1932

Abstract

High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to () describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, () assess its potential economic consequences, () discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, () propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and () draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750
2024-08-22
2025-02-18
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/economics/16/1/annurev-economics-081523-013750.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Aassve A, Cavalli N, Mencarini L, Plach S, Sanders S. 2021.. Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries. . PNAS 118:(36):e2105709118
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  2. Abeliansky AL, Prettner K. 2023.. Automation and population growth: theory and cross-country evidence. . J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 208::34558
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  3. Acemoglu D, Restrepo P. 2022.. Demographics and automation. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 89:(1):144
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  4. Acemoglu D, Robinson J. 2010.. The role of institutions in growth and development. . Rev. Econ. Inst. 1:(2):1
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Adda J, Dustmann C, Stevens K. 2017.. The career costs of children. . J. Political Econ. 125:(2):293337
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  6. Ahituv A. 2001.. Be fruitful or multiply: on the interplay between fertility and economic development. . J. Popul. Econ. 14::5171
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  7. Aksoy Y, Basso HS, Smith RP, Grasl T. 2019.. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends. . Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 11:(1):193222
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  8. Albanesi S, Olivetti C. 2016.. Gender roles and medical progress. . J. Political Econ. 124:(3):65095
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  9. Ananat EO, Gruber J, Levine PB, Staiger D. 2009.. Abortion and selection. . Rev. Econ. Stat. 91:(1):12436
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  10. Angrist J, Lavy V, Schlosser A. 2010.. Multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children. . J. Labor Econ. 28:(4):773824
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  11. Arpino B, Esping-Andersen G, Pessin L. 2015.. How do changes in gender role attitudes towards female employment influence fertility? A macro-level analysis. . Eur. Sociol. Rev. 31:(3):37082
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  12. Ashraf Q, Weil D, Wilde J. 2013.. The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 39:(1):97130
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  13. Atalay K, Li A, Whelan S. 2021.. Housing wealth, fertility intentions and fertility. . J. Hous. Econ. 54::101787
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  14. Autor D, Dorn D, Hanson G. 2019.. When work disappears: manufacturing decline and the falling marriage market value of young men. . Am. Econ. Rev. Insights 1:(2):16178
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  15. Baldanzi A, Bucci A, Prettner K. 2021.. Children's health, human capital accumulation, and R&D-based economic growth. . Macroecon. Dyn. 25:(3):65168
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  16. Banerjee A, Meng X, Porzio T, Qian N. 2014.. Aggregate fertility and household savings: a general equilibrium analysis using micro data. NBER Work. Pap. 20050
    [Google Scholar]
  17. Bar M, Hazan M, Leukhina O, Weiss D, Zoabi H. 2018.. Why did rich families increase their fertility? Inequality and marketization of child care. . J. Econ. Growth 23:(4):42763
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  18. Barro RJ. 1990.. Government spending in a simple model of endogeneous growth. . J. Political Econ. 98:(5, Pt. 2):S10325
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  19. Bauernschuster S, Hener T, Rainer H. 2016.. Children of a (policy) revolution: the introduction of universal child care and its effect on fertility. . J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 14:(4):9751005
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  20. Bauernschuster S, Rainer H. 2012.. Political regimes and the family: how sex-role attitudes continue to differ in reunified Germany. . J. Popul. Econ. 25:(1):527
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  21. Beaujouan E. 2020.. Latest-late fertility? Decline and resurgence of late parenthood across the low-fertility countries. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 46:(2):21947
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  22. Becker GS. 1960.. An economic analysis of fertility. . In Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pp. 20940. Princeton, NJ:: Princeton Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  23. Bellani D, Arpino B. 2022.. Risk tolerance and fertility: evidence from a lottery question in Italy. . J. Marriage Fam. 84:(2):45775
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  24. Bick A, Fuchs-Schündeln N. 2018.. Taxation and labour supply of married couples across countries: a macroeconomic analysis. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 85:(3):154376
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  25. Billari FC, Giuntella O, Stella L. 2018.. Broadband internet, digital temptations, and sleep. . J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 153::5876
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  26. Billari FC, Giuntella O, Stella L. 2019.. Does broadband internet affect fertility?. Popul. Stud. 73:(3):297316
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  27. Black SE, Devereux PJ, Salvanes KG. 2005.. The more the merrier? The effect of family size and birth order on children's education. . Q. J. Econ. 120:(2):669700
    [Google Scholar]
  28. Blackburn ML, Bloom DE, Neumark D. 1993.. Fertility timing, wages, and human capital. . J. Popul. Econ. 6:(1):130
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  29. Blanchard OJ. 1985.. Debt, deficits and finite horizons. . J. Political Econ. 93:(2):22347
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  30. Bloom DE, Canning D, Fink G. 2010.. Implications of population ageing for economic growth. . Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy 26:(4):583612
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  31. Bloom DE, Canning D, Fink G, Finlay J. 2009.. Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. . J. Econ. Growth 14:(2):79101
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  32. Bloom DE, Canning D, Kotschy R, Prettner K, Schünemann J. 2024.. Health and economic growth: reconciling the micro and macro evidence. . World Dev. 178::106575
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  33. Bloom DE, Canning D, Mansfield RK, Moore M. 2007.. Demographic change, social security systems, and savings. . J. Monet. Econ. 54:(1):92114
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  34. Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. 2003.. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA:: RAND
    [Google Scholar]
  35. Bloom DE, Finlay J. 2009.. Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. . Asian Econ. Policy Rev. 4:(1):4564
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  36. Bloom DE, Kuhn M, Prettner K. 2017.. Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. . J. Demogr. Econ. 83:(1):6376
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  37. Bloom DE, Kuhn M, Prettner K. 2019.. Health and economic growth. . In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford, UK:: Oxford Univ. Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.36
    [Google Scholar]
  38. Bloom DE, Kuhn M, Prettner K. 2020.. The contribution of female health to economic development. . Econ. J. 130:(630):165077
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  39. Bloom DE, Luca DL. 2016.. The global demography of aging: facts, explanations, future. . In Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, ed. J Piggott, A Woodland , pp. 356. Amsterdam:: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  40. Bloom DE, Williamson JG. 1998.. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. . World Bank Econ. Rev. 12:(3):41956
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  41. Boeri T, Giupponi G, Krueger AB, Machin S. 2020.. Solo self-employment and alternative work arrangements: a cross-country perspective on the changing composition of jobs. . J. Econ. Perspect. 34:(1):17095
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  42. Boldrin M, De Nardi M, Jones LE. 2015.. Fertility and social security. . J. Demogr. Econ. 81:(3):26199
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  43. Bongaarts J, Hodgson D. 2022.. Fertility trends in the developing world, 1950–2020. . In Fertility Transition in the Developing World, pp. 114. Cham, Switz.:: Springer
    [Google Scholar]
  44. Borghans L, ter Weel B. 2002.. Do older workers have more trouble using a computer than younger workers?. In The Economics of Skills Obsolescence, 13973. 21. Bingley, UK:: Emerald
    [Google Scholar]
  45. Buiter WH. 1988.. Death, birth, productivity growth and debt neutrality. . Econ. J. 98::179293
    [Google Scholar]
  46. Cain M. 1983.. Fertility as an adjustment to risk. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 9:(4):688702
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  47. Caldwell JC. 1976.. Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 2:(3/4):32166
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  48. Caldwell JC. 2005.. On net intergenerational wealth flows: an update. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 31:(4):72140
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  49. Canning D, Pedroni P. 2008.. Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. . Manch. Sch. 76:(5):50427
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  50. Canton EJF, de Groot HLF, Hahuis R. 2002.. Vested interests, population ageing and technology adoption. . Eur. J. Political Econ. 18:(4):63152
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  51. Caucutt EM, Guner N, Knowles J. 2002.. Why do women wait? Matching, wage inequality, and the incentives for fertility delay. . Rev. Econ. Dyn. 5:(4):81555
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  52. Cavallo E, Sánchez G, Valenzuela P. 2018.. Gone with the wind: demographic transitions and domestic saving. . Rev. Dev. Econ. 22:(4):174464
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  53. Chabé-Ferret B. 2019.. Adherence to cultural norms and economic incentives: evidence from fertility timing decisions. . J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 162::2448
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  54. Choukhmane T, Coeurdacier N, Jin K. 2023.. The one-child policy and household saving. . J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 21:(3):9871032
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  55. Cigno A. 2016.. Conflict and cooperation within the family, and between the state and the family, in the provision of old-age security. . In Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Vol. 1, ed. J Piggott, A Woodland , pp. 60960. Amsterdam:: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  56. Cohen D, Soto M. 2007.. Growth and human capital: good data, good results. . J. Econ. Growth 12::5176
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  57. Cooley T, Henriksen E. 2018.. The demographic deficit. . J. Monet. Econ. 93::4562
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  58. Curtis CC, Lugauer S, Mark NC. 2015.. Demographic patterns and household saving in China. . Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 7:(2):5894
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  59. d'Albis H. 2007.. Demographic structure and capital accumulation. . J. Econ. Theory 132:(7):41134
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  60. d'Albis H, Gobbi PE, Greulich A. 2017.. Having a second child and access to childcare: evidence from European countries. . J. Demogr. Econ. 83:(2):177210
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  61. Danzer AM, Zyska L. 2023.. Pensions and fertility: microeconomic evidence. . Am. Econ. J. Econ. Policy 15:(2):12665
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  62. Daruich D, Kozlowski J. 2020.. Explaining intergenerational mobility: the role of fertility and family transfers. . Rev. Econ. Dyn. 36::22045
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  63. Davis C, Hashimoto K-I, Tabata K. 2022.. Demographic structure, knowledge diffusion, and endogenous productivity growth. . J. Macroecon. 71::103396
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  64. de la Croix D, Pommeret A. 2021.. Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock. . J. Econ. Theory 193::105231
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  65. de Laat J, Sevilla-Sanz A. 2011.. The fertility and women's labor force participation puzzle in OECD countries: the role of men's home production. . Fem. Econ. 17:(2):87119
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  66. de Silva T, Tenreyro S. 2020.. The fall in global fertility: a quantitative model. . Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 12:(3):77109
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  67. Del Boca D, Sauer RM. 2009.. Life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments. . Eur. Econ. Rev. 53:(3):27492
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  68. Del Bono E, Weber A, Winter-Ebmer R. 2012.. Clash of career and family: fertility decisions after job displacement. . J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 10:(4):65983
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  69. Del Bono E, Weber A, Winter-Ebmer R. 2015.. Fertility and economic instability: the role of unemployment and job displacement. . J. Popul. Econ. 28:(2):46378
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  70. Desmet K, Parente SL. 2010.. Bigger is better: market size, demand elasticity, and innovation. . Int. Econ. Rev. 51:(2):31933
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  71. Diamond PA. 1965.. National debt in a neoclassical growth model. . Am. Econ. Rev. 55:(5):112650
    [Google Scholar]
  72. Doepke M. 2004.. Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth. . J. Econ. Growth 9::34783
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  73. Doepke M. 2005.. Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?. J. Popul. Econ. 18::33766
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  74. Doepke M, Hannusch A, Kindermann F, Tertilt M. 2023.. The economics of fertility: a new era. . In Handbook of the Economics of the Family, Vol. 1, ed. S Lundberg, A Voena , pp. 151254. Amsterdam:: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  75. Doepke M, Kindermann F. 2019.. Bargaining over babies: theory, evidence, and policy implications. . Am. Econ. Rev. 109:(9):3264306
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  76. Economist. 2009.. A special report on ageing populations. . Economist, June 27
    [Google Scholar]
  77. Economist. 2011a.. 70 or bust! Why the retirement age must go up. A special report on pensions. . Economist, Apr. 7
    [Google Scholar]
  78. Economist. 2011b.. Briefing demography. A tale of three islands. . Economist, Oct. 22
    [Google Scholar]
  79. Eggertsson GB, Mehrotra NR, Robbins JA. 2019.. A model of secular stagnation: theory and quantitative evaluation. . Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 11:(1):148
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  80. Ermisch JF. 1989.. Purchased child care, optimal family size and mother's employment: theory and econometric analysis. . J. Popul. Econ. 2:(2):79102
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  81. Fanelli E, Profeta P. 2021.. Fathers' involvement in the family, fertility, and maternal employment: evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. . Demography 58:(5):193154
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  82. Fernández R, Fogli A. 2006.. Fertility: the role of culture and family experience. . J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 4:(2–3):55261
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  83. Fernández R, Fogli A. 2009.. Culture: an empirical investigation of beliefs, work, and fertility. . Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 1:(1):14677
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  84. Ferrara EL, Chong A, Duryea S. 2012.. Soap operas and fertility: evidence from Brazil. . Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 4:(4):131
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  85. Feyrer J, Sacerdote B, Stern AD. 2008.. Will the stork return to Europe and Japan? Understanding fertility within developed nations. . J. Econ. Perspect. 22:(3):322
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  86. Filoso V, Papagni E. 2015.. Fertility choice and financial development. . Eur. J. Political Econ. 37::16077
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  87. Fioroni T. 2010.. Child mortality and fertility: public versus private education. . J. Popul. Econ. 23:(1):7397
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  88. Fox J, Klüsener S, Myrskylä M. 2019.. Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe. . Eur. J. Popul. 35:(3):487518
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  89. Fuchs-Schündeln N, Schündeln M. 2009.. Who stays, who goes, who returns?. Econ. Transit. 17:(4):70338
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  90. Furtado D. 2016.. Fertility responses of high-skilled native women to immigrant inflows. . Demography 53:(1):2753
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  91. Furtado D, Hock H. 2010.. Low skilled immigration and work-fertility tradeoffs among high skilled US natives. . Am. Econ. Rev. 100:(2):22428
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  92. Galor O, Moav O, Vollrath D. 2009.. Inequality in landownership, the emergence of human-capital promoting institutions, and the great divergence. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 76:(1):14379
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  93. Galor O, Weil D. 2000.. Population, technology, and growth: from Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. . Am. Econ. Rev. 90:(4):80628
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  94. Ge S, Yang DT, Zhang J. 2018.. Population policies, demographic structural changes, and the Chinese household saving puzzle. . Eur. Econ. Rev. 101::181209
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  95. Giuntella O, Rotunno L, Stella L. 2022.. Globalization, fertility, and marital behavior in a lowest-low fertility setting. . Demography 59:(6):213559
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  96. Goldin C, Katz LF. 2002.. The power of the pill: oral contraceptives and women's career and marriage decisions. . J. Political Econ. 110:(4):73070
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  97. Goldstein JR, Sobotka T, Jasilioniene A. 2009.. The end of “lowest-low” fertility?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 35:(4):66399
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  98. González L, Trommlerová SK. 2023.. Cash transfers and fertility: how the introduction and cancellation of a child benefit affected births and abortions. . J. Hum. Resourc. 58:(3):783818
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  99. Gozgor G, Bilgin MH, Rangazas P. 2021.. Economic uncertainty and fertility. . J. Hum. Cap. 15:(3):37399
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  100. Greenwood J, Sheshadri A, Yurukoglu M. 2005.. Engines of liberation. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 72:(1):10933
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  101. Gruber J, Wise D. 1998.. Social security and retirement: an international comparison. . Am. Econ. Rev. 88:(2):15863
    [Google Scholar]
  102. Gu GW. 2021.. Sovereign default, trade, and terms of trade. . Macroecon. Dyn. 25:(6):134680
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  103. Guldi M, Herbst CM. 2017.. Offline effects of online connecting: the impact of broadband diffusion on teen fertility decisions. . J. Popul. Econ. 30:(1):6991
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  104. Hanushek EA, Woessmann L. 2012.. Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation. . J. Econ. Growth 17::267321
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  105. Hashimoto K-I, Tabata K. 2016.. Demographic change, human capital accumulation and R&D-based growth. . Can. Econ. Rev. 59:(2):70737
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  106. Hazan M, Berdugo B. 2002.. Child labour, fertility, and economic growth. . Econ. J. 112:(482):81028
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  107. Heckman JJ, Walker JR. 1990.. The relationship between wages and income and the timing and spacing of births: evidence from Swedish longitudinal data. . Econometrica 58:(6):141141
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  108. Hellstrand J, Nisén J, Miranda V, Fallesen P, Dommermuth L, Myrskylä M. 2021.. Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries. . Demography 58:(4):137399
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  109. Herzer D, Strulik H, Vollmer S. 2012.. The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change, 1900–1999. . J. Econ. Growth 17:(4):35785
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  110. Hotz VJ, Klerman JR, Willis RJ. 1997.. The economics of fertility in developed countries. . In Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Vol. 1, ed. MR Rosenzweig, O Stark , pp. 275347. Amsterdam:: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  111. Huang C-Y, Lai C-C, Peretto PF. 2023.. Public R&D, private R&D and growth: a Schumpeterian approach. Unpublished manuscript
    [Google Scholar]
  112. Hurd M, Rohwedder S. 2023.. Economic preparation for retirement. . In The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, ed. DE Bloom, A Sousa-Poza, U Sunde , pp. 21733. London:: Routledge
    [Google Scholar]
  113. Hwang J. 2023.. Later, fewer, none? Recent trends in cohort fertility in South Korea. . Demography 60:(2):56382
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  114. Jones CI. 1995.. R&D-based models of economic growth. . J. Political Econ. 103:(4):75984
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  115. Jones CI. 2022.. The end of economic growth? Unintended consequences of a declining population. . Am. Econ. Rev. 112:(11):3489527
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  116. Jones CI, Williams JC. 1998.. Measuring the social return to R&D. . Q. J. Econ. 113:(4):111935
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  117. Kalemli-Ozcan S. 2003.. A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment. . J. Dev. Econ. 70:(1):10318
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  118. Kleven H, Landais C, Posch J, Steinhauer A, Zweimüller J. 2019.. Child penalties across countries: evidence and explanations. . AEA Pap. Proc. 109::12226
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  119. Kotschy R, Sunde U. 2018.. Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?. Econ. Policy 33:(96):587634
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  120. Krueger D, Ludwig A. 2007.. On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns on capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare. . J. Monet. Econ. 54:(1):4987
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  121. Kuhn M. 2023.. Medical progress, aging, and sustainability of health care finance. . In The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, ed. DE Bloom, A Sousa-Poza, U Sunde , pp. 6183. London:: Routledge
    [Google Scholar]
  122. Kuhn M, Prettner K. 2018.. Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from national transfer accounts. . J. Popul. Econ. 31:(1):13553
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  123. Kuhn M, Prettner K. 2023.. Rising longevity, increasing the retirement age, and the consequences for knowledge-based long-run growth. . Economica 90:(357):3964
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  124. Kuhn M, Wrzaczek S, Prskawetz A, Feichtinger G. 2015.. Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model. . J. Econ. Theory 158:(Pt. A):186212
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  125. Lalive R, Zweimüller J. 2009.. How does parental leave affect fertility and return to work? Evidence from two natural experiments. . Q. J. Econ. 124:(3):1363402
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  126. Lau S-HP. 2009.. Demographic structure and capital accumulation: a quantitative assessment. . J. Econ. Dyn. Control 33:(3):55467
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  127. Lazzari E, Potančoková M, Sobotka T, Gray E, Chambers GM. 2023.. Projecting the contribution of assisted reproductive technology to completed cohort fertility. . Popul. Res. Policy Rev. 42:(1):6
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  128. Lee R, Mason A. 2010.. Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. . Eur. J. Popul. 26:(2):15982
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  129. Lehmann-Hasemeyer S, Prettner K, Tscheuschner P. 2023.. The Scientific Revolution and its implications for long-run economic development. . World Dev. 168::106262
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  130. Lesthaeghe R. 2020.. The second demographic transition, 1986–2020: sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation—a global update. . Genus 76:(1):10
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  131. Levine H, Jørgensen N, Martino-Andrade A, Mendiola J, Weksler-Derri D, et al. 2023.. Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of samples collected globally in the 20th and 21st centuries. . Hum. Reprod. Update 29:(2):15776
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  132. Liang J, Wang H, Lazear EP. 2018.. Demographics and entrepreneurship. . J. Political Econ. 126:(S1):S14096
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  133. Lindh T, Malmberg B. 2000.. Can age structure forecast inflation trends?. J. Econ. Bus. 52:(1–2):3149
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  134. Lucas RE. 1988.. On the mechanics of economic development. . J. Monet. Econ. 22:(1):342
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  135. Lugauer S, Ni J, Yin Z. 2019.. Chinese household saving and dependent children: theory and evidence. . China Econ. Rev. 57::101091
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  136. Lutz W, Cuaresma JC, Sanderson W. 2008.. The demography of educational attainment and economic growth. . Science 319:(5866):104748
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  137. Mahlberg B, Freund I, Crespo-Cuaresma J, Prskawetz A. 2013.. Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria. . Lab. Econ. 22::515
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  138. Malthus TR. 1798.. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London:: St. Paul's Church-Yard
    [Google Scholar]
  139. Marois G, Bélanger A, Lutz W. 2020.. Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe. . PNAS 117:(14):769095
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  140. Marois G, Gietel-Basten S, Lutz W. 2021.. China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity. . PNAS 118:(40):e2108900118
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  141. Mason A, Lee R. 2006.. Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. . Genus 62:(2):1135
    [Google Scholar]
  142. Mason A, Lee R, Jiang JX. 2016.. Demographic dividends, human capital, and saving. . J. Econ. Ageing 7::10622
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  143. Matysiak A, Bellani D, Bogusz H. 2023.. Industrial robots and regional fertility in European countries. . Eur. J. Popul. 39:(1):11
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  144. Matysiak A, Sobotka T, Vignoli D. 2021.. The Great Recession and fertility in Europe: a sub-national analysis. . Eur. J. Popul. 37:(1):2964
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  145. Meng L, Peng L, Zhou Y. 2023.. Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China. . Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 101::103920
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  146. Mincer J, Ofek H. 1982.. Interrupted work careers: depreciation and restoration of human capital. . J. Hum. Resourc. 17:(1):324
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  147. Moffitt R. 1984.. Profiles of fertility, labour supply and wages of married women: a complete life-cycle model. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 51:(2):26378
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  148. Myrskylä M, Goldstein JR, Cheng Y-hA. 2013.. New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world: rises, falls, and reversals. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 39:(1):3156
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  149. Myrskylä M, Kohler H, Billari FC. 2009.. Advances in development reverse fertility rate. . Nature 460:(7256):74143
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  150. Nie P, Peng X, Luo T. 2023.. Internet use and fertility behavior among reproductive-age women in China. . China Econ. Rev. 77::101903
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  151. Nie P, Sousa-Poza A, Nimrod G. 2017.. Internet use and subjective well-being in China. . Soc. Indic. Res. 132:(1):489516
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  152. Olivetti C, Petrongolo B. 2017.. The economic consequences of family policies: lessons from a century of legislation in high-income countries. . J. Econ. Perspect. 31:(1):20530
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  153. Omori T. 2009.. Effects of public education and social security on fertility. . J. Popul. Econ. 22:(3):585601
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  154. Peterson PG. 1999.. Gray dawn: the global aging crisis. . Foreign Aff. 78:(1):4255
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  155. Prettner K. 2014.. The non-monotonous impact of population growth on economic prosperity. . Econ. Lett. 124:(1):9395
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  156. Prettner K, Bloom D. 2020.. Automation and Its Macroeconomic Consequences: Theory, Evidence, and Social Impacts. Amsterdam:: Academic
    [Google Scholar]
  157. Prettner K, Bloom D, Strulik H. 2013.. Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?. Labour Econ. 22::7079
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  158. Prettner K, Strulik H. 2017.. It's a sin—contraceptive use, religious beliefs, and long-run economic development. . Rev. Dev. Econ. 21:(3):54366
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  159. Prettner K, Werner K. 2016.. Why it pays off to pay us well: the impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare. . Res. Policy 45:(5):107590
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  160. Raute A. 2019.. Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits. . J. Public Econ. 169::20322
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  161. Riphahn RT, Wiynck F. 2017.. Fertility effects of child benefits. . J. Popul. Econ. 30:(4):113584
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  162. Romer P. 1990.. Endogenous technological change. . J. Political Econ. 98:(5):71102
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  163. Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge M, Stawarz N, Sander N. 2022.. 30 years of East-West migration in Germany: a synthesis of the literature and potential directions for future research. . Comp. Popul. Stud. 47::185210
    [Google Scholar]
  164. Sánchez-Romero M. 2013.. The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates. . J. Popul. Econ. 26:(4):134777
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  165. Sánchez-Romero M, d'Albis H, Prskawetz A. 2016.. Education, lifetime labor supply, and longevity improvements. . J. Econ. Dyn. Control 73::11841
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  166. Sánchez-Romero M, Patxot C, Rentería E, Souto G. 2013.. On the effects of public and private transfers on capital accumulation: some lessons from the NTA aggregates. . J. Popul. Econ. 26:(4):140930
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  167. Sánchez-Romero M, Prskawetz A. 2023.. Social security reforms in heterogeneous aging populations. . In The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing, ed. DE Bloom, A Sousa-Poza, U Sunde , pp. 199216. London:: Routledge
    [Google Scholar]
  168. Schneider-Mayerson M, Leong KL. 2020.. Eco-reproductive concerns in the age of climate change. . Clim. Change 163:(2):100723
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  169. Sellers S, Gray C. 2019.. Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia. . World Dev. 117::35769
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  170. Seltzer JA. 2019a.. Family change and changing family demography. . Demography 56:(2):40526
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  171. Seltzer N. 2019b.. Beyond the Great Recession: labor market polarization and ongoing fertility decline in the United States. . Demography 56:(4):146393
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  172. Shen Z, Zheng X, Yang H. 2020.. The fertility effects of public pension: evidence from the new rural pension scheme in China. . PLOS ONE 15:(6):e0234657
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  173. Sironi M, Kashyap R. 2022.. Internet access and partnership formation in the United States. . Popul. Stud. 76:(3):42745
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  174. Siskova M, Kuhn M, Prettner K, Prskawetz A. 2023.. Does human capital compensate for population decline?. J. Econ. Ageing 26::100469
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  175. Skakkebæk NE, Lindahl-Jacobsen R, Levine H, Andersson A-M, Jørgensen N, et al. 2022.. Environmental factors in declining human fertility. . Nat. Rev. Endocrinol. 18:(3):13957
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  176. Skirbekk V. 2022.. Decline and Prosper! Changing Global Birth Rates and the Advantages of Fewer Children. London:: Palgrave Macmillan
    [Google Scholar]
  177. Sobotka T. 2004.. Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing?. Popul. Dev. Rev. 30:(2):195220
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  178. Sobotka T, Zeman K, Jasilioniene A, Winkler-Dworak M, Brzozowska Z, et al. 2023.. Pandemic roller-coaster? Birth trends in higher-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. . Popul. Dev. Rev. In press. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12544
    [Google Scholar]
  179. Sommer K. 2016.. Fertility choice in a life cycle model with idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk. . J. Monet. Econ. 83::2738
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  180. Spolaore E, Wacziarg R. 2022.. Fertility and modernity. . Econ. J. 132:(642):796833
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  181. Stähler N. 2021.. The impact of aging and automation on the macroeconomy and inequality. . J. Macroecon. 67::103278
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  182. Strulik H. 2022.. Long-run economic growth despite population decline. Tech. Rep. , Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Ger:.
    [Google Scholar]
  183. Strulik H, Prettner K, Prskawetz A. 2013.. The past and future of knowledge-based growth. . J. Econ. Growth 18:(4):41137
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  184. Summers LH. 2015.. Demand side secular stagnation. . Am. Econ. Rev. 105:(5):6065
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  185. Testa MR, Cavalli L, Rosina A. 2014.. The effect of couple disagreement about child-timing intentions: a parity-specific approach. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 40:(1):3153
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  186. Tong Q, Chu C-Y, Zhou D, Feng Y. 2021.. Does internet connectedness disconnect marriage? A micro empirical analysis. . Soc. Indic. Res. 158:(1):14376
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  187. Trinitapoli J, Yeatman S. 2018.. The flexibility of fertility preferences in a context of uncertainty. . Popul. Dev. Rev. 44:(1):87116
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  188. United Nations. 2022.. World population prospects 2022. Rep. , United Nations, New York:. https://population.un.org/dataportal/
    [Google Scholar]
  189. Vallas S, Schor JB. 2020.. What do platforms do? Understanding the gig economy. . Annu. Rev. Sociol. 46::27394
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  190. Vogl TS. 2016.. Differential fertility, human capital, and development. . Rev. Econ. Stud. 83:(1):365401
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  191. Weil DN. 1997.. The economics of population aging. . In Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Vol. 1, ed. MR Rosenzweig, O Stark , pp. 9671014. Amsterdam:: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  192. Weil DN. 2007.. Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth. . Q. J. Econ. 122:(3):1265306
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  193. Willis RJ. 1973.. A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. . J. Political Econ. 81:(2, Pt. 2):S1464
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
  194. Willis RJ. 1979.. The old age security hypothesis and population growth. NBER Work. Pap. 0372
    [Google Scholar]
  195. World Bank. 2023.. World Development Indicators 1960–2023. Washington, DC:: World Bank
    [Google Scholar]
  196. World Econ. Forum. 2004.. Living happily ever after: the economic implications of aging societies. Executive summary of a report to the World Economic Forum Pension Readiness Initiative , World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switz.:
    [Google Scholar]
  197. Yew SL, Zhang J. 2013.. Socially optimal social security and education subsidization in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth. . J. Econ. Dyn. Control 37:(1):15475
    [Crossref] [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750
Loading
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error