1932

Abstract

The concept of environmental migrants occurs frequently in the policy debate, in particular with regard to climate change and the incidence of such migration in low-income countries. This article reviews the economic studies of environmentally induced migration. It includes recent empirical analyses that try to link environmental change to migration flows and the spatial distribution of population. A consensus seems to emerge that there is little likelihood of large increases in international migration flows due to climate variability. The evidence to date shows that regional migration will be affected, however, either on the African continent or internally, within country borders. Theoretically, environmentally induced migration can be analyzed using different frameworks: the classical Harris-Todaro model of rural-urban migration, new economic geography models, models grounded in environmental economics of pollution externalities with free factor mobility, and the new economics of labor migration. I review some of the latest attempts to analyze environmentally induced migration theoretically and the policy-relevant conclusions that can be drawn.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031
2015-10-05
2024-04-23
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/resource/7/1/annurev-resource-100814-125031.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Afifi T, Warner K. 2008. The impact of environmental degradation on migration flows across countries. EHS Work. Pap. 5/2008, U. N. Univ.
  2. Alem Y, Bezabih M, Kassie M, Zikhali P. 2010. Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia. Agric. Econ. 41:2165–75 [Google Scholar]
  3. Alexeev A, Good DH, Reuveny R. 2011. Climate change, weather disasters and international migration. Presented at the EAERE 18th Annu. Conf., Special Session on Environmentally Induced Migration, Rome, July 1
  4. Anderson JE. 2011. The gravity model. Annu. Rev. Econ. 3:1133–60 [Google Scholar]
  5. Auffhammer M, Hsiang SM, Schlenker W, Sobel A. 2013. Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 7:2181–98 [Google Scholar]
  6. Badiani R, Safir A. 2010.Coping with aggregate shocks: temporary migration and other labor responses to climatic shocks in rural India. Unpub. Pap., World Bank
  7. Bai Y, Kung JK. 2011. Climate shocks and sino-nomadic conflict. Rev. Econ. Stat. 93:3970–81 [Google Scholar]
  8. Banzhaf S, Walsh RP. 2008. Do people vote with their feet? An empirical test of Tiebout’s mechanism. Am. Econ. Rev. 98:3843–63 [Google Scholar]
  9. Barrett CB, Reardon T, Webb P. 2001. Non-farm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural Africa: concepts, dynamics, and policy implications. Food Policy 26:4315–31 [Google Scholar]
  10. Barrios S, Bertinelli L, Strobl E. 2006. Climatic change and rural-urban migration: the case of sub-Saharan Africa. J. Urban Econ. 60:3357–71 [Google Scholar]
  11. Barrios S, Bertinelli L, Strobl E. 2010. Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: a neglected cause of the African growth tragedy. Rev. Econ. Stat. 92:2350–66 [Google Scholar]
  12. Beegle K, De Weerdt J, Dercon S. 2011. Migration and economic mobility in Tanzania: evidence from a tracking survey. Rev. Econ. Stat. 93:31010–33 [Google Scholar]
  13. Beine M, Parsons C. 2015. Climatic factors as determinants of international migration. Scand. J. Econ. 117:2723–67 [Google Scholar]
  14. Bezabih M, Gebreegziabher Z, GebreMedhin L, Kohlin G. 2010. Participation in off-farm employment, rainfall patterns and rate of time preferences: the case of Ethiopia. Discuss. Pap. 10-21, Environ. Dev.
  15. Bhattacharya H, Innes R. 2008. An empirical exploration of the population-environment nexus in India. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 90:4883–901 [Google Scholar]
  16. Black R, Bennett SRG, Thomas SM, Beddington JR. 2011. Migration as adaptation. Nature 478:447–49 [Google Scholar]
  17. Black R, Knighton D, Skeldon R, Coppard D, Murata A, Schmidt-Verkerk K. 2008. Demographics and climate change: future trends and their policy implications for migration. Work. Pap. T27, Dev. Res. Cent. Migr. Glob. Poverty, Univ. Sussex
  18. Bohra-Mishra P, Oppenheimer M, Hsiang SM. 2014. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. PNAS 111:279780–85 [Google Scholar]
  19. Boustan LP, Kahn M, Rhode PW. 2012. Moving to higher ground: migration response to natural disasters in the early twentieth century. Am. Econ. Rev. 102:3238–44 [Google Scholar]
  20. Brock WA, Engström G, Xepapadeas A. 2014. Spatial climate-economic models in the design of optimal climate policies across locations. Eur. Econ. Rev. 69:78–103 [Google Scholar]
  21. Burke M, Hsiang SM, Miguel E. 2014. Climate and conflict. NBER Work. Pap. 20598
  22. Cameron T, McConnaha IT. 2006. Evidence of environmental migration. Land Econ. 82:2273–90 [Google Scholar]
  23. Carvajal L, Medalho Pereira I. 2009. Climate shocks and human mobility: evidence from Nicaragua. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1599667 [Crossref]
  24. Chichilnisky G, Di Matteo M. 1998. Trade, migration and environment: a general equilibrium analysis. Sustainability: Dynamics and Uncertainty Chichilnisky G, Heal G, Vercelli A. 109–27 Dordrecht, Neth.:: Kluwer Acad. [Google Scholar]
  25. Christian Aid 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis. London: Christian Aid
  26. Ciucci J. 2014. Dynamiques d’agglomération et de dispersion des activités polluantes: étude des limites des politiques environnementales [Agglomeration and spreading dynamics of polluting activities: a study of environmental policy limits]. Rev. Econ. Reg. Urbaine 2014:2397–409 [Google Scholar]
  27. Coniglio N, Pesce G. 2015. Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis. Environ. Dev. Econ. In press [Google Scholar]
  28. Copeland BR, Taylor MS. 1999. Trade, spatial separation and the environment. J. Int. Econ. 47:137–68 [Google Scholar]
  29. Dallmann I, Millock K. 2013. Climate variability and internal migration: a test on Indian inter-state migration. CES Work. Pap. 2013.45, Univ. Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
  30. Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA. 2009. Temperature and income: reconciling new cross-sectional and panel estimates. Am. Econ. Rev. 99:2198–204 [Google Scholar]
  31. Desmet K, Rossi-Hansberg E. 2012. On the spatial impact of global warming. NBER Work. Pap. 18546
  32. Di Falco S, Veronesi M, Yesuf M. 2011. Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? A micro-perspective from Ethiopia. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93:3829–46 [Google Scholar]
  33. Di Falco S, Yesuf M, Kohlin G, Ringler C. 2012. Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin. Environ. Resour. Econ. 52:4457–78 [Google Scholar]
  34. Dillon A, Mueller V, Salau S. 2011. Migratory responses to agricultural risk in northern Nigeria. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93:41048–61 [Google Scholar]
  35. El Hinnawi E. 1985. Environmental refugees. Rep., U. N. Environ. Progr.
  36. Elbers C, Withagen CA. 2004. Environmental policy, population dynamics and agglomeration. Contrib. Econ. Anal. Policy 3:23 [Google Scholar]
  37. Eppink FV, Withagen CA. 2009. Spatial patterns of biodiversity conservation in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Resour. Energy Econ. 31:275–88 [Google Scholar]
  38. Ezra M, Kiros G-E. 2001. Rural out-migration in the drought prone areas of Ethiopia: a multi-level analysis. Int. Migr. Rev. 35:3749–71 [Google Scholar]
  39. Fafchamps M, Udry C, Czukas K. 1998. Drought and saving in West Africa: Are livestock a buffer stock?. J. Dev. Econ. 55:2273–305 [Google Scholar]
  40. Feng S, Krueger AB, Oppenheimer M. 2010. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration. PNAS 107:3214257–62 [Google Scholar]
  41. Feng S, Oppenheimer M, Schlenker W. 2012. Climate change, crop yields and internal migration in the United States. NBER Work. Pap. 17734
  42. Findley S. 1994. Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. Int. Migr. Rev. 28:3539–53 [Google Scholar]
  43. Fisher M, Chaudhury M, McCusker B. 2010. Do forests help rural households to adapt to climate variability? Evidence from southern Malawi. World Dev. 38:91241–50 [Google Scholar]
  44. Gemenne F. 2011. Why the numbers do not add up: a review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Glob. Environ. Change 21:Suppl. 141–49 [Google Scholar]
  45. Government Office for Science. 2011. Foresight: migration and global environmental change. Final Proj. Rep., Government Office for Science
  46. Gray C. 2009. Environment, land, and rural out-migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Dev. 37:2457–68 [Google Scholar]
  47. Gray C, Mueller V. 2012a. Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Dev. 40:1134–45 [Google Scholar]
  48. Gray C, Mueller V. 2012b. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. PNAS 109:166000–5 [Google Scholar]
  49. Gröschl J. 2012. Natural disasters and international migration: a gravity perspective. Presented at EEA-ESEM Annu. Conf., Malaga, Spain, Aug. 27–31
  50. Gutmann M, Dean G, Lauster N, Peri A. 2005. Two population-environment regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Popul. Environ. 27:2191–225 [Google Scholar]
  51. Haavio M. 2005a. Migration and environment: Instrument choice matters. Discuss. Pap. 51, Helsinki Cent. Econ. Res.
  52. Haavio M. 2005b. Transboundary pollution and household mobility: Are they equivalent?. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 50:2252–75 [Google Scholar]
  53. Halliday T. 2006. Migration, risk and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 54:4893–925 [Google Scholar]
  54. Halliday T. 2012. Intra-household labor supply, migration, and subsistence constraints in a risky environment: evidence from rural El Salvador. Eur. Econ. Rev. 56:61001–19 [Google Scholar]
  55. Harris JR, Todaro MP. 1970. Migration, unemployment and development: a two-sector analysis. Am. Econ. Rev. 60:126–42 [Google Scholar]
  56. Hassani-Mahmooei B, Parris B. 2012. Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model. Environ. Dev. Econ. 17:6763–80 [Google Scholar]
  57. Henry S, Piché V, Ouédraogo D, Lambin E. 2004a. Descriptive analysis of the individual migratory pathways according to environmental typologies. Popul. Environ. 25:5397–422 [Google Scholar]
  58. Henry S, Schoumaker B, Beauchemin C. 2004b. The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: a multi-level event history analysis in Burkina Faso. Popul. Environ. 25:5423–60 [Google Scholar]
  59. Hoel M, Shapiro P. 2003. Population mobility and transboundary environmental problems. J. Public Econ. 87:5–61013–24 [Google Scholar]
  60. Hoel M, Shapiro P. 2004. Transboundary environmental problems with mobile but heterogeneous population. Environ. Resour. Econ. 27:3265–72 [Google Scholar]
  61. Homer-Dixon T. 1991. On the threshold: environmental change as causes of acute conflict. Int. Secur. 16:276–116 [Google Scholar]
  62. Hornbeck R. 2012. The enduring impact of the American Dust Bowl: short- and long-run adjustments to environmental catastrophe. Am. Econ. Rev. 102:41477–507 [Google Scholar]
  63. Hosoe M, Naito T. 2006. Trans-boundary pollution transmission and regional agglomeration effects. Pap. Reg. Sci. 85:199–119 [Google Scholar]
  64. Hsiang SM, Jina AS. 2013. The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: evidence from 6,700 cyclones. NBER Work. Pap. 20352
  65. Hsiang SM, Narita D. 2012. Adaptation to cyclone risk: evidence from the global cross-section. Climate Change Econ. 3:21250011 [Google Scholar]
  66. IPCC (Intergov. Panel Climate Change) 2014. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) Rep., IPCC
  67. IOM (Int. Organ. Migr.) 2009. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Geneva: IOM
  68. Kahn M. 2005. The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography and institutions. Rev. Econ. Stat. 87:2271–84 [Google Scholar]
  69. Kazianga H, Udry C. 2006. Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso. J. Dev. Econ. 79:2413–46 [Google Scholar]
  70. Kniveton D, Smith C, Wood S. 2011. Agent-based model simulations on future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso. Glob. Environ. Change 21S:S34–40 [Google Scholar]
  71. Kochar A. 1999. Smoothing consumption by smoothing income: hours-of-work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural India. Rev. Econ. Stat. 81:150–61 [Google Scholar]
  72. Kondoh K. 2006. Transboundary pollution and international migration. Rev. Int. Econ. 14:2248–60 [Google Scholar]
  73. Kondoh K. 2007. Trans-boundary pollution and brain drain migration. Rev. Dev. Econ. 11:2333–45 [Google Scholar]
  74. Kyriakopoulou E, Xepapadeas A. 2013. Environmental policy, first nature advantage and the emergence of economic clusters. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 43:101–16 [Google Scholar]
  75. Lange A, Quaas MF. 2007. Economic geography and the effect of environmental pollution on agglomeration. B.E. J. Econ. Anal. Policy 7:152 [Google Scholar]
  76. Le Blanc D, Perez R. 2008. The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in sub-Saharan Africa. Ecol. Econ. 66:319–36 [Google Scholar]
  77. Lewin PA, Fisher M, Weber B. 2012. Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi. Agric. Econ. 43:2191–204 [Google Scholar]
  78. Marchiori L, Maystadt J-F, Schumacher I. 2012. The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 63:355–74 [Google Scholar]
  79. Marchiori L, Schumacher I. 2011. When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality. J. Popul. Econ. 24:2569–600 [Google Scholar]
  80. Mayda AM. 2010. International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. J. Popul. Econ. 23:41249–74 [Google Scholar]
  81. Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation and Distributional Effects Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar/World Bank
  82. Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Williams L. 2006. The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries. Environ. Dev. Econ. 11:2159–78 [Google Scholar]
  83. Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D. 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am. Econ. Rev. 84:4753–71 [Google Scholar]
  84. Mensah-Bonsu A, Burger K. 2008. A bargaining model of migration. Economics of Poverty, Environment and Natural Resource Use Dellink RB, Ruijs A. 185–208 Berlin/Heidelberg, Ger.: Springer [Google Scholar]
  85. Meze-Hausken E. 2000. Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas?. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 5:4379–406 [Google Scholar]
  86. Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E. 2004. Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach. J. Polit. Econ. 112:4725–53 [Google Scholar]
  87. Munshi K. 2003. Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the U.S. labour market. Q. J. Econ. 118:12549–99 [Google Scholar]
  88. Myers N. 1997. Environmental refugees. Popul. Environ. 19:2167–82 [Google Scholar]
  89. Naudé W. 2009. Natural disasters and international migration from sub-Saharan Africa. Migr. Lett. 6:2165–76 [Google Scholar]
  90. Ortega F, Peri G. 2009. The causes and effects of international migrations: evidence from OECD countries 1980–2005. NBER Work. Pap. 14833
  91. Özden C, Parsons C, Schiff M, Walmsley T. 2011. Where on Earth is everybody? The evolution of global bilateral migration 1960–2000. World Bank Econ. Rev. 25:112–56 [Google Scholar]
  92. Paul BK. 2005. Evidence against disaster-induced migration: the 2004 tornado in north-central Bangladesh. Disasters 29:4370–85 [Google Scholar]
  93. Paxson C, Rouse C. 2008. Returning to New Orleans after Katrina. Am. Econ. Rev. 98:238–42 [Google Scholar]
  94. Perch-Nielsen SL, Bättig MB, Imboden M. 2008. Exploring the link between climate change and migration. Clim. Change 91:375–93 [Google Scholar]
  95. Petracou EV, Xepapadeas A, Yannacopoulos AN. 2014. The bioeconomics of migration: a selective review towards a modelling perspective. Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics Pinto AA, Zilberman D. 539–66 Cham, Switz.: Springer [Google Scholar]
  96. Piguet E. 2010. Linking climate change, environmental degradation and migration: a methodological overview. Clim. Change 1:4517–24 [Google Scholar]
  97. Raleigh C, Jordan L, Salehyan I. 2008. Assessing the impact of climate change on migration and conflict. Commissioned for Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop, World Bank
  98. Reuveny R, Moore WH. 2009. Does environmental degradation influence migration? Emigration to developed countries in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Soc. Sci. Q. 90:3461–79 [Google Scholar]
  99. Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P. 2001. The costs and risks of coping with drought: livelihood impacts and farmers’ responses in Burkina Faso. Clim. Res. 19:119–32 [Google Scholar]
  100. Rose E. 2001. Ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low-income area. J. Dev. Econ. 64:371–88 [Google Scholar]
  101. Rosenzweig MR, Binswanger HP. 1993. Wealth, weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments. Econ. J. 103:41656–78 [Google Scholar]
  102. Rosenzweig MR, Stark O. 1989. Consumption smoothing, migration, and marriage: evidence from rural India. J. Polit. Econ. 97:4905–26 [Google Scholar]
  103. Sandmo A, Wildasin D. 1999. Taxation, migration and pollution. Int. Tax Public Finance 6:39–59 [Google Scholar]
  104. Shah A. 2010. Land degradation and migration in a dryland region in India: extent, nature and determinants. Environ. Dev. Econ. 15:173–96 [Google Scholar]
  105. Silva ECD. 1997. Decentralized and efficient control of transboundary pollution in federal systems. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 32:95–108 [Google Scholar]
  106. Stark O. 1993. The Migration of Labour Cambridge, UK: Blackwell
  107. Stern N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  108. Tawada M, Nakamura A. 2009. Environment and the Harris and Todaro paradoxes. International Trade and Economic Dynamics—Essays in Memory of Koji Shimomura Kamihigashi T, Zhao L. 87–99 Berlin/Heidelberg, Ger.:: Springer [Google Scholar]
  109. Tawada M, Sun S. 2010. Urban pollution, unemployment and national welfare in a dualistic economy. Rev. Dev. Econ. 14:2311–22 [Google Scholar]
  110. Thomas T, Christiaensen L, Do QT, Trung LD. 2010. Natural disasters and household welfare: evidence from Vietnam. Policy Res. Work. Pap. 5491, World Bank
  111. Tiebout C. 1956. A pure theory of local expenditure. J. Polit. Econ. 64:5416–24 [Google Scholar]
  112. Todaro MP. 1969. A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries. Am. Econ. Rev. 59:1138–48 [Google Scholar]
  113. Tol R, Downing TE, Kuik OJ, Smith JB. 2004. Distributional aspects of climate change impacts. Glob. Environ. Change 14:259–72 [Google Scholar]
  114. Viswanathan B, Kumar K. 2015. Weather, agriculture and rural migration: evidence from state and district level migration in India. Environ. Dev. Econ In press [Google Scholar]
  115. Wellisch D. 1994. Interregional spillovers in the presence of perfect and imperfect household mobility. J. Public Econ. 55:2167–84 [Google Scholar]
  116. Wellisch D. 1995. Can household mobility solve basic environmental problems?. Int. Tax Public Finance 2:2245–60 [Google Scholar]
  117. Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I. 2004. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters New York: Routledge, 2nd ed..
  118. Yang D, Choi H. 2007. Are remittances insurance? Evidence from rainfall shocks in the Philippines. World Bank Econ. Rev. 21:2219–48 [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031
Loading
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error