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- Volume 16, 2024
Annual Review of Economics - Volume 16, 2024
Volume 16, 2024
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Automation: Theory, Evidence, and Outlook
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 1–25More LessThis article reviews the literature on automation and its impact on labor markets, wages, factor shares, and productivity. I first introduce the task model and explain why this framework offers a compelling way to think about recent labor market trends and the effects of automation technologies. The task model clarifies that automation technologies operate by substituting capital for labor in a widening range of tasks. This substitution reduces costs, creating a positive productivity effect, but it also reduces employment opportunities for workers displaced from automated tasks, creating a negative displacement effect. I survey the empirical literature and conclude that there is wide qualitative support for the implications of task models and the displacement effects of automation. I conclude by discussing shortcomings of the existing literature and avenues for future research.
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Industrial Policy and the Great Divergence
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 27–54More LessWe discuss recent work evaluating the role of the government in shaping the economy during the long nineteenth century, a practice we refer to as industrial policy. States deployed a vast variety of different policies aimed primarily, but not exclusively, at fostering industrialization. A thin but growing literature has started to evaluate the economic effects of these policies, but many questions remain open for study.
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Understanding Spatial Agglomeration: Increasing Returns, Land, and Transportation Costs
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 55–78More LessEconomic activities are concentrated on a small share of inhabitable land. In our view, this agglomeration is the outcome of a trade-off between increasing returns and transportation costs, which capitalizes into land rents. Our second baseline idea is that Tiebout-like sorting provides a general framework to handle a large array of problems in spatial economics. Cities have high housing prices because they are productive and offer high levels of amenities and public goods. Both production and amenity effects capitalize in the land rent at a particular location. Through the process of bidding for land, spatial sorting is the involuntary consequence of a myriad of individual decisions made by agents who pursue their own interests.
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Technology and the Global Economy
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 79–104More LessInterpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behavior at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and discuss how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models.
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Experiments About Institutions
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 105–131More LessInstitutions are a key determinant of economic growth, but the critical junctures in which institutions can change are not precisely defined. For example, such junctures are often identified ex post, raising several methodological problems: a selection on the outcome of institutional change; an inability to study beliefs, which are central to coordination and thus the process of institutional change; and an inability to conduct experiments to identify causal effects. We argue that critical junctures are identifiable in real time as moments of deep uncertainty about future institutions. Consistent with this conception, the papers reviewed (a) examine changes to institutions, i.e., the fundamental rules of the game; (b) are real-time studies of plausible critical junctures; and (c) use field experiments to achieve causal identification. We also advocate for more systematic measurement of beliefs about future institutions to identify critical junctures as they happen and provide an empirical proof of concept. Such work is urgent given contemporary critical junctures arising from democratic backsliding, state fragility, climate change, and conflicts over the rights of the marginalized.
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Moral Boundaries
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 133–157More LessThis article reviews the growing economics literature that studies the politico-economic impacts of heterogeneity in moral boundaries across individuals and cultures. The so-called universalism-versus-particularism cleavage has emerged as a main organizing principle behind various salient features of contemporary political competition, including individual-level and spatial variation in voting, the realignment of rich liberals and poor conservatives, the internal structure of ideology, and the moral content of political messaging. A recurring theme is that the explanatory power of universalism for left-wing policy views and voting is considerably larger than that of traditional economic variables. Looking at the origins of heterogeneity in universalism, an emerging consensus is that cross-group variation is partly economically functional and reflects that morality evolved to support cooperation in economic production. This insight organizes much work on how kinship systems, market exposure, political institutions, and ecology have shaped universalism through their impacts on the relative benefits of localized and impersonal interactions.
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Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 159–184More LessHigh-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to (a) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, (b) assess its potential economic consequences, (c) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, (d) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and (e) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.
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A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 185–212More LessWe survey the weak instrumental variables (IV) literature with the aim of giving simple advice to applied researchers. This literature focuses heavily on the problem of size inflation in two-stage least squares (2SLS) two-tailed t-tests that arises if instruments are weak. A common standard for acceptable instrument strength is a first-stage F of 10, which renders this size inflation modest. However, 2SLS suffers from other important problems that exist at much higher levels of instrument strength. In particular, 2SLS standard errors tend to be artificially small in samples where the 2SLS estimate is close to ordinary least squares (OLS). This power asymmetry means the t-test has inflated power to detect false positive effects when the OLS bias is positive. The Anderson-Rubin (AR) test avoids this problem and should be used in lieu of the t-test even with strong instruments. We illustrate the practical importance of this issue in IV papers published in the American Economic Review from 2011 to 2023. Use of the AR test often reverses t-test results. In particular, IV estimates that are close to OLS and significant according to the t-test are often insignificant according to AR. We also show that for first-stage F in the 10–20 range there is a high probability that OLS estimates will be closer to the truth than 2SLS. Hence we advocate a higher standard of instrument strength in applied work.
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The New Economics of Industrial Policy
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 213–242More LessWe discuss the considerable literature that has developed in recent years providing rigorous evidence on how industrial policies work. This literature is a significant improvement over the earlier generation of empirical work, which was largely correlational and marred by interpretational problems. On the whole, the recent crop of papers offers a more positive take on industrial policy. We review the standard rationales and critiques of industrial policy and provide a broad overview of new empirical approaches to measurement. We discuss how the recent literature, paying close attention to measurement, causal inference, and economic structure, is offering a nuanced and contextual understanding of the effects of industrial policy. We re-evaluate the East Asian experience with industrial policy in light of recent results. Finally, we conclude by reviewing how industrial policy is being reshaped by a new understanding of governance, a richer set of policy instruments beyond subsidies, and the reality of deindustrialization.
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Modern Industrial Policy and the World Trade Organization
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 243–270More LessThis article surveys the economics of industrial policy as it relates to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Motivated by concern that the modern use of industrial policy is emerging in ways that threaten cooperation in the international trading system, the article begins with the basic historical economic framework for tying industrial policy to underlying market failures. It then introduces the dominant economic understanding of the role played by the WTO, examining the WTO's rules on subsidies (and thus industrial policy), the unease with the evolution of the trading system's subsidy rules, gaps in knowledge, and important data and measurement shortcomings. The main part of the article examines four areas in which modern industrial policy operates differently and has become especially important for the trading system: China, supply chain resilience, supply chain responsiveness, and climate change. The article identifies the evidence to date, open questions, and potential paths forward for economic research to help inform policymakers’ efforts to restore international economic cooperation in trade and industrial policy.
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Climate Change Economics over Time and Space
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 271–304More LessWith average temperature ranging from −20°C at the North Pole to 30°C at the Equator and with global warming expected to reach 1.4°C to 4.5°C by the year 2100, it is clear that climate change will have vastly different effects across the globe. Given the abundance of land in northern latitudes, if population and economic activity could freely move across space, the economic cost of global warming would be greatly reduced. However, spatial frictions are real: migrants face barriers, trade and transportation are costly, physical infrastructure is not footloose, and knowledge embedded in clusters of economic activity diffuses only imperfectly. Thus, the economic cost of climate change is intimately connected to these spatial frictions. Building on earlier integrated assessment models (IAMs) that largely ignored space, in the past decade there has been significant progress in developing dynamic spatial integrated assessment models (S-IAMs) aimed at providing a more realistic evaluation of the economic cost of climate change, both locally and globally. This review discusses this progress and provides a guide for future work in this area.
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Negative Interest Rate Policies: A Survey
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 305–328More LessThis article surveys studies on the impact of central bank negative interest rate policies (NIRP). It reviews recent research on the effects of NIRP on financial markets, banks, households, firms, and the macroeconomy. Overall, policy rate cuts when interest rates are negative propagated along the yield curve, with the first policy cut below zero contributing significantly to the fall in longer-term yields. Lending and deposit rates also decreased following the adoption of NIRP. Based on the experience so far, bank lending volumes rose, and bank profits did not significantly deteriorate, although there was considerable heterogeneity in the effects. The impact of NIRP on inflation and output appears to have been comparable to that of conventional interest rate cuts.
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Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations Are Meaningful and Important
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 329–357More LessFor decades, households’ subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review shows that household characteristics and the ways in which households collect and process economic information help us understand previously considered puzzling facts about their subjective expectations. In turn, subjective expectations contribute to explain heterogeneous consumption, saving, investment, and debt choices as well as different reactions by similar households to the same monetary and fiscal policy measures. Matching microdata on households’ characteristics with the price signals the same households observe, their subjective expectations, and their real-world economic decisions is crucial to establishing these facts. Our growing understanding of households’ subjective expectations inspires several theoretical and empirical research directions and begets the design of innovative and more effective policy instruments.
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From Happiness Data to Economic Conclusions
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 359–391More LessHappiness data—survey respondents’ self-reported well-being (SWB)—have become increasingly common in economics research, with recent calls to use them in policymaking. Researchers have used SWB data in novel ways—for example, to learn about welfare or preferences when choice data are unavailable or difficult to interpret. Focusing on leading examples of this pioneering research, the first part of this review uses a simple theoretical framework to reverse-engineer some of the crucial assumptions that underlie existing applications. The second part discusses evidence bearing on these assumptions and provides practical advice to the agencies and institutions that generate SWB data, the researchers who use them, and the policymakers who may use the resulting research. While we advocate creative uses of SWB data in economics, we caution that their use in policy will likely require both additional data collection and further research to better understand the data.
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Central Bank Independence: Views from History and Machine Learning
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 393–428More LessWe assemble an almost complete set of central bank statutes since 1800 to assess the legal independence of central banking institutions. We use these to extend existing indices of legal independence backward and forward in time. We document the trend toward increased independence post 1980 as well as an earlier, more limited movement in the direction of enhanced independence in the 1920s. We apply natural language processing to current statutes to corroborate our human-reader assessment. Using machine-learning methods, we quantify the extent to which topics in those statutes contribute to the independence measure based on our reading of the statutes. The topic with the largest positive contribution to explaining the cross-country variation in central bank independence encompasses disclosure, transparency, and reporting obligations. The topic with the largest negative contribution covers regulatory powers over inter alia securities markets that complicate the central bank's mandate, make accountability more complex, and render independence problematic.
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Fiscal Federalism in the Twenty-First Century
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 429–454More LessFiscal federalism concerns the division of policy responsibilities among different levels of government. Many current economic and policy developments, such as globalization, environmental crises, and rising inequality, may not appear to be favorable to fiscal federalism, yet countries are further decentralizing their fiscal systems. We summarize the efficiency and equity aspects of fiscal decentralization, fiscal competition, fiscal externalities, and intergovernmental grants. The review introduces readers to theoretical reasons for/against a federalist structure. We discuss how federalism relates to classic problems in economics: externalities, inequality, spillovers, information, and aspects of political economy. Our review integrates both theory and empirics, while also focusing on the variety of federal systems in different countries, both developing and developed. We conclude by discussing how fiscal federalism is being shaped by economic, technological, and environmental changes, while discussing the effects of globalization, polarization, and global crises on the future of federal systems.
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Political Inequality
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 455–490More LessInequality in political participation and influence has strongly increased in recent decades, breeding economic inequality. In this review, we focus on three aspects of political inequality: the increasing concentration of both political and charitable donations, the growing gap in descriptive representation, and the persistent lack of substantive representation. Based on the existing literature as well as on novel evidence, we relate these aspects to the recent widening of turnout inequality. We then examine novel forms of participation—e.g., the rise of small donors in the United States—and the efficiency of policies aimed at improving representation. Finally, we discuss new avenues for research.
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Monopsony Power in the Labor Market: From Theory to Policy
José Azar, and Ioana MarinescuVol. 16 (2024), pp. 491–518More LessLabor markets are not perfectly competitive: Monopsony power enables employers to pay workers less than the marginal revenue product of labor. We review three theoretical frameworks explaining monopsony power. Oligopsony models attribute it to strategic interactions among a limited number of firms. Job differentiation models cite imperfect job substitution and heterogeneous worker preferences. Search-and-matching models point to search frictions hindering instantaneous access to all available jobs. We then develop a theory-informed discussion of the empirical evidence on antitrust policies, policies that reduce barriers to job switching, and policies countering monopsony's effects on workers. Preventing mergers and regulating noncompetition agreements can increase wages by preserving competition among employers. Minimum wages can mitigate the effect of monopsony power by increasing wages without reducing employment. The insights garnered from both theoretical models and empirical evidence offer a road map for crafting policies that can enhance competition in the labor market.
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Protests
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 519–543More LessCitizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak before falling off. Fourth, a country's year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the United States, China, and Russia are the most overrepresented countries in academic studies. We discuss each pattern's connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work.
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Alternatives to Bayesian Updating
Vol. 16 (2024), pp. 545–570More LessWe discuss models of updating that depart from Bayes’ rule even when it is well-defined. After reviewing Bayes’ rule and its foundations, we begin our analysis with models of non-Bayesian behavior arising from a bias, a pull toward suboptimal behavior due to a heuristic or a mistake. Next, we explore deviations caused by individuals questioning the prior probabilities they initially used. We then consider non-Bayesian behavior resulting from the optimal response to constraints on perception, cognition, or memory, as well as models based on motivated beliefs or distance minimization. Finally, we briefly discuss models of updating after zero probability events.
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