1932

Abstract

Within the past decade, the attribution of extreme weather and climate events has emerged from a theoretical possibility into a subfield of climate science in its own right, providing scientific evidence on the role of anthropogenic climate change in individual extreme weather events, on a regular basis and using a range of approaches. Different approaches and thus different framings of the attribution question lead to very different assessments of the role of human-induced climate change. Although there is no right or wrong approach, the community is currently debating about the appropriate methodologies for addressing various stakeholder needs and scientific limitations. Tackling these limitations with more thorough model evaluation and meaningful bias corrections as well as going beyond the meteorological hazard and attributing the full impacts of extreme weather are the main challenges to face in the coming years.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847
2017-10-17
2024-03-29
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/energy/42/1/annurev-environ-102016-060847.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K. 1. , eds. 1995. Climate Change 1995: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. Allen M. 2.  2003. Liability for climate change. Nature 421:6926891–92 [Google Scholar]
  3. Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR. 3.  2004. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:7017610–14 [Google Scholar]
  4. Otto FEL. 4.  2016. Extreme events: the art of attribution. Nat. Climate Change 6:342–43 [Google Scholar]
  5. Peterson T, Stott P, Herring S. 5.  2012. Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93:1041–67 [Google Scholar]
  6. Kay AL, Crooks SM, Pall P, Stone DA. 6.  2011a. Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study. J. Hydrol. 406:97–112 [Google Scholar]
  7. Dole R, Hoerling M, Perlwitz W, Eischeid J, Pegion P. 7.  et al. 2011. Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38:L06702 [Google Scholar]
  8. Rahmstorf S, Coumou D. 8.  2011. Increase of extreme events in a warming world. PNAS 108:17905–9 [Google Scholar]
  9. Otto FEL, Massey N, van Oldenborgh GJ, Jones RG, Allen MR. 9.  2012. Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39:L04702 [Google Scholar]
  10. Haustein K, Otto FEL, Uhe P, Schaller N, Allen MR. 10.  et al. 2016. Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs. Environ. Res. Lett. 11:6064006 [Google Scholar]
  11. Sippel S, Otto FEL. 11.  2014. Beyond climatological extremes—assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate. Clim. Change 125:381–98 [Google Scholar]
  12. Otto FEL, Coleho CAS, King A, Coughlan de Perez E, Wada Y. 12.  et al. 2015. Water shortage in southeast Brazil. See Ref. 64 S35–40
  13. Schaller N, Kay AL, Lamb R, Massey NR, van Oldenborgh GJ. 13.  et al. 2016. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nat. Clim. Change 6:627–34 [Google Scholar]
  14. Hannart A, Carrassi A, Bocquet M, Ghil M, Naveau P. 14.  et al. 2016. DADA: Data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather-and climate-related events. Clim. Change 136:155–74 [Google Scholar]
  15. Otto FEL, van Oldenborgh GJ, Eden J, Stott PA, Karoly DJ, Allen MR. 15.  2016. The attribution question. Nat. Clim. Change 6:813–16 [Google Scholar]
  16. 16. Natl. Acad. Sci. Eng. Med. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Washington, DC: Natl. Acad.
  17. Stott P, Christidis N, Otto F, Sun Y, Vanderlinden J. 17.  et al. 2016. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. WIREs Clim. Change 7:23–41 [Google Scholar]
  18. Shepherd TG. 18.  2016. A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2:28 [Google Scholar]
  19. Easterling DR, Kunkel KE, Wehner MF, Sun L. 19.  2016. Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record. Weather Clim. Extrem. 11:17–27 [Google Scholar]
  20. Parker HR, Cornforth RJ, Suarez P, Allen MR, Boyd E. 20.  et al. 2016. Using a game to engage stakeholders in extreme event attribution science. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 7:353–65 [Google Scholar]
  21. van Oldenborgh GJ. 21.  2007. How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe?. Clim. Past 3:659–68 [Google Scholar]
  22. Lewis SC, Karoly DJ. 22.  2013. Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40:3705–9 [Google Scholar]
  23. Massey N, Jones R, Otto FEL, Aina T, Wilson S. 23.  et al. 2014. weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modeling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141:1528–45 [Google Scholar]
  24. Sippel S, Mitchell D, Black MT, Dittus AJ, Harrington L. 24.  et al. 2015. Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events. Weather Clim. Extrem. 9:25–35 [Google Scholar]
  25. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. 25.  2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93:4485–98 [Google Scholar]
  26. Schaller N, Otto F, van Oldenborgh GJ, Massey N, Sparrow S. 26.  2014. The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins. See Ref. 63 S69–72
  27. Pall P, Aina T, Stone T, Stott PA, Nozawa T. 27.  et al. 2011. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to UK autumn flood risk. Nature 470:382–85 [Google Scholar]
  28. Otto A, Otto FEL, Boucher O, Church J, Hegerl G. 28.  et al. 2013. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nat. Geosci. 6:415–16 [Google Scholar]
  29. Hawkins E, Ortega P, Suckling E, Schurer A, Hegerl G. 29.  et al. 2017. Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. In press
  30. Hoerling M, Hurrel J, Eischeid J, Phillips A. 30.  2006. Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change. J. Climate 19:3989–4008 [Google Scholar]
  31. Seager R, Hoerling M, Schubert S, Wang HL, Lyon B. 31.  et al. 2015. Causes of the 2011–14 California drought. J. Climate 28:186997–7024 [Google Scholar]
  32. Hoerling M, Kumar A, Dole R, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Eischeid J. 32.  et al. 2013. Anatomy of an extreme event. J. Clim. 26:2811–32 [Google Scholar]
  33. Dong B, Sutton R, Shaffrey L, Wilcox L. 33.  2016. The 2015 European heat wave. See Ref. 65 S5–10
  34. Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson-Delmotte V, Codron F. 34.  2010. Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37:L20704 [Google Scholar]
  35. Vautard R, Yiou P, Otto F, Stott P, Christidis N. 35.  et al. 2016. Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events. Environ. Res. Lett. 11:11114009 [Google Scholar]
  36. Yiou P, Jézéquel A, Naveau P, Otto FEL, Vautard R, Vrac M. 36.  2017. A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 3:17–31 [Google Scholar]
  37. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Shepherd TG. 37.  2015. Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat. Clim. Change 5:725–30 [Google Scholar]
  38. Meredith EP, Semenov VA, Maraun D, Park W, Chernokulsky AV. 38.  2015. Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation event. Nat. Geosci. 8:615–19 [Google Scholar]
  39. van Oldenborgh GJ, Philip S, Aalbers E, Vautard R, Otto F. 39.  et al. 2016. Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Discuss. doi:10.5194/hess-2016-308
  40. Otto FEL, Boyd E, Jones RG, Cornforth RJ, James R. 40.  et al. 2015. Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Clim. Change 132:531–43 [Google Scholar]
  41. Diffenbaugh NS, Swain DL, Touma D. 41.  2015. Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California. PNAS 112:133931–36 [Google Scholar]
  42. Mote P, Rupp D, Li S, Sharp D, Otto F. 42.  et al. 2016. Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43:10980–88 [Google Scholar]
  43. Hannart A, Pearl J, Otto FEL, Naveau P, Ghil M. 43.  2016. Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97:99–110 [Google Scholar]
  44. Pearl J. 44.  2000. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  45. Stott P, Walton P. 45.  2013. Attribution of climate-related events: understanding stakeholder needs. Weather 68:274–79 [Google Scholar]
  46. van der Wiel K, Kapnick SB, van Oldenborgh GJ, Whan K, Philip S. 46.  et al. 2017. Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 21:897–921 [Google Scholar]
  47. Mitchell D. 47.  2016. Human influences on heat-related health indicators during the 2015 Egyptian heat wave. See Ref. 65 S70–74
  48. Sippel S, Otto FEL, Flach M, van Oldenborgh GJ. 48.  2016. The role of anthropogenic warming in 2015 central European heat waves. See Ref. 65 S51–56
  49. Alexander LV. 49.  2016. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim. Extrem. 11:4–16 [Google Scholar]
  50. Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J. 50.  et al. 2015. The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci. Data 2:150066 [Google Scholar]
  51. Joyce RJ, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA, Xie P. 51.  2004. CMORPH: a method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J. Hydromet. 5:487–503 [Google Scholar]
  52. Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK. 52.  et al. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Change 2:851–70 [Google Scholar]
  53. Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC. 53.  et al., eds. 2013. Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed TF Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen et al.741–866 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  54. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Wehner M. 54.  2013. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Clim. Change 119:345–57 [Google Scholar]
  55. Edwards LM, Bunkers MJ, Abatzoglou JT, Todey DP, Parker LE. 55.  2014. October 2013 blizzard in western South Dakota. See Ref. 63 S23–26
  56. Sippel S, Otto F, Forkel M, Allen M, Guillod B. 56.  et al. 2016. A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7:171–88 [Google Scholar]
  57. King AD, van Oldenborgh GJ, Karoly DJ, Lewis SC, Cullen H. 57.  2015. Attribution of the record high central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences. Environ. Res. Lett. 10:054002 [Google Scholar]
  58. Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N. 58.  et al. 2013. Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TF Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen et al.867–952 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  59. Huggel C, Stone D, Aufhammer M, Hansen G. 59.  2013. Loss and damage attribution. Nat. Clim. Change 3:694–96 [Google Scholar]
  60. Bergaoui K, Mitchell D, Zaaboul R, McDonnell R, Otto FEL, Allen M. 60.  2015. The contribution of human-induced climate change to the drought of 2014 in the southern Levant region. See Ref. 64 S66–70
  61. Solow A. 61.  2015. Extreme weather, made by us?. Science 349:1444–45 [Google Scholar]
  62. Peterson TC, Hoerling MP, Herring SC, Stott PA. 62.  2014. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: From a Climate Perspective. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94:12S1–S74
  63. Herring SC, Hoerling MP, Peterson TC, Stott PA. 63.  2014. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: From a Climate Perspective. Spec. Suppl. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95:9S1–S96
  64. Herring SC, Hoerling MP, Kossin JP, Peterson TC, Stott PA. 64.  2015. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Spec. Suppl. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96:12S1–S172
  65. Herring SC, Hoell A, Hoerling MP, Kossin JP, CJ Schreck III, Stott PA. 65.  2016. Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97:12S1–S145
  66. Murakami H, Vecchi GA, Delworth TI, Paffendorf K, Gudgel R. 66.  et al. 2015. Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability on the 2014 Hawaiian hurricane season. See Ref. 64 S115–19
  67. Cramer W, Yohe GW, Auffhammer M, Huggel C, Molau U. 67.  et al. 2014. Detection and attribution of observed impacts. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al.979–1037 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  68. Hansen G, Stone D. 68.  2016. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6:532–37 [Google Scholar]
  69. Stone DA, Allen MR. 69.  2005. The end-to-end attribution problem: from emissions to impacts. Clim. Change 71:303–18 [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847
Loading
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error