1932
0
  1. Home
  2. A-Z Publications
  3. Annual Review of Political Science
  4. Volume 19, 2016
  5. Article

Annual Review of Political Science

Volume 19, 2016

Policy Making for the Long Term in Advanced Democracies

Abstract

A range of policy problems—from climate change to pension sustainability to skill shortages—confront governments with intertemporal dilemmas: trade-offs between maximizing social welfare in the present and taking care of the future. There is, moreover, substantial variation in the degree to which democratic governments are willing to invest in long-term social goods. Surprisingly, the literature on the politics of public policy has paid little explicit attention to timing as a dimension of policy choice, focusing almost exclusively on matters of cross-sectional distribution. This article develops a framework for explaining intertemporal policy choices in democracies by adapting findings from the literatures on distributive politics, political economy, and political behavior. The article makes a case for analyzing the politics of the long term as a struggle over how welfare should be allocated across groups and over how policy effects should be distributed through time.

Keyword(s): distributive politics, group politics, information, institutions, intertemporal policy choice, uncertainty
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103
2016-05-11
2024-04-18
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/polisci/19/1/annurev-polisci-110813-034103.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Alesina A, Tabellini G. 1988. Credibility and politics. Eur. Econ. Rev. 32:542–50 [Google Scholar]
  2. Anderson CJ. 2000. Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Elect. Stud. 19:151–70 [Google Scholar]
  3. Anderson CJ. 2007. The end of economic voting? Contingency dilemmas and the limits of democratic accountability. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 10:271–96 [Google Scholar]
  4. Arceneaux K. 2012. Cognitive biases and the strength of political arguments. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 56:271–85 [Google Scholar]
  5. Arnold RD. 1990. The Logic of Congressional Action New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  6. Bailey I, Rupp S. 2004. Politics, industry and the regulation of industrial greenhouse-gas emissions in the UK and Germany. Eur. Environ. 14:235–50 [Google Scholar]
  7. Baldwin P. 1990. The Politics of Social Solidarity: Class Bases of the European Welfare State 1875–1975 Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  8. Baumgartner FR, Breunig C, Green-Pedersen C, Jones BD, Mortensen PB. et al. 2009. Punctuated equilibrium in comparative perspective. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 53:603–20 [Google Scholar]
  9. Baumgartner FR, Jones BD. 2009. Agendas and Instability in American Politics Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  10. Bernauer T. 2013. Climate change politics. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 16:421–48 [Google Scholar]
  11. Birkland TA. 1998. Focusing events, mobilization, and agenda setting. J. Public Policy 18:53–74 [Google Scholar]
  12. Blyth M. 2002. Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  13. Bonoli G. 1997. Classifying welfare states: a two-dimension approach. J. Soc. Policy 26:351–72 [Google Scholar]
  14. Bonoli G. 2000. The Politics of Pension Reform: Institutions and Policy Change in Western Europe Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  15. Boston J. 2015. Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow. Unpublished manuscript
  16. Boston J, Stuart T. 2015. Protecting the rights of future generations: Are constitutional mechanisms the answer?. Policy Q. 11:60–71 [Google Scholar]
  17. Brunner EJ, Squires T. 2013. The bargaining power of teachers' unions and the allocation of school resources. J. Urban Econ. 76:15–27 [Google Scholar]
  18. Brunner S, Flachsland C, Marschinski R. 2011. Credible commitment in carbon policy. Clim. Policy 12:255–71 [Google Scholar]
  19. Burck J, Bals C, Bohnenberger K. 2011. The Climate Change Performance Index Results 2012 Bonn, Ger.: Germanwatch, Clim. Action Netw. Eur.
  20. Campbell AL, Lynch J. 2000. Whose “gray power”? Elderly voters, elderly lobbies, and welfare reform in Italy and the United States. Ital. Polit. Soc. 53:11–39 [Google Scholar]
  21. Carey JM. 1998. Term Limits and Legislative Representation New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  22. Carey JM, Niemi RG, Powell LW. 1998. The effects of term limits on state legislatures. Legislative Stud. Q. 23:271–300 [Google Scholar]
  23. Carson JL, Crespin MH. 2004. The effect of state redistricting methods on electoral competition in United States House of Representatives races. State Polit. Policy Q. 4:455–69 [Google Scholar]
  24. Chanley VA, Rudolph TJ, Rahn WM. 2000. The origins and consequences of public trust in government: a time series analysis. Public Opin. Q. 64:239–56 [Google Scholar]
  25. Clinch JP, Dunne L. 2006. Environmental tax reform: an assessment of social responses in Ireland. Energy Policy 34:950–59 [Google Scholar]
  26. Delli Carpini MX, Keeter S. 1996. What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  27. Duch RM, Stevenson RT. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  28. Eckles DL, Schaffner BF. 2010. Loss aversion and the framing of the health care reform debate. The Forum8 doi: 10.2202/1540-8884.1359
  29. Esping-Andersen G. 1990. The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  30. Fiorina MP. 1978. Economic retrospective voting in American national elections: a micro-analysis. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 22:426–43 [Google Scholar]
  31. Fishman PA, Ebel BE, Garrison MM, Christakis DA, Wiehe SE, Rivara FP. 2005. Cigarette tax increase and media campaign: cost of reducing smoking-related deaths. Am. J. Prev. Med. 29:19–26 [Google Scholar]
  32. Franzese RJ. 2002. Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 5:369–421 [Google Scholar]
  33. Frederick S. 2003. Measuring intergenerational time preference: Are future lives valued less?. J. Risk Uncertain. 26:39–53 [Google Scholar]
  34. Frederick S, Loewenstein G, O'Donoghue T. 2002. Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. J. Econ. Lit. 40:351–401 [Google Scholar]
  35. Garrett G. 1993. The politics of structural change: Swedish social democracy and Thatcherism in comparative perspective. Comp. Polit. Stud. 25:521–47 [Google Scholar]
  36. Geddes B. 1994. Politician's Dilemma: Building State Capacity in Latin America Berkeley: Univ. Calif. Press
  37. Hall PA. 1993. Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state. Comp. Polit. 25:275–96 [Google Scholar]
  38. Harrison K. 1996. Passing the Buck: Federalism and Canadian Environmental Policy Vancouver: Univ. B.C. Press
  39. Harrison K, Sundstrom LM. 2010. Global Commons, Domestic Decisions: The Comparative Politics of Climate Change Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  40. Healy A, Malhotra N. 2009. Myopic voters and natural disaster policy. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 103:387–406 [Google Scholar]
  41. Healy A, Malhotra N. 2013. Retrospective voting reconsidered. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 16:285–306 [Google Scholar]
  42. Heclo H. 1974. Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden: From Relief to Income Maintenance New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  43. Henisz WJ. 2000. The institutional environment for economic growth. Econ. Polit. 12:1–31 [Google Scholar]
  44. Hetherington MJ. 2005. Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  45. Hibbs DA. 1977. Political parties and macroeconomic policy. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 71:1467–87 [Google Scholar]
  46. Hicks T. 2013. Partisan strategy and path dependence: the post-war emergence of health systems in the UK and Sweden. Comp. Polit. 45:207–26 [Google Scholar]
  47. Hovi J, Sprinz DF, Underdal A. 2009. Implementing long-term climate policy: time inconsistency, domestic politics, international anarchy. Glob. Environ. Polit. 9:20–39 [Google Scholar]
  48. Hoxby CM. 1996. How teachers' unions affect education production. Q. J. Econ. 111:3671–718 [Google Scholar]
  49. Hoxby CM, Leigh A. 2004. Pulled away or pushed out? Explaining the decline of teacher aptitude in the United States. Am. Econ. Rev. 94:2236–40 [Google Scholar]
  50. Huber E, Stephens JD. 2001. Development and Crisis of the Welfare State: Parties and Policies in Global Markets Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  51. Huber JD, Shipan CR. 2002. Deliberate Discretion? The Institutional Foundations of Bureaucratic Autonomy New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  52. Immergut EM. 1992a. Health Politics: Interests and Institutions in Western Europe New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  53. Immergut EM. 1992b. The rules of the game: the logic of health policy-making in France, Switzerland, and Sweden. Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis S Steinmo, K Thelen, F Longstreth 57–89 New York: Cambridge Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  54. Jacobs AM. 2008. The politics of when: redistribution, investment, and policymaking for the long term. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 38:193–220 [Google Scholar]
  55. Jacobs AM. 2011. Governing for the Long Term: Democracy and the Politics of Investment New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  56. Jacobs AM, Matthews JS. 2012. Why do citizens discount the future? Public opinion and the timing of policy consequences. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 42:903–35 [Google Scholar]
  57. Jacobs AM, Matthews JS. 2015. Policy attitudes in institutional context: rules, uncertainty, and the mass politics of public investment. Am. J. Polit. Sci. In press. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12209
  58. Jones BD, Baumgartner FR. 2005. The Politics of Attention: How Government Prioritizes Problems Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  59. Kahneman D, Tversky A. 1984. Choices, values, and frames. Am. Psychol. 39:341–50 [Google Scholar]
  60. Katzenstein PJ. 1985. Small States in World Markets: Industrial Policy in Europe Ithaca, NY: Cornell Univ. Press
  61. Key VO, Cummings MC. 1966. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936–1960 Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press
  62. King G, Alt JE, Burns NE, Laver M. 1990. A unified model of cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 34:846–71 [Google Scholar]
  63. King RF. 1993. Money, Time, and Politics: Investment Tax Subsidies and American Democracy New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  64. Kingdon JW. 1984. Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies New York: HarperCollins
  65. Knight B, Levinson A. 1999. Rainy day funds and state government savings. Natl. Tax J. 52:459–72 [Google Scholar]
  66. Korpi W. 1983. The Democratic Class Struggle Boston, MA: Routledge & K. Paul
  67. Kramer GH. 1971. Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 65:131–43 [Google Scholar]
  68. Kuklinski JH, Quirk PD, Jerit J, Schwieder D, Rich RF. 2000. Misinformation and the currency of democratic citizenship. J. Polit. 62:790–816 [Google Scholar]
  69. Lewis-Beck M, Stegmaier M. 2000. Economic determinants of election outcomes. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 3:183–219 [Google Scholar]
  70. Lijphart A. 1969. Consociational democracy. World Polit. 21:207–25 [Google Scholar]
  71. Lindvall J. 2010. Power sharing and reform capacity. J. Theor. Polit. 22:359–76 [Google Scholar]
  72. Lochner L, Moretti E. 2004. The effect of education on crime: evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. Am. Econ. Rev. 94:155–89 [Google Scholar]
  73. MacKenzie M. 2016. Institutional design and sources of short-termism. Institutions for Future Generations I González-Ricoy, A Gosseries Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ Press In press [Google Scholar]
  74. MacKenzie M, Caluwaerts D. 2015. Deliberation and long-term thinking Presented at Can. Polit. Sci. Assoc. Annu. Conf., Ottawa, ON, June 2–4
  75. Mahoney J. 2000. Path dependence in historical sociology. Theory Soc. 29:507–48 [Google Scholar]
  76. Martin CJ. 2000. Stuck in Neutral: Business and the Politics of Human Capital Investment Policy Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  77. Martin CJ, Swank D. 2012. The Political Construction of Business Interests: Coordination, Growth, and Equality New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  78. McNollgast 1999. The political origins of the Administrative Procedure Act. J. Law Econ. Organ. 15:180–217 [Google Scholar]
  79. Meirowitz A. 2008. Electoral contests, incumbency advantages, and campaign finance. J. Polit. 70:681–99 [Google Scholar]
  80. Metcalf GE, Weisbach D. 2009. The design of a carbon tax. Harvard Environ. Law Rev. 33:499–556 [Google Scholar]
  81. Mettler S. 2011. The Submerged State: How Invisible Government Policies Undermine American Democracy Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  82. Mityakov S, Rühl C. 2009. The Stern Review on climate change: inconvenient sensitivities. Energy Environ. 20:779–98 [Google Scholar]
  83. Moe T. 1990. The politics of structural choice: toward a theory of public bureaucracy. Organization Theory: From Chester Barnard to the Present and Beyond O Williamson 116–53 New York: Oxford Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  84. Moe TM, Caldwell M. 1994. The institutional foundations of democratic government: a comparison of presidential and parliamentary systems. J. Inst. Theor. Econ. 150:171–95 [Google Scholar]
  85. Morgan KJ, Campbell AL. 2011. The Delegated Welfare State: Medicare, Markets, and the Governance of Social Policy New York: Oxford Univ. Press
  86. Nincic M. 1997. Loss aversion and the domestic context of military intervention. Polit. Res. Q. 50:97–120 [Google Scholar]
  87. Nordhaus WD. 1975. The political business cycle. Rev. Econ. Stud. 42:169–90 [Google Scholar]
  88. Nordhaus WD. 2008. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  89. Nores M, Belfield CR, Barnett WS, Schweinhart L. 2005. Updating the economic impacts of the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program. Educ. Eval. Policy Anal. 27:245–61 [Google Scholar]
  90. North DC, Weingast BR. 1989. Constitutions and commitment: the evolution of institutions governing public choice in seventeenth-century England. J. Econ. Hist. 49:803–32 [Google Scholar]
  91. OECD (Organ. Econ. Coop. Dev.) 2013. Pensions at a Glance 2013: OECD and G20 Indicators Paris: OECD
  92. OECD (Organ. Econ. Coop. Dev.) 2015a. Government at a Glance 2015 Paris: OECD
  93. OECD (Organ. Econ. Coop. Dev.) 2015b. Public spending on education (indicator). https://data.oecd.org/eduresource/public-spending-on-education.htm [Google Scholar]
  94. Olson M. 1982. The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  95. Orloff AS. 1993. The Politics of Pensions: A Comparative Analysis of Britain, Canada, and the United States, 1880–1940 Madison: Univ. Wisc. Press
  96. Patashnik E. 2000. Putting Trust in the U.S. Budget: Federal Trust Funds and the Politics of Commitment. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  97. Patashnik EM. 2008. Reforms at Risk: What Happens After Major Policy Changes Are Enacted Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  98. Persson T, Tabellini G. 1994. Representative democracy and capital taxation. J. Public Econ. 55:53–70 [Google Scholar]
  99. Pierson P. 1994. Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  100. Pierson P. 2004. Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  101. Powell GB, Whitten GD. 1993. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 37:391–414 [Google Scholar]
  102. Przeworski A. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  103. Przeworski A, Wallerstein M. 1982. The structure of class conflict in democratic capitalist societies. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 76:215–38 [Google Scholar]
  104. Quattrone GA, Tversky A. 1988. Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 82:719–36 [Google Scholar]
  105. Rivara FP, Ebel BE, Garrison MM, Christakis DA, Wiehe SE, Levy DT. 2004. Prevention of smoking-related deaths in the United States. Am. J. Prev. Med. 27:118–25 [Google Scholar]
  106. Rogoff K. 1990. Equilibrium political budget cycles. Am. Econ. Rev. 80:21–36 [Google Scholar]
  107. Scartascini C, Stein E, Tommasi M. 2010. Veto players and policy trade-offs: an intertemporal approach to study the effects of political institutions on policy Inter-Am. Dev. Bank Work. Pap. Ser. No. IDB-WP-159, Washington, DC
  108. Scartascini C, Stein E, Tommasi M. 2013. Political institutions, intertemporal cooperation, and the quality of public policies. J. Appl. Econ. 16:1–32 [Google Scholar]
  109. Schludi M. 2005. The Reform of Bismarckian Pension Systems: A Comparison of Pension Politics in Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Sweden Amsterdam: Amsterdam Univ. Press
  110. Schreurs MA. 2002. Environmental Politics in Japan, Germany, and the United States Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  111. Schultz KA. 1995. The politics of the political business cycle. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 25:79–99 [Google Scholar]
  112. Scruggs L. 2001. Is there really a link between neo-corporatism and environmental performance? Updated evidence and new data for the 1980s and 1990s. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 31:4686–92 [Google Scholar]
  113. Scruggs LA. 1999. Institutions and environmental performance in seventeen Western democracies. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 29:1–31 [Google Scholar]
  114. Shepsle KA. 1991. Discretion, institutions, and the problem of government commitment. Social Theory for a Changing Society P Bourdieu, J Coleman 245–65 Boulder, CO: Western Press [Google Scholar]
  115. Simonsen B, Robbins MD. 2003. Reasonableness, satisfaction, and willingness to pay property taxes. Urban Aff. Rev. 38:831–54 [Google Scholar]
  116. Skocpol T. 1992. Protecting Soldiers and Mothers: The Political Origins of Social Policy in the United States Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press
  117. Skolnikoff EB. 1999. The role of science in policy: the climate change debate in the United States. Environment 41:16–20, 42–45 [Google Scholar]
  118. Smart M, Sturm DM. 2013. Term limits and electoral accountability. J. Public Econ. 107:93–102 [Google Scholar]
  119. Sprinz DF. 2009. Long-term environmental policy: definition, knowledge, future research. Glob. Environ. Polit. 9:1–8 [Google Scholar]
  120. Steinmo S. 1996. Taxation and Democracy: Swedish, British, and American Approaches to Financing the Modern State New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
  121. Stern N. 2006. The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change London: HM Treas.
  122. Stokes SC. 1996. Public opinion and market reforms: the limits of economic voting. Comp. Polit. Stud. 29:499–519 [Google Scholar]
  123. Stone RW. 2009. Sharing risk in international politics. Glob. Environ. Polit. 9:40–60 [Google Scholar]
  124. Streeck W, Schmitter PC. 1985. Community, market, state—and associations? The prospective contribution of interest governance to social order. Eur. Sociol. Rev. 1:119–38 [Google Scholar]
  125. Sumaila R, Suatoni E. 2005. Fish Economics: The Benefits of Rebuilding U.S. Ocean Fish Populations. Vancouver: Fish. Econ. Res. Unit, Fish. Cent., Univ. B.C.
  126. Thaler R. 1980. Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 1:39–60 [Google Scholar]
  127. Tsebelis G. 2002. Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  128. Victor DG. 2011. Global Warming Gridlock: Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  129. Villafuerte M, Ossowski R, Thomas T, Medas PA. 2008. Managing the Oil Revenue Boom Washington, DC: Int. Monet. Fund
  130. Vogel D. 1986. National Styles of Regulation Ithaca, NY: Cornell Univ. Press
  131. Weaver RK. 1986. The politics of blame avoidance. J. Public Policy 6:371–98 [Google Scholar]
  132. Weaver RK. 2003. Cutting old-age pensions. The Government Taketh Away: The Politics of Pain in the United States and Canada, ed. LA Pal, RK Weaver 41–70 Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  133. Weyland K. 1998. Swallowing the bitter pill: sources of popular support for neoliberal reform in Latin America. Comp. Polit. Stud. 31:539–68 [Google Scholar]
  134. Williamson JB. 2011. The future of retirement security. Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences RH Binstock, LK George 281–94 Burlington, MA: Academic [Google Scholar]
  135. Wilson JQ. 1980. The politics of regulation. The Politics of Regulation JQ Wilson 357–94 New York: Basic Books [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103
Loading
Policy Making for the Long Term in Advanced Democracies
Annual Review of Political Science 19, 433 (2016); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article

Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error