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Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Volume 42, 2017

Toward the Next Generation of Assessment

Abstract

Through integrative assessment, experts evaluate the state of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. In this review, we take stock of recent advances and challenges, rooting our analysis in climate change assessment. In particular, we consider four priorities in assessment: () integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results and understanding, () applying rigorous expert judgment to evidence and its uncertainties, () exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and () incorporating interactions among experts and decision makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, we survey past experiences, current practices, and possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. In our current era of climate and broader global change, integrative assessment can bolster decisions about contested and uncertain futures. We consider both opportunities and pitfalls in synthesizing and encompassing evidence and perspectives. Our aim is to advance transparent assessment for a sustainable future.

Keyword(s): climate change, decision making, deep uncertainty, expert judgment, risk, scenarios
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2017-10-17
2025-04-18
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Toward the Next Generation of Assessment
Annual Review of Environment and Resources 42, 569 (2017); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007
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