1932

Abstract

This article reviews the literature on historical persistence in political science and the related social sciences. Historical persistence refers to causal effects that () operate over time scales of a decade or more and () explain spatial variation in political, economic, or social outcomes. Although political scientists have always drawn from history, the historical persistence literature represents a new approach to historical research in the social sciences that places a premium on credible research designs for causal inference. We discuss regional and national coverage, state-of-the-art research designs, analytical and inferential challenges, and mechanisms and theories of persistence, drawing broadly from the contemporary literature in political science and economics.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104325
2022-05-12
2024-03-29
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/polisci/25/1/annurev-polisci-051120-104325.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104325&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Abad LA, Maurer N. 2021. History never really says goodbye: a critical review of the persistence literature. J. Hist. Political Econ 1:31–68
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Abramson SF. 2021. The economic effects of leaders’ economic interests: evidence from election by lot in the Florentine Republic. J. Politics In press
    [Google Scholar]
  3. Abramson SF, Boix C. 2019. Endogenous parliaments: the domestic and international roots of long-term economic growth and executive constraints in Europe. Int. Organ 73:793–837
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Acemoglu D, Cantoni D, Johnson S, Robinson JA 2011. The consequences of radical reform: the French Revolution. Am. Econ. Rev 101:3286–307
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson JA 2001. The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation. Am. Econ. Rev 91:1369–401
    [Google Scholar]
  6. Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson JA 2002. Reversal of fortune: geography and institutions in the making of the modern world income distribution. Q. J. Econ 117:1231–94
    [Google Scholar]
  7. Acharya A, Blackwell M, Sen M. 2016. Explaining causal findings without bias: detecting and assessing direct effects. Am. Political Sci. Rev 110:512–29
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Acharya A, Blackwell M, Sen M. 2018. Deep Roots: How Slavery Still Shapes Southern Politics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  9. Acharya A, Lee A 2019. Path dependence in European development: medieval politics, conflict, and state building. Comp. Political Stud 52:2171–206
    [Google Scholar]
  10. Alesina A, Giuliano P, Nunn N. 2011. Fertility and the plough. Am. Econ. Rev 101:499–503
    [Google Scholar]
  11. Angrist JD, Pischke J-S. 2010. The credibility revolution in empirical economics: how better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect 24:3–30
    [Google Scholar]
  12. Balcells L. 2011. The consequences of victimization on political identities: evidence from Spain. Politics Soc 40:311–47
    [Google Scholar]
  13. Bazzi S, Fiszbein M, Gebresilasse M. 2020. Frontier culture: the roots and persistence of “rugged individualism” in the United States. Econometrica 88:2329–68
    [Google Scholar]
  14. Beck N, Gleditsch KS, Beardsley K. 2006. Space is more than geography: using spatial econometrics in the study of political economy. Int. Stud. Q 50:27–44
    [Google Scholar]
  15. Beramendi P, Jensen J. 2019. Economic geography, political inequality, and public goods in the original 13 U.S. states. Comp. Political Stud. 52:2235–82
    [Google Scholar]
  16. Betz T, Cook SJ, Hollenbach FM. 2018. On the use and abuse of spatial instruments. Political Anal. 26:474–79
    [Google Scholar]
  17. Betz T, Cook SJ, Hollenbach FM. 2020. Spatial interdependence and instrumental variable models. Political Sci. Res. Methods 8:646–61
    [Google Scholar]
  18. Blackwell M, Glynn AN. 2018. How to make causal inferences with time-series cross-sectional data under selection on observables. Am. Political Sci. Rev. 112:1067–82
    [Google Scholar]
  19. Blackwell M, Honaker J, King G. 2015. A unified approach to measurement error and missing data: overview and applications. Sociol. Methods Res 46:303–41
    [Google Scholar]
  20. Blaydes L, Paik C. 2016. The impact of Holy Land crusades on state formation: war mobilization, trade integration, and political development in medieval Europe. Int. Organ 70:551–86
    [Google Scholar]
  21. Bleakley H, Lin J. 2012. Portage and path dependence. Q. J. Econ 127:587–644
    [Google Scholar]
  22. Cantoni D, Dittmar J, Yuchtman N. 2018. Religious competition and reallocation: the political economy of secularization in the Protestant Reformation. Q. J. Econ 133:2037–96
    [Google Scholar]
  23. Cantoni D, Yuchtman N. 2020. Historical natural experiments: bridging economics and economic history NBER Work. Pap. 26754
  24. Capoccia G, Ziblatt D. 2010. The historical turn in democratization studies: a new research agenda for Europe and beyond. Comp. Political Stud 43:931–68
    [Google Scholar]
  25. Casey G, Klemp M. 2021. Historical instruments and contemporary endogenous regressors. J. Dev. Econ 149:102586
    [Google Scholar]
  26. Cattaneo M, Idrobo N, Titiunik R. 2020. A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  27. Charnysh V. 2019. Diversity, institutions, and economic outcomes: post-WWII displacement in Poland. Am. Political Sci. Rev 113:423–41
    [Google Scholar]
  28. Chen T, Kung JK-S, Ma C. 2020. Long live Keju! The persistent effects of China's civil examination system. Econ. J 130:2030–64
    [Google Scholar]
  29. Cinelli C, Hazlett C. 2020. Making sense of sensitivity: extending omitted variable bias. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) 82:39–67
    [Google Scholar]
  30. Cirone A, Spirling A. 2021. Turning history into data: data collection, measurement, and inference in HPE. J. Hist. Political Econ 1:127–54
    [Google Scholar]
  31. Cirone A, Van Coppenolle B. 2019. Bridging the gap: lottery-based procedures in early parliamentarization. World Politics 71:197–235
    [Google Scholar]
  32. Conley TG. 1999. GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence. J. Econom 92:1–45
    [Google Scholar]
  33. Conley TG, Hansen CB, Rossi PE. 2012. Plausibly exogenous. Rev. Econ. Stat 94:260–72
    [Google Scholar]
  34. Cook SJ, Hays JC, Franzese R 2020. Model specification and spatial interdependence. The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations L Curini, R Franzese 730–47 Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
    [Google Scholar]
  35. Cox GW, Dincecco M. 2021. The budgetary origins of fiscal-military prowess. J. Politics 83:851–66
    [Google Scholar]
  36. Dell M. 2010. The persistent effects of Peru's mining mita. Econometrica 78:1863–903
    [Google Scholar]
  37. Dell M, Lane N, Querubin P 2018. The historical state, local collective action, and economic development in Vietnam. Econometrica 86:2083–121
    [Google Scholar]
  38. Diamond J, Robinson JA, eds. 2010. Natural Experiments of History Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press
  39. Dinas E, Fouka V, Schläpfer A. 2020. Family history and attitudes toward out-groups: evidence from the European refugee crisis. J. Politics 83:647–61
    [Google Scholar]
  40. Dincecco M, Prado M. 2012. Warfare, fiscal capacity, and performance. J. Econ. Growth 17:171–203
    [Google Scholar]
  41. Dower PC, Finkel E, Gehlbach S, Nafziger S 2018. Collective action and representation in autocracies: evidence from Russia's Great Reforms. Am. Political Sci. Rev 112:125–47
    [Google Scholar]
  42. Dunning T. 2012. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  43. Finkel E, Gehlbach S, Olsen TD 2015. Does reform prevent rebellion? Evidence from Russia's emancipation of the serfs. Comp. Political Stud 48:984–1019
    [Google Scholar]
  44. Firmin-Sellers K. 2000. Institutions, context, and outcomes: explaining French and British rule in West Africa. Comp. Politics 32:253–72
    [Google Scholar]
  45. Fontana N, Nannicini T, Tabellini G. 2017. Historical roots of political extremism: the effects of Nazi occupation of Italy CEPR Disc. Pap. 11758 Cent. Econ. Policy Res. Washington, DC:
  46. Fouka V. 2020. Backlash: the unintended effects of language prohibition in U.S. schools after World War I. Rev. Econ. Stud 87:204–39
    [Google Scholar]
  47. Fowler A, Hall AB 2017. Long-term consequences of election results. Br. J. Political Sci 47:351–72
    [Google Scholar]
  48. Franzese RJ, Hays JC. 2007. Spatial econometric models of cross-sectional interdependence in political science panel and time-series-cross-section data. Political Anal 15:140–64
    [Google Scholar]
  49. Garfias F, Sellars EA. 2021. From conquest to centralization: domestic conflict and the transition to direct rule. J. Politics 83:992–1009
    [Google Scholar]
  50. Gelman A, Imbens G. 2013. Why ask why? Forward causal inference and reverse causal questions NBER Work. Pap. 19614
  51. Gerring J. 2010. Causal mechanisms: yes, but.…. Comp. Political Stud 43:1499–526
    [Google Scholar]
  52. Gingerich DW, Vogler JP. 2021. Pandemics and political development: the electoral legacy of the Black Death in Germany. World Politics. 73:393–440
    [Google Scholar]
  53. Goodman-Bacon A. 2021. Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. J. Econom 225:25477
    [Google Scholar]
  54. Grzymala-Busse A. 2010. Time will tell? Temporality and the analysis of causal mechanisms and processes. Comp. Political Stud 44:1267–97
    [Google Scholar]
  55. Guardado J. 2018. Office-selling, corruption, and long-term development in Peru. Am. Political Sci. Rev 112:971–95
    [Google Scholar]
  56. Hall RE, Jones CI. 1999. Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?. Q. J. Econ 114:83–116
    [Google Scholar]
  57. Homola J, Pereira MM, Tavits M. 2020. Legacies of the Third Reich: concentration camps and out-group intolerance. Am. Political Sci. Rev 114:573–90
    [Google Scholar]
  58. Imai K, Keele L, Tingley D, Yamamoto T 2011. Unpacking the black box of causality: learning about causal mechanisms from experimental and observational studies. Am. Political Sci. Rev 105:765–89
    [Google Scholar]
  59. Imai K, Kim IS. 2021. On the use of two-way fixed effects regression models for causal inference with panel data. Political Anal. 29:405–15
    [Google Scholar]
  60. Ito G. 2021. Why does ethnic partition foster violence? Unpacking the deep historical roots of civil conflicts. J. Peace Res 58:986–1003
    [Google Scholar]
  61. Jedwab R, Kerby E, Moradi A 2017. History, path dependence and development: evidence from colonial railways, settlers and cities in Kenya. Econ. J 127:1467–94
    [Google Scholar]
  62. Jha S. 2015. Financial asset holdings and political attitudes: evidence from revolutionary England. Q. J. Econ 130:1485–545
    [Google Scholar]
  63. Keele LJ, Titiunik R. 2015. Geographic boundaries as regression discontinuities. Political Anal. 23:127–55
    [Google Scholar]
  64. Kelly M. 2019. The standard errors of persistence CEPR Disc. Pap. 13783, Cent. Econ. Policy Res. Washington, DC:
  65. Kocher MA, Monteiro NP. 2016. Lines of demarcation: causation, design-based inference, and historical research. Perspect. Politics 14:952–75
    [Google Scholar]
  66. Lachapelle J, Levitsky S, Way LA, Casey AE. 2020. Social revolution and authoritarian durability. World Politics 72:557–600
    [Google Scholar]
  67. Lankina T, Getachew L. 2012. Mission or empire, word or sword? The human capital legacy in postcolonial democratic development. Am. J. Political Sci. 56:465–83
    [Google Scholar]
  68. Lechler M, McNamee L. 2018. Indirect colonial rule undermines support for democracy: evidence from a natural experiment in Namibia. Comp. Political Stud 51:1858–98
    [Google Scholar]
  69. Lewis-Beck M, Bryman A, Futing Liao T, eds. 2004. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
  70. Little RJA, Rubin DB. 2002. Statistical Analysis with Missing Data New York: Wiley
  71. Lupu N, Peisakhin L. 2017. The legacy of political violence across generations. Am. J. Political Sci. 61:836–51
    [Google Scholar]
  72. Mattingly DC. 2015. Colonial legacies and state institutions in China: evidence from a natural experiment. Comp. Political Stud 50:434–63
    [Google Scholar]
  73. Mauro P. 1995. Corruption and growth. Q. J. Econ 110:681–712
    [Google Scholar]
  74. Merriam CE. 1925. New Aspects of Politics Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
  75. Møller J. 2021. Reading history forward. PS Political Sci. Politics 54:249–53
    [Google Scholar]
  76. Montgomery JM, Nyhan B, Torres M. 2018. How conditioning on posttreatment variables can ruin your experiment and what to do about it. Am. J. Political Sci. 62:760–75
    [Google Scholar]
  77. Morck R, Yeung B. 2011. Economics, history, and causation. Bus. Hist. Rev 85:39–63
    [Google Scholar]
  78. Nunn N. 2008. The long-term effects of Africa's slave trades. Q. J. Econ 123:139–76
    [Google Scholar]
  79. Nunn N. 2020. The historical roots of economic development. Science 367:eaaz9986
    [Google Scholar]
  80. Nunn N, Qian N. 2011. The potato's contribution to population and urbanization: evidence from a historical experiment. Q. J. Econ 126:593–650
    [Google Scholar]
  81. Nunn N, Wantchekon L. 2011. The slave trade and the origins of mistrust in Africa. Am. Econ. Rev 101:3221–52
    [Google Scholar]
  82. Oto-Peralías D, Romero-Ávila D. 2017. Historical frontiers and the rise of inequality: the case of the frontier of Granada. J. Eur. Econ. Assoc 15:54–98
    [Google Scholar]
  83. Page SE. 2006. Essay: path dependence. Q. J. Political Sci. 1:87–115
    [Google Scholar]
  84. Paik C, Vechbanyongratana J. 2019. Path to centralization and development: evidence from Siam. World Politics 71:289–331
    [Google Scholar]
  85. Pearl J. 2009. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
  86. Pepinsky TB. 2018. A note on listwise deletion versus multiple imputation. Political Anal. 26:480–88
    [Google Scholar]
  87. Pepinsky TB. 2019. The return of the single-country study. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 22:187–203
    [Google Scholar]
  88. Ricart-Huguet J. 2021. The origins of colonial investments in former British and French Africa. Br. J. Political Sci. In press
    [Google Scholar]
  89. Robertson DB. 1993. The return to history and the new institutionalism in American political science. Soc. Sci. Hist 17:1–36
    [Google Scholar]
  90. Rozenas A, Zhukov YM. 2019. Mass repression and political loyalty: evidence from Stalin's “terror by hunger. .” Am. Political Sci. Rev 113:569–83
    [Google Scholar]
  91. Rubin DB 2005. Causal inference using potential outcomes: design, modeling, decisions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc 100:322–31
    [Google Scholar]
  92. Sekhon JS. 2009. Opiates for the matches: matching methods for causal inference. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 12:487–508
    [Google Scholar]
  93. Sellars EA, Alix-Garcia J. 2018. Labor scarcity, land tenure, and historical legacy: evidence from Mexico. J. Dev. Econ 135:504–16
    [Google Scholar]
  94. Sidel JT. 2008. Social origins of dictatorship and democracy revisited: colonial state and Chinese immigrant in the making of modern Southeast Asia. Comp. Politics 40:127–47
    [Google Scholar]
  95. Simpser A, Slater D, Wittenberg J. 2018. Dead but not gone: contemporary legacies of communism, imperialism, and authoritarianism. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 21:419–39
    [Google Scholar]
  96. Slater D, Ziblatt D. 2013. The enduring indispensability of the controlled comparison. Comp. Political Stud 46:1301–27
    [Google Scholar]
  97. Smith BB. 2005. Life of the party: the origins of regime breakdown and persistence under single-party rule. World Politics 57:421–51
    [Google Scholar]
  98. Sokoloff KL, Engerman SL. 2000. Institutions, factor endowments, and paths of development in the New World. J. Econ. Perspect 14:217–32
    [Google Scholar]
  99. Stasavage D. 2020. The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  100. Suryanarayan P. 2018. When do the poor vote for the right wing and why: status hierarchy and vote choice in the Indian states. Comp. Political Stud 52:209–45
    [Google Scholar]
  101. Thomas D, Fowler S, Johnson V 2017. The Silence of the Archive London: Facet Publishing
  102. Titiunik R 2021. Natural experiments. Advances in Experimental Political Science JN Druckman, D Green 103–29 New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  103. Tudor M. 2013. Explaining democracy's origins: lessons from South Asia. Comp. Politics 45:253–72
    [Google Scholar]
  104. Tur-Prats A, Valencia Caicedo F. 2020. The long shadow of the Spanish Civil War CEPR Disc. Pap. 15091 Cent. Econ. Policy Res. Washington, DC:
  105. Valencia Caicedo F. 2021. Historical econometrics: instrumental variables and regression discontinuity designs. The Handbook of Historical Economics A Bisin, G Federico 179–211 London: Academic
    [Google Scholar]
  106. Van Coppenolle B. 2020. How do political elites persist? Political selection, political inequality and empirical historical research. French Politics 18:175–88
    [Google Scholar]
  107. van Kippersluis H, Rietveld CA. 2018. Beyond plausibly exogenous. Econom. J 21:316–31
    [Google Scholar]
  108. Vogler JP. 2019. Imperial rule, the imposition of bureaucratic institutions, and their long-term legacies. World Politics 71:806–63
    [Google Scholar]
  109. Voigtländer N, Voth H-J. 2012. Persecution perpetuated: the medieval origins of anti-Semitic violence in Nazi Germany. Q. J. Econ 127:1339–92
    [Google Scholar]
  110. Voth H-J 2021. Persistence—myth and mystery. The Handbook of Historical Economics A Bisin, G Federico 243–67 London: Academic
    [Google Scholar]
  111. Wang Y. 2021. The political legacy of violence during China's Cultural Revolution. Br. J. Political Sci 51:463–87
    [Google Scholar]
  112. Whitten G, Williams L, Wimpy C 2021. Interpretation: the final spatial frontier. Political Sci. Res. Methods 9:140
    [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104325
Loading
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-104325
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplemental Material

Supplementary Data

  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error