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Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Volume 49, 2024

Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios

  • Dominik Wiedenhofer1, Jan Streeck1, Frauke Wiese2, Elena Verdolini3,4,5, Alessio Mastrucci6, Yiyi Ju6,7,8, Benigna Boza-Kiss6, Jihoon Min6, Jonathan Norman9, Hanspeter Wieland1, Nuno Bento10, María Fernanda Godoy León11, Leticia Magalar4,5,12, Andreas Mayer1,13, Simone Gingrich1, Ayami Hayashi14, Joni Jupesta15, Gamze Ünlü6, Leila Niamir6, Tao Cao8, Marianne Zanon-Zotin12,16, Barbara Plank1, Johan Vélez-Henao17, Eric Masanet18, Volker Krey6,19, Keigo Akimoto14, Arnulf Grubler6, Bas van Ruijven6 and Stefan Pauliuk17
  • 1Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria; email: [email protected] 2Department for Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Flensburg, Germany 3Law Department, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy 4Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation), Lecce, Italy 5RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Milan, Italy 6International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 7Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Tokyo, Japan 8Institute for Future Initiatives, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 9School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom 10University Institute of Lisbon (ISCTE), Lisbon, Portugal 11Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium 12Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Program (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 13Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria 14Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Kizugawa, Japan 15Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, United Nations University, Shibuya, Japan 16Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands 17Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany 18Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA 19Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
  • Vol. 49:249-279 (Volume publication date October 2024)
  • First published as a Review in Advance on September 16, 2024
  • Copyright © 2024 by the author(s).
    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See credit lines of images or other third-party material in this article for license information.

Abstract

Developing transformative pathways for industry's compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights into how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socioeconomic activities, and service provisioning that support societal well-being. We review the recent literature modeling the industrial system in low energy and material demand futures, which mitigates environmental impacts without relying on risky future negative emissions and technological fixes. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modeling traditions. We critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provisioning. We find that combined supply- and demand-side measures could reduce current economy-wide material use by 56%, energy use by 40% to 60%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 70% to net zero. We call for strengthened interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modeling traditions and demand-side research to produce more insightful scenarios, and we discuss challenges and recommendations for this emerging field.

Keyword(s): climate change mitigation, ecological economics, IAM, industrial ecology, integrated assessment modeling, sustainable resource use
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2024-10-18
2025-06-19
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Industry Transformations for High Service Provisioning with Lower Energy and Material Demand: A Review of Models and Scenarios
Annual Review of Environment and Resources 49, 249 (2024); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110822-044428
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