition in Europe. Demogr. Res. 19:171–224 [Google Scholar]
  103. Solsona M. 1998. The second demographic transition from a gender perspective. Innov.: Eur. J. Soc. Sci. Res. 11:211–25 [Google Scholar]
  104. Surkyn J, Lesthaeghe R. 2004. Value orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: an update. Demogr. Res. Spec. Collect. 3:45–86 [Google Scholar]
  105. Thornton A. 2001. The developmental paradigm, reading history sideways, and family change. Demography 38:449–67 [Google Scholar]
  106. Thornton A. 2005. Reading History Sideways: The Fallacy and Enduring Impact of the Developmental Paradigm on Family Change Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  107. Thornton A, Young‐DeMarco L. 2001. Four decades of trends in attitudes toward family issues in the United States: the 1960s through the 1990s. J. Marriage Fam. 63:41009–37 [Google Scholar]
  108. Van Bavel J, Reher DS. 2013. The baby boom and its causes: what we know and what we need to know. Popul. Dev. Rev. 39:257–88 [Google Scholar]
  109. van de Kaa DJ. 1987. Europe's Second Demographic Transition Washington, DC: Popul. Ref. Bur.
  110. van de Kaa DJ. 1994. The second demographic transition revisited: theories and expectations. Population and Family in the Low Countries 1993: Late Fertility and Other Current Issues G Beets, H van den Brekel, R Cliquet, G Dooghe, J de Jong Gierveld 81–126 Lisse, Neth.: Swets and Zeitlinger [Google Scholar]
  111. van de Kaa DJ. 1996. Anchored narratives: the story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. Popul. Stud. 50:389–432 [Google Scholar]
  112. van de Kaa DJ. 1999. Europe and its population: the long view. European Populations DJ van de Kaa, H Leridon, G Gesano, M Okólski 1–49 Dordrecht, Neth.: Springer [Google Scholar]
  113. van de Kaa DJ. 2001. Postmodern fertility preferences: from changing value orientation to new behavior. Popul. Dev. Rev. 27:290–331 [Google Scholar]
  114. van de Kaa DJ. 2002. The idea of a second demographic transition in industrialized countries Presented at Sixth Welf. Policy Semin. Natl. Popul. Soc. Secur. Jan. 29 Tokyo:
  115. van de Kaa DJ. 2004a. Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful research concept? Questions and answers. Vienna Yearb. Popul. Res. 2:4–10 [Google Scholar]
  116. van de Kaa DJ. 2004b. The true commonality: In reflexive modern societies fertility is a derivative. Popul. Stud. 58:77–92 [Google Scholar]
  117. van de Kaa DJ. 2010. Universal history and population change. Demographia 53:5–20 [Google Scholar]
  118. Westoff CF, Ryder NB. 1977. The Contraceptive Revolution Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442
Loading
The Second Demographic Transition Theory: A Review and Appraisal
Annual Review of Sociology 43, 473 (2017); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article

Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error