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Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application

Volume 12, 2025

Hawkes Models and Their Applications

Abstract

The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system that exhibits the self-exciting property—that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model and its generalizations have been applied in a plethora of disparate domains, though two particularly developed applications are in seismology and in finance. As the original model is elegantly simple, generalizations have been proposed that track marks for each arrival, are multivariate, have a spatial component, are driven by renewal processes, treat time as discrete, and so on. This article creates a cohesive review of the traditional Hawkes model and the modern generalizations, providing details on their construction and simulation algorithms, and giving key references to the appropriate literature for a detailed treatment.

Keyword(s): conditional intensity, discrete-time Hawkes process, dynamic contagion process, epidemic-type aftershock sequence, interval-censored data, Poisson cluster process, renewal Hawkes process, self-exciting point process, space-time ETAS
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2025-03-07
2025-04-28
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Hawkes Models and Their Applications
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application 12, 233 (2025); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034304
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034304
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-statistics-112723-034304
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