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Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Volume 44, 2016

Climate Sensitivity in the Geologic Past

Abstract

The response of temperature to CO change (climate sensitivity) in the geologic past may help inform future climate predictions. Proxies for CO and temperature generally imply high climate sensitivities: ≥3 K per CO doubling during ice-free times (fast-feedback sensitivity) and ≥6 K during times with land ice (Earth-system sensitivity). Climate models commonly underpredict the magnitude of climate change and have fast-feedback sensitivities close to 3 K. A better characterization of feedbacks in warm worlds raises climate sensitivity to values more in line with proxies and produces climate simulations that better fit geologic evidence. As CO builds in our atmosphere, we should expect both slow (e.g., land ice) and fast (e.g., vegetation, clouds) feedbacks to elevate the long-term temperature response over that predicted from the canonical fast-feedback value of 3 K. Because temperatures will not decline for centuries to millennia, climate sensitivities that integrate slower processes have relevance for current climate policy.

Keyword(s): carbon dioxide, climate models, paleoclimate, Phanerozoic, proxies, temperature
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2016-06-29
2024-04-23
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Climate Sensitivity in the Geologic Past
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 44, 277 (2016); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-100815-024150
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-earth-100815-024150
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