1932

Abstract

This article reviews the theoretical literature on asset price bubbles, with an emphasis on the martingale theory of bubbles. The key questions studied are as follows: First, under what conditions can asset price bubbles exist in an economy? Second, if bubbles exist, what are the implications for the pricing of derivatives on the bubble-laden asset? Third, if bubbles can exist, how can they be empirically determined? Answers are provided for three frictionless and competitive economies with increasingly restrictive structures. The least restrictive economy just assumes no arbitrage. The next satisfies no arbitrage and no dominance. The third assumes the existence of an equilibrium.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-financial-030215-035912
2015-12-07
2024-05-07
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/financial/7/1/annurev-financial-030215-035912.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-financial-030215-035912&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Abreu D, Brunnermeier M. 2003. Bubbles and crashes. Econometrica 71:1173–204 [Google Scholar]
  2. Allen F, Gale D. 1992. Stock price manipulation. Rev. Financ. Stud. 5:3503–29 [Google Scholar]
  3. Allen F, Gorton G. 1992. Stock price manipulation, market microstructure and asymmetric information. Eur. Econ. Rev. 36:624–30 [Google Scholar]
  4. Andersen J, Sornette D. 2004. Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles. Physica A 337:565–85 [Google Scholar]
  5. Andersen L, Piterbarg V. 2007. Moment explosions in stochastic volatility models. Finance Stoch. 11:29–50 [Google Scholar]
  6. Battalio R, Schultz P. 2006. Options and the bubble. J. Finance 59:52017–102 [Google Scholar]
  7. Biagini F, Follmer H, Nedelcu S. 2014. Shifting martingale measures and the birth of a bubble as a submartingale. Finance Stoch. 18:297–326 [Google Scholar]
  8. Brunnermeier M, Nagel S. 2004. Hedge funds and the technology bubble. J. Finance 59:52013–40 [Google Scholar]
  9. Camerer C. 1989. Bubbles and fads in asset prices. J. Econ. Surv. 3:13–41 [Google Scholar]
  10. Case K, Shiller R. 2003. Is there a bubble in the housing market?. Brookings Pap. Econ. Act. 2003:2299–342 [Google Scholar]
  11. Chen X, Kohn R. 2011. Asset price bubbles from heterogeneous beliefs about mean reversion rates. Finance Stoch. 15:221–41 [Google Scholar]
  12. Clark S, Coggin D. 2011. Was there a US house price bubble? An econometric analysis using national and regional panel data. Q. Rev. Econ. Finance 51:189–200 [Google Scholar]
  13. Cox AMG, Hobson DG. 2005. Local martingales, bubbles and option prices. Finance Stoch. 9:4477–92 [Google Scholar]
  14. Cuñado J, Gil-Alana LA, Perez de Gracia F. 2005. A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: a fractionally integrated approach. J. Bank. Finance 29:2633–54 [Google Scholar]
  15. Dalang RC, Morton A, Willinger W. 1990. Equivalent martingale measures and no-arbitrage in stochastic securities market models. Stoch. Stoch. Rep. 29:185–201 [Google Scholar]
  16. Delbaen F, Schachermayer W. 1994. A general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Math. Ann. 300:3463–520 [Google Scholar]
  17. Delbaen F, Schachermayer W. 1998. The fundamental theorem of asset pricing for unbounded stochastic processes. Math. Ann. 312:2215–50 [Google Scholar]
  18. Delbaen F, Shirakawa H. 2002. No arbitrage condition for positive diffusion price processes. Asia-Pac. Financ. Mark. 9:159–168 [Google Scholar]
  19. De Long JB, Shleifer A. 1991. The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from closed-end mutual funds. J. Econ. Hist. 51:3675–700 [Google Scholar]
  20. De Long JB, Shleifer A, Summers L, Waldmann R. 1990. Noise trader risk in financial markets. J. Polit. Econ. 98:4703–38 [Google Scholar]
  21. Dezhbakhsh H, Demirguc-Kunt A. 1990. On the presence of speculative bubbles in stock prices. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 25:1101–12 [Google Scholar]
  22. Diba B, Grossman H. 1988. Explosive rational bubbles in stock prices. Am. Econ. Rev. 78:3520–30 [Google Scholar]
  23. Donaldson RG, Kamstra M. 1996. A new dividend forecasting procedure that rejects bubbles in asset price: the case of 1929's stock crash. Rev. Financ. Stud. 9:2333–83 [Google Scholar]
  24. Duffie D. 2001. Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 3rd ed..
  25. Evans G. 1986. A test for speculative bubbles in the sterling-dollar exchange rate: 1981–84. Am. Econ. Rev. 76:4621–36 [Google Scholar]
  26. Flood R, Garber P. 1980. Market fundamentals versus price-level bubbles: the first tests. J. Polit. Econ. 88:4745–70 [Google Scholar]
  27. Frey R. 1998. Perfect option hedging for a large trader. Finance Stoch. 2:115–41 [Google Scholar]
  28. Frey R, Stremme A. 1997. Market volatility and feedback effects from dynamic hedging. Math. Finance 7:4351–74 [Google Scholar]
  29. Froot K, Obstfeld M. 1991. Intrinsic bubbles: the case of stock prices. Am. Econ. Rev. 81:51189–214 [Google Scholar]
  30. Garber P. 1989. Tulipmania. J. Polit. Econ. 97:3535–60 [Google Scholar]
  31. Garber P. 1990. Famous first bubbles. J. Econ. Perspect. 4:235–54 [Google Scholar]
  32. Gilles C. 1988. Charges as equilibrium prices and asset bubbles. J. Math. Econ. 18:155–67 [Google Scholar]
  33. Gilles C, LeRoy SF. 1992. Bubbles and charges. Int. Econ. Rev. 33:2323–39 [Google Scholar]
  34. Goodman A, Thibodeau T. 2008. Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing market?. J. Hous. Econ. 17:117–37 [Google Scholar]
  35. Harrison JM, Kreps D. 1978. Speculative investor behavior in a stock market with heterogeneous expectations. Q. J. Econ. 92:2323–36 [Google Scholar]
  36. Heston S, Loewenstein M, Willard GA. 2007. Options and bubbles. Rev. Financ. Stud. 20:2359–90 [Google Scholar]
  37. Hong H, Scheinkman J, Xiong W. 2006. Asset float and speculative bubbles. J. Finance 61:31073–117 [Google Scholar]
  38. Hugonnier J. 2012. Rational asset pricing bubbles and portfolio constraints. J. Econ. Theory 147:2260–302 [Google Scholar]
  39. Hugonnier J, Prieto R. 2014. Asset pricing with arbitrage activity Work. Pap., Sch. Manag., Boston Univ. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2351268
  40. Jacod J, Protter P. 2010. Risk neutral compatibility with option prices. Finance Stoch. 14:285–315 [Google Scholar]
  41. Jarrow R. 1992. Market manipulation, bubbles, corners and short squeezes. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 27:3311–36 [Google Scholar]
  42. Jarrow R. 1994. Derivative security markets, market manipulation, and option pricing theory. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 29:2241–61 [Google Scholar]
  43. Jarrow R, Kchia Y, Protter P. 2011a. How to detect an asset bubble. SIAM J. Financ. Math. 2:839–65 [Google Scholar]
  44. Jarrow R, Kchia Y, Protter P. 2011b. Is there a bubble in LinkedIn's stock price?. J. Portf. Manag 38:125–130 [Google Scholar]
  45. Jarrow R, Larsson M. 2012. The meaning of market efficiency. Math. Finance 22:11–30 [Google Scholar]
  46. Jarrow R, Larsson M. 2014. Informational efficiency under short sale constraints Work. Pap., Dep. Econ., Cornell Univ. http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.1851
  47. Jarrow R, Madan DB. 2000. Arbitrage, martingales, and private monetary value. J. Risk 3:173–90 [Google Scholar]
  48. Jarrow R, Protter P. 2008. An introduction to financial asset pricing. Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 15 J Birge, V Linetsky 13–69 Amsterdam: Elsevier [Google Scholar]
  49. Jarrow R, Protter P. 2009. Forward and futures prices with bubbles. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 12:7901–24 [Google Scholar]
  50. Jarrow R, Protter P. 2011. Foreign currency bubbles. Rev. Deriv. Res. 14:67–83 [Google Scholar]
  51. Jarrow R, Protter P, Pulido S. 2015. The effect of trading futures on short sale constraints. Math. Finance 25:311–38 [Google Scholar]
  52. Jarrow R, Protter P, Roch A. 2012. A liquidity-based model for asset price bubbles. Quant. Finance 12:91339–49 [Google Scholar]
  53. Jarrow R, Protter P, Shimbo K. 2007. Asset price bubbles in complete markets. In. Advances in Mathematical Finance M Fu, R Jarrow, J-Y Yen, R Elliott 97–121 Boston: Birkhäuser [Google Scholar]
  54. Jarrow R, Protter P, Shimbo K. 2010. Asset price bubbles in incomplete markets. Math. Finance 20:2145–85 [Google Scholar]
  55. Kabanov Y. 2008. In discrete time a local martingale is a martingale under an equivalent probability measure. Finance Stoch. 12:293–97 [Google Scholar]
  56. Kamara A, Miller T. 1995. Daily and intradaily tests of European put call parity. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 30:4519–39 [Google Scholar]
  57. Kardaras C, Kreher D, Nikeghbali A. 2015. Strict local martingales and bubbles. Ann. Appl. Probab. 25:1827–67 [Google Scholar]
  58. Keller-Ressel M. 2014. Simple examples of pure jump strict local martingales Work. Pap., Dep. Math., Tech. Univ. Dresd. http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.2669
  59. Klemkosky R, Resnick B. 1980. An ex ante analysis of put call parity. J. Financ. Econ. 8:4363–78 [Google Scholar]
  60. Klenke A. 2008. Probability Theory: A Comprehensive Course Berlin: Springer
  61. Kopp PE. 1984. Martingales and Stochastic Integrals London: Cambridge Univ. Press [Google Scholar]
  62. Koustas Z, Serletis A. 2005. Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?. J. Bank. Finance 29:2523–39 [Google Scholar]
  63. Lions P, Musiela M. 2007. Correlations and bounds for stochastic volatility models. Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré C Nonlinear Anal. 24:11–16 [Google Scholar]
  64. Loewenstein M, Willard GA. 2000a. Rational equilibrium asset-pricing bubbles in continuous trading models. J. Econ. Theory 91:117–58 [Google Scholar]
  65. Loewenstein M, Willard GA. 2000b. Local martingales, arbitrage and viability: free snacks and cheap thrills. Econ. Theory 16:135–61 [Google Scholar]
  66. McQueen G, Thorley S. 1994. Bubbles, stock returns and duration dependence. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 29:3379–401 [Google Scholar]
  67. Meese R. 1986. Testing for bubbles in exchange markets: a case of sparkling rates?. J. Polit. Econ. 94:2345–73 [Google Scholar]
  68. Merton RC. 1973. Theory of rational option pricing. Bell J. Econ. 4:1141–83 [Google Scholar]
  69. Mijatovic A, Urusov M. 2012. On the martingale property of certain local martingales. Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 152:1–30 [Google Scholar]
  70. Mikhed V, Zemcik P. 2009. Testing for bubbles in housing markets: a panel data approach. J. Real Estate Econ. 38:366–86 [Google Scholar]
  71. O'Connell S, Zeldes S. 1988. Rational Ponzi games. Int. Econ. Rev. 29:3431–50 [Google Scholar]
  72. Ofek E, Richardson M. 2003. Dotcom mania: the rise and fall of internet stock prices. J. Finance 58:31113–37 [Google Scholar]
  73. Pastor L, Veronesi P. 2006. Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?. J. Financ. Econ. 81:61–100 [Google Scholar]
  74. Protter P. 2001. A partial introduction to financial asset pricing theory. Stoch. Process. Appl. 91:2169–203 [Google Scholar]
  75. Protter P. 2013. A mathematical theory of financial bubbles. Paris–Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2013 V Henderson, R Sircar 1–108 New York: Springer [Google Scholar]
  76. Protter P. 2015. Strict local martingales with jumps. Stoch. Process. Appl. 125:41352–78 [Google Scholar]
  77. Putnins T. 2012. Market manipulation: a survey. J. Econ. Surv. 26:5952–67 [Google Scholar]
  78. Rappoport P, White E. 1993. Was there a bubble in the 1929 stock market?. J. Econ. Hist. 53:3549–74 [Google Scholar]
  79. Santos M, Woodford M. 1997. Rational asset pricing bubbles. Econometrica 65:119–57 [Google Scholar]
  80. Scheinkman J. 2013. Speculation, trading and bubbles Work. Pap. 050-2013, Econ. Theory Cent., Princet. Univ. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2227701
  81. Scheinkman J, Xiong W. 2003. Heterogeneous beliefs, speculation and trading in financial markets. Paris–Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance R Carmona, E Çinlar, I Ekeland, E Jouini, J Scheinkman, N Touzi 217–50 New York: Springer [Google Scholar]
  82. Schweizer M, Wissel J. 2008. Term structures of implied volatilities: absence of arbitrage and existence results. Math. Finance 18:77–114 [Google Scholar]
  83. Shiryaev A, Zhitlukhin M, Ziemba W. 2015. Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. Quant. Finance 15:91449–69 [Google Scholar]
  84. Sin C. 1998. Complications with stochastic volatility models. Adv. Appl. Probab. 30:256–68 [Google Scholar]
  85. Stone D, Ziemba W. 1993. Land and stock prices in Japan. J. Econ. Perspect. 7:3149–65 [Google Scholar]
  86. Temin P, Voth H. 2004. Riding the South Sea bubble. Am. Econ. Rev. 94:51654–68 [Google Scholar]
  87. Tirole J. 1982. On the possibility of speculation under rational expectations. Econometrica 50:51163–82 [Google Scholar]
  88. Tirole J. 1985. Asset bubbles and overlapping generations. Econometrica 53:51071–100 [Google Scholar]
  89. Weil P. 1990. On the possibility of price decreasing bubbles. Econometrica 58:61467–74 [Google Scholar]
  90. West KD. 1987. A specification test for speculative bubbles. Q. J. Econ. 102:3553–80 [Google Scholar]
  91. West KD. 1988. Bubbles, fads and stock price volatility tests: a partial evaluation. J. Finance 43:3639–56 [Google Scholar]
  92. White E. 1990. The stock market boom and crash of 1929 revisited. J. Econ. Perspect. 4:267–83 [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-financial-030215-035912
Loading
  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error