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Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Volume 51, 2023

Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering

  • Katharine Ricke1,2, Jessica S. Wan1, Marissa Saenger1 and Nicholas J. Lutsko1
  • 1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA; email: [email protected] 2School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
  • Vol. 51:447-470 (Volume publication date May 2023)
  • First published as a Review in Advance on February 07, 2023
  • Copyright © 2023 by the author(s).
    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See credit lines of images or other third-party material in this article for license information

Abstract

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise and climate change becomes more destructive, geoengineering has become a subject of serious consideration. By reflecting a fraction of incoming sunlight, solar geoengineering could cool the planet quickly, but with uncertain effects on regional climatology, particularly hydrological patterns. Here, we review recent work on projected hydrologic outcomes of solar geoengineering, in the context of a robust literature on hydrological responses to climate change. While most approaches to solar geoengineering are expected to weaken the global hydrologic cycle, regional effects will vary based on implementation method and strategy. The literature on the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of geoengineering demonstrates that its implications for human welfare will depend on assumptions about underlying social conditions and objectives of intervention as well as the social lens through which projected effects are interpreted. We conclude with suggestions to reduce decision-relevant uncertainties in this novel field of Earth science inquiry.

  • ▪  The expected hydrological effects of reducing insolation are among the most uncertain and consequential impacts of solar geoengineering (SG).
  • ▪  Theoretical frameworks from broader climate science can help explain SG's effects on global precipitation, relative humidity, and other aspects of hydroclimate.
  • ▪  The state of the knowledge on hydrological impacts of SG is unevenly concentrated among regions.
  • ▪  Projected hydrological impacts from SG are scenario dependent and difficult to characterize as either harmful or beneficial.

Keyword(s): climate change impacts, climate intervention, geoengineering, hydrologic cycle, precipitation, solar radiation modification
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2023-05-31
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Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 51, 447 (2023); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456
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