1932

Abstract

Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: () determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, () climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and () societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708
2021-10-18
2024-10-12
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/energy/46/1/annurev-environ-012220-014708.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. 1. 
    Adger WN, Pulhin JM, Barnett J, Dabelko GD, Hovelsrud GK et al. A 2014. Human security. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al.755–91 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  2. 2. 
    Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Bindi M, Brown S et al. A 2018. Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems. Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, HO Pörtner, D Roberts, J Skea et al.175–311 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  3. 3. 
    Steffen W, Rockström J, Richardson K, Lenton TM, Folke C et al. A 2018. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS 115:8252–59
    [Google Scholar]
  4. 4. 
    Milkoreit M, Hodbod J, Baggio J, Benessaiah K, Calderón-Contreras R et al. 2018. Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship—an interdisciplinary literature review. Environ. Res. Lett. 13:3033005
    [Google Scholar]
  5. 5. 
    Brown C, Alexander P, Arneth A, Holman I, Rounsevell M 2019.. A Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system. Nat. Clim. Change 9:3203–8
    [Google Scholar]
  6. 6. 
    Sanderson BM, Knutti R 2017. Delays in US mitigation could rule out Paris targets. Nat. Clim. Change 7:292–94
    [Google Scholar]
  7. 7. 
    Koubi V 2019. Climate change and conflict. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 22:34360
    [Google Scholar]
  8. 8. 
    von Uexkull N, Buhaug H 2021. Security implications of climate change: a decade of scientific progress. J. Peace Res. 58:13–17
    [Google Scholar]
  9. 9. 
    Thomas K, Hardy RD, Lazrus H, Mendez M, Orlov B et al. 2019. Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: a social science review. WIREs Clim. Change 10:2e565
    [Google Scholar]
  10. 10. 
    Otto IM, Reckien D, Reyer CPO, Marcus R, Le Masson V et al. 2017. Social vulnerability to climate change: a review of concepts and evidence. Reg. Environ. Change 17:61651–62
    [Google Scholar]
  11. 11. 
    Davenport C, Nygård HM, Fjelde H, Armstrong D 2019. The consequences of contention: understanding the aftereffects of political conflict and violence. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 22:361–77
    [Google Scholar]
  12. 12. 
    Cardona O-D, van Aalst MK, Birkmann J, Fordham M, McGregor G et al. 2012. Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation CB Field, V Barros, TF Stocker, Q Dahe 65–108 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  13. 13. 
    Oppenheimer M, Campos M, Warren R, Birkmann J, Luber G et al. 2014. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al.1039–99 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  14. 14. 
    Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Field CB. 2016. Understanding and responding to danger from climate change: the role of key risks in the IPCC AR5. Clim. Change 136:3–4427–44
    [Google Scholar]
  15. 15. 
    Matthews JBR 2018. Glossary. Global Warming of 1.5°C V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, H-O Pörtner, D Roberts, J Skea et al.541–62 Geneva: Intergov. Panel Clim. Change
    [Google Scholar]
  16. 16. 
    Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M et al. 2019. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571:193–97
    [Google Scholar]
  17. 17. 
    Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA. 2014. What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. J. Econ. Lit. 52:3740–98
    [Google Scholar]
  18. 18. 
    Gates S, Hegre H, Nygård HM, Strand H. 2012. Development consequences of armed conflict. World Dev 40:91713–22
    [Google Scholar]
  19. 19. 
    UNHCR (UN High Comm. Refug.) 2020. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2019 Geneva: UNHCR
    [Google Scholar]
  20. 20. 
    FAO (UN Food Agric. Organ.), IFAD (Int. Fund Agric. Dev.), UNICEF (UN Int. Child. Emerg. Fund), WFP (World Food Progr.), WHO (World Health Organ.) 2020. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020 Rome: FAO
    [Google Scholar]
  21. 21. 
    Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD et al. 2014. Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al.1–32 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  22. 22. 
    Collier P, Elliott VL, Hegre H, Reynal-Querol M, Sambanis N. 2003. Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy Washington, DC: World Bank/Oxford Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  23. 23. 
    Braithwaite A, Dasandi N, Hudson D. 2016. Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap. Confl. Manag. Peace Sci. 33:145–66
    [Google Scholar]
  24. 24. 
    Hegre H, Nygård HM, Ræder RF. 2017. Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: a dynamic simulation approach. J. Peace Res. 54:2243–61
    [Google Scholar]
  25. 25. 
    Smith D, Vivekananda J. 2007. A Climate of Conflict London: Int. Alert
    [Google Scholar]
  26. 26. 
    Buhaug H. 2015. Climate-conflict research: some reflections on the way forward. WIREs Clim. Change 6:3269–75
    [Google Scholar]
  27. 27. 
    Cappelli F, Conigliani C, Costantini V, Lelo K, Markandya A et al. 2020. Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent. J. Spat. Econom. 1:15
    [Google Scholar]
  28. 28. 
    Ford JD, Pearce T, McDowell G, Berrang-Ford L, Sayles JS, Belfer E. 2018. Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research. Clim. Change 151:189–203
    [Google Scholar]
  29. 29. 
    IPCC (Intergov. Panel Clim. Change) 2019. Summary for policymakers. Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems PR Shukla, J Skea, E Calvo Buendia, V Masson-Delmotte, H-O Pörtner et al.1–36 Geneva: IPCC
    [Google Scholar]
  30. 30. 
    IPCC (Intergov. Panel Clim. Change) 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C Geneva: World Meteorol. Organ.
    [Google Scholar]
  31. 31. 
    Marktanner M, Mienie E, Noiset L. 2015. From armed conflict to disaster vulnerability. Disaster Prev. Manag. 24:153–69
    [Google Scholar]
  32. 32. 
    Pettersson T, Öberg M. 2020. Organized violence, 1989–2019. J. Peace Res. 57:4597–613
    [Google Scholar]
  33. 33. 
    Smit B, Wandel J. 2006. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob. Environ. Change 16:3282–92
    [Google Scholar]
  34. 34. 
    Füssel H-M, Klein R. 2006. Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim. Change 75:3301–29
    [Google Scholar]
  35. 35. 
    Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly MP 2005. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob. Environ. Change 15:2151–63
    [Google Scholar]
  36. 36. 
    Fawcett D, Pearce T, Ford JD, Archer L. 2017. Operationalizing longitudinal approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment. Glob. Environ. Change 45:79–88
    [Google Scholar]
  37. 37. 
    O'Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U, Venema H, Aandahl G et al. 2004. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Glob. Environ. Change 14:4303–13
    [Google Scholar]
  38. 38. 
    Folke C. 2006. Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Glob. Environ. Change 16:3253–67
    [Google Scholar]
  39. 39. 
    Adger WN. 2006. Vulnerability. Glob. Environ. Change 16:3268–81
    [Google Scholar]
  40. 40. 
    Brown K, Westaway E. 2011. Agency, capacity, and resilience to environmental change: lessons from human development, well-being, and disasters. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 36:32142
    [Google Scholar]
  41. 41. 
    Crane TA, Delaney A, Tamás PA, Chesterman S, Ericksen P. 2017. A systematic review of local vulnerability to climate change in developing country agriculture. WIREs Clim. Change 8:4e464
    [Google Scholar]
  42. 42. 
    Black R, Arnell NW, Adger WN, Thomas D, Geddes A 2013. Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environ. Sci. Policy 27:S32–43
    [Google Scholar]
  43. 43. 
    Warner K, Afifi T. 2014. Where the rain falls: evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity. Clim. Dev. 6:11–17
    [Google Scholar]
  44. 44. 
    Seaman JA, Sawdon GE, Acidri J, Petty C. 2014. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries. Clim. Risk Manag 4–5:59–68
    [Google Scholar]
  45. 45. 
    Hallegatte S, Rozenberg J. 2017. Climate change through a poverty lens. Nat. Clim. Change 7:4250–56
    [Google Scholar]
  46. 46. 
    Adger WN, de Campos RS, Mortreux C 2018. Mobility, displacement and migration, and their interactions with vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risks. Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration R McLeman, F Gemenne 29–41 London: Routledge
    [Google Scholar]
  47. 47. 
    Schleussner C-F, Deryng D, D'haen S, Hare W, Lissner T et al. 2018. 1.5°C hotspots: climate hazards, vulnerabilities, and impacts. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour 43:13563
    [Google Scholar]
  48. 48. 
    Douglas I, Alam K, Maghenda M, Mcdonnell Y, Mclean L, Campbell J. 2008. Unjust waters: climate change, flooding and the urban poor in Africa. Environ. Urban. 20:1187–205
    [Google Scholar]
  49. 49. 
    Hardoy J, Pandiella G. 2009. Urban poverty and vulnerability to climate change in Latin America. Environ. Urban. 21:1203–24
    [Google Scholar]
  50. 50. 
    Sietz D, Mamani Choque SE, Lüdeke MKB 2012. Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Reg. Environ. Change 12:3489–505
    [Google Scholar]
  51. 51. 
    Sileshi M, Kadigi R, Mutabazi K, Sieber S. 2019. Analysis of households’ vulnerability to food insecurity and its influencing factors in East Hararghe, Ethiopia. Econ. Struct 8:141
    [Google Scholar]
  52. 52. 
    Pelling M, Garschagen M. 2019. Put equity first in climate adaptation. Nature 569:7756327–29
    [Google Scholar]
  53. 53. 
    Garschagen M, Romero-Lankao P. 2015. Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability. Clim. Change 133:137–52
    [Google Scholar]
  54. 54. 
    Ward PJ, de Ruiter MC, Mård J, Schröter K, Van Loon A et al. 2020. The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies. Water Secur 11:100070
    [Google Scholar]
  55. 55. 
    Sjöstedt M, Povitkina M. 2017. Vulnerability of small island developing states to natural disasters: how much difference can effective governments make?. J. Environ. Dev. 26:182–105
    [Google Scholar]
  56. 56. 
    Rahman MdA 2018. Governance matters: climate change, corruption, and livelihoods in Bangladesh. Clim. Change 147:1–2313–26
    [Google Scholar]
  57. 57. 
    Rahman HMT, Hickey GM. 2020. An analytical framework for assessing context-specific rural livelihood vulnerability. Sustainability 12:145654
    [Google Scholar]
  58. 58. 
    Tennant E, Gilmore EA 2020. Government effectiveness and institutions as determinants of tropical cyclone mortality. PNAS 117:28692–99
    [Google Scholar]
  59. 59. 
    Sen A. 1981. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  60. 60. 
    de Waal A. 2018. The end of famine? Prospects for the elimination of mass starvation by political action. Political Geogr 62:184–95
    [Google Scholar]
  61. 61. 
    Li Q, Reuveny R. 2006. Democracy and environmental degradation. Int. Stud. Q. 50:4935–56
    [Google Scholar]
  62. 62. 
    Connolly-Boutin L, Smit B. 2016. Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. Reg. Environ. Change 16:2385–99
    [Google Scholar]
  63. 63. 
    Paavola J. 2008. Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania. Environ. Sci. Policy 11:7642–54
    [Google Scholar]
  64. 64. 
    Benjaminsen TA, Ba B. 2009. Farmer-herder conflicts, pastoral marginalisation and corruption: a case study from the inland Niger delta of Mali. Geogr. J. 175:171–81
    [Google Scholar]
  65. 65. 
    Oberlack C, Tejada L, Messerli P, Rist S, Giger M. 2016. Sustainable livelihoods in the global land rush? Archetypes of livelihood vulnerability and sustainability potentials. Glob. Environ. Change 41:153–71
    [Google Scholar]
  66. 66. 
    Feenstra RC, Inklaar R, Timmer MP. 2015. The next generation of the Penn World Table. Am. Econ. Rev. 105:103150–82
    [Google Scholar]
  67. 67. 
    Pichler A, Striessnig E. 2013. Differential vulnerability to hurricanes in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic: the contribution of education. Ecology Sociol. 18:331
    [Google Scholar]
  68. 68. 
    López-Marrero T, Wisner B. 2012. Not in the same boat: disasters and differential vulnerability in the insular Caribbean. Caribb. Stud. 40:2129–68
    [Google Scholar]
  69. 69. 
    Sheller M, León YM. 2016. Uneven socio-ecologies of Hispaniola: asymmetric capabilities for climate adaptation in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Geoforum 73:32–46
    [Google Scholar]
  70. 70. 
    Eriksen SH, O'Brien K. 2007. Vulnerability, poverty and the need for sustainable adaptation measures. Climate Policy 7:4337–52
    [Google Scholar]
  71. 71. 
    Cutter SL, Barnes L, Berry M, Burton C, Evans E et al. 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Glob. Environ. Change 18:4598–606
    [Google Scholar]
  72. 72. 
    Chen C, Noble I, Hellmann J, Coffee J, Murillo M, Chawla N. 2015. University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index: country index technical report Rep., Notre Dame Glob. Adapt. Index, Univ. Notre Dame Notre Dame:
    [Google Scholar]
  73. 73. 
    United Nations 2020. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020 New York: UN Dep. Econ. Soc. Aff.
    [Google Scholar]
  74. 74. 
    Hegre H, Petrova K, von Uexkull N 2020. Synergies and trade-offs in reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability 12:208729
    [Google Scholar]
  75. 75. 
    Ravallion M. 2014. Income inequality in the developing world. Science 344:6186851–55
    [Google Scholar]
  76. 76. 
    Alvaredo F, Chancel L, Piketty T, Saez E, Zucman G. World Inequality Report 2018 Rep., World Inequal. Lab., Paris Sch. Econ./Univ. Calif., Berkeley. https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-english.pdf
    [Google Scholar]
  77. 77. 
    Wischnath G, Buhaug H. 2014. Rice or riots: on food production and conflict severity across India. Political Geogr 43:6–15
    [Google Scholar]
  78. 78. 
    Buhaug H, Benjaminsen TA, Sjaastad E, Theisen OM. 2015. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ. Res. Lett. 10:12125015
    [Google Scholar]
  79. 79. 
    Koren O. 2018. Food abundance and violent conflict in Africa. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 100:4981–1006
    [Google Scholar]
  80. 80. 
    Vestby J. 2019. Climate variability and individual motivations for participating in political violence. Glob. Environ. Change 56:114–23
    [Google Scholar]
  81. 81. 
    Maertens R. 2021. Adverse rainfall shocks and civil war: myth or reality?. J. Confl. Resolut. 65:4701–28
    [Google Scholar]
  82. 82. 
    Maystadt J-F, Ecker O. 2014. Extreme weather and civil war: Does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks?. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 96:41157–82
    [Google Scholar]
  83. 83. 
    Raleigh C, Choi HJ, Kniveton D. 2015. The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa. Glob. Environ. Change 32:187–99
    [Google Scholar]
  84. 84. 
    Caruso R, Petrarca I, Ricciuti R. 2016. Climate change, rice crops, and violence: evidence from Indonesia. J. Peace Res. 53:166–83
    [Google Scholar]
  85. 85. 
    McGuirk E, Burke M. 2020. The economic origins of conflict in Africa. J. Political Econ. 128:103940–97
    [Google Scholar]
  86. 86. 
    Brzoska M, Fröhlich C. 2016. Climate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migr. Dev. 5:2190–210
    [Google Scholar]
  87. 87. 
    Boas I, Farbotko C, Adams H, Sterly H, Bush S et al. 2019. Climate migration myths. Nat. Clim. Change 9:12901–3
    [Google Scholar]
  88. 88. 
    De Juan A. 2015. Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003–2005. Political Geogr 45:22–33
    [Google Scholar]
  89. 89. 
    Koubi V, Böhmelt T, Spilker G, Schaffer L. 2018. The determinants of environmental migrants’ conflict perception. Int. Org. 72:4905–36
    [Google Scholar]
  90. 90. 
    Abel GJ, Brottrager M, Crespo Cuaresma J, Muttarak R 2019. Climate, conflict and forced migration. Glob. Environ. Change 54:239–49
    [Google Scholar]
  91. 91. 
    Ash K, Obradovich N. 2020. Climatic stress, internal migration, and Syrian civil war onset. J. Confl. Resolut. 64:13–31
    [Google Scholar]
  92. 92. 
    Scheffran J 2020. Climate extremes and conflict dynamics. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment J Sillmann, S Sippel, S Russo 293–315 Amsterdam: Elsevier
    [Google Scholar]
  93. 93. 
    Mach KJ, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD et al. 2020. Directions for research on climate and conflict. Earth's Future 8:7e2020EF001532
    [Google Scholar]
  94. 94. 
    Theisen OM. 2017. Climate change and violence: insights from political science. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 3:4210–21
    [Google Scholar]
  95. 95. 
    Blattman C, Miguel E 2010. Civil war. J. Econ. Lit. 48:13–57
    [Google Scholar]
  96. 96. 
    Cederman L-E, Gleditsch KS, Buhaug H. 2013. Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  97. 97. 
    Cunningham DE, Lemke D. 2014. Beyond civil war: a quantitative examination of causes of violence within countries. Civ. Wars 16:3328–45
    [Google Scholar]
  98. 98. 
    Jones ZM, Lupu Y. 2018. Is there more violence in the middle?. Am. J. Political Sci. 62:3652–67
    [Google Scholar]
  99. 99. 
    Bretthauer JM. 2015. Conditions for peace and conflict: applying a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to cases of resource scarcity. J. Confl. Resolut. 59:4593–616
    [Google Scholar]
  100. 100. 
    Buhaug H, Croicu M, Fjelde H, von Uexkull N 2021. A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict. J. Politics 83:1354–66
    [Google Scholar]
  101. 101. 
    von Uexkull N, Croicu M, Fjelde H, Buhaug H. 2016. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. PNAS 113:4412391–96
    [Google Scholar]
  102. 102. 
    Regan PM, Kim H. 2020. Water scarcity, climate adaptation, and armed conflict: insights from Africa. Reg. Environ. Change 20:4129
    [Google Scholar]
  103. 103. 
    Ide T, Brzoska M, Donges JF, Schleussner C-F. 2020. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. Glob. Environ. Change 62:102063
    [Google Scholar]
  104. 104. 
    Döring S. 2020. Come rain, or come wells: how access to groundwater affects communal violence. Political Geogr 76:102073
    [Google Scholar]
  105. 105. 
    Detges A. 2017. Droughts, state-citizen relations and support for political violence in Sub-Saharan Africa: a micro-level analysis. Political Geogr 61:88–98
    [Google Scholar]
  106. 106. 
    Crost B, Duquennois C, Felter JH, Rees DI. 2018. Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: evidence from the Philippines. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 88:379–95
    [Google Scholar]
  107. 107. 
    Salehyan I, Hendrix CS. 2014. Climate shocks and political violence. Glob. Environ. Change 28:239–50
    [Google Scholar]
  108. 108. 
    Walch C. 2018. Disaster risk reduction amidst armed conflict: informal institutions, rebel groups, and wartime political orders. Disasters 42:S239–64
    [Google Scholar]
  109. 109. 
    Kreutz J. 2012. From tremors to talks: Do natural disasters produce ripe moments for resolving separatist conflicts?. Int. Interact. 38:4482–502
    [Google Scholar]
  110. 110. 
    Fjelde H, von Uexkull N 2012. Climate triggers: rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geogr 31:7444–53
    [Google Scholar]
  111. 111. 
    Hegre H. 2014. Democracy and armed conflict. J. Peace Res. 51:2159–72
    [Google Scholar]
  112. 112. 
    Wallensteen P. 2018. Understanding Conflict Resolution Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publ., , 5th ed..
    [Google Scholar]
  113. 113. 
    Fjelde H, Knutsen CH, Nygård HM. 2021. Which institutions matter? Re-considering the democratic civil peace. Int. Stud. Q. 65:1223–37
    [Google Scholar]
  114. 114. 
    Couttenier M, Soubeyran R. 2014. Drought and civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa. Econ. J. 124:575201–44
    [Google Scholar]
  115. 115. 
    Boone C. 2014. Property and Political Order: Land Rights and the Structure of Conflict in Africa Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  116. 116. 
    Ostrom E. 2008. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
    [Google Scholar]
  117. 117. 
    Linke AM, Witmer FDW, O'Loughlin J, McCabe JT, Tir J. 2018. Drought, local institutional contexts, and support for violence in Kenya. J. Confl. Resolut. 62:71544–78
    [Google Scholar]
  118. 118. 
    Bogale A, Korf B. 2007. To share or not to share? (Non-)violence, scarcity and resource access in Somali Region, Ethiopia. J. Dev. Stud 43:4743–65
    [Google Scholar]
  119. 119. 
    Adano WR, Dietz T, Witsenburg K, Zaal F. 2012. Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya's drylands. J. Peace Res. 49:165–80
    [Google Scholar]
  120. 120. 
    Fearon JD. 1995. Rationalist explanations for war. Int. Organ. 49:3379–414
    [Google Scholar]
  121. 121. 
    Tubi A, Feitelson E. 2016. Drought and cooperation in a conflict prone area: Bedouin herders and Jewish farmers in Israel's northern Negev, 1957–1963. Political Geogr 51:30–42
    [Google Scholar]
  122. 122. 
    Besley T, Persson T. 2014. The causes and consequences of development clusters: state capacity, peace, and income. Annu. Rev. Econ. 6:92749
    [Google Scholar]
  123. 123. 
    Smith RP. 2014. The economic costs of military conflict. J. Peace Res. 51:2245–56
    [Google Scholar]
  124. 124. 
    Novta N, Pugacheva E. 2020. The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict Washington, DC: Int. Monet. Fund
    [Google Scholar]
  125. 125. 
    Gupta S, Clements B, Bhattacharya R, Chakravarti S. 2004. Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries. Eur. J. Political Econ. 20:2403–21
    [Google Scholar]
  126. 126. 
    Long AG. 2008. Bilateral trade in the shadow of armed conflict. Int. Stud. Q. 52:181–101
    [Google Scholar]
  127. 127. 
    Stewart F, Humphreys FP, Lea N. 1997. Civil conflict in developing countries over the last quarter of a century: an empirical overview of economic and social consequences. Oxf. Dev. Stud. 25:111–41
    [Google Scholar]
  128. 128. 
    Ezeoha AE, Ugwu JO. 2015. Interactive impact of armed conflicts on foreign direct investments in Africa: interactive impact of armed conflicts on FDI in Africa. Afr. Dev. Rev. 27:4456–68
    [Google Scholar]
  129. 129. 
    Martin-Shields CP, Stojetz W 2019. Food security and conflict: empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict. World Dev 119:150–64
    [Google Scholar]
  130. 130. 
    Adelaja A, George J. 2019. Effects of conflict on agriculture: evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency. World Dev 117:184–95
    [Google Scholar]
  131. 131. 
    Vestby J, Buhaug H, von Uexkull N 2021. Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A dual sector approach. World Dev 138:105273
    [Google Scholar]
  132. 132. 
    Brück T, d'Errico M, Pietrelli R. 2019. The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict. World Dev 119:203–23
    [Google Scholar]
  133. 133. 
    D'Souza A, Jolliffe D 2013. Conflict, food price shocks, and food insecurity: the experience of Afghan households. Food Policy 42:32–47
    [Google Scholar]
  134. 134. 
    Le Billon P 2001. The political ecology of war: natural resources and armed conflicts. Political Geogr 20:5561–84
    [Google Scholar]
  135. 135. 
    Lujala P, Gleditsch NP, Gilmore E. 2005. A diamond curse?: Civil war and a lootable resource. J. Confl. Resolut. 49:4538–62
    [Google Scholar]
  136. 136. 
    Ross ML. 2015. What have we learned about the resource curse?. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 18:23959
    [Google Scholar]
  137. 137. 
    Shemyakina O. 2011. The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: results from Tajikistan. J. Dev. Econ. 95:2186–200
    [Google Scholar]
  138. 138. 
    Chi PC, Bulage P, Urdal H, Sundby J. 2015. A qualitative study exploring the determinants of maternal health service uptake in post-conflict Burundi and Northern Uganda. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 15:118
    [Google Scholar]
  139. 139. 
    Slone M, Mann S. 2016. Effects of war, terrorism and armed conflict on young children: a systematic review. Child Psychiatry Hum. Dev. 47:6950–65
    [Google Scholar]
  140. 140. 
    Cilliers J, Dube O, Siddiqi B. 2016. Reconciling after civil conflict increases social capital but decreases individual well-being. Science 352:6287787–94
    [Google Scholar]
  141. 141. 
    Rustad SA, Rosvold EL, Buhaug H. 2020. Development aid, drought, and coping capacity. J. Dev. Stud. 56:81578–93
    [Google Scholar]
  142. 142. 
    Cheung F, Kube A, Tay L, Diener E, Jackson JJ et al. 2020. The impact of the Syrian conflict on population well-being. Nat. Commun. 11:13899
    [Google Scholar]
  143. 143. 
    Lohaus M, Bussmann M. 2021. The politics of survival or business as usual? Exploring the effects of armed conflict on corruption. J. Int. Relat. Dev. 24:149–70
    [Google Scholar]
  144. 144. 
    Hultquist P. 2017. Is collective repression an effective counterinsurgency technique? Unpacking the cyclical relationship between repression and civil conflict. Confl. Manag. Peace Sci. 34:5507–25
    [Google Scholar]
  145. 145. 
    Henne PS, Klocek J. 2019. Taming the gods: how religious conflict shapes state repression. J. Confl. Resolut. 63:1112–38
    [Google Scholar]
  146. 146. 
    Carey SC, González B. 2021. The legacy of war: the effect of militias on postwar repression. Confl. Manag. Peace Sci 38:324769
    [Google Scholar]
  147. 147. 
    Aliyev H. 2017. Precipitating state failure: do civil wars and violent non-state actors create failed states?. Third World Q 38:91973–89
    [Google Scholar]
  148. 148. 
    Piplani V, Talmadge C. 2016. When war helps civil–military relations: prolonged interstate conflict and the reduced risk of coups. J. Confl. Resolut. 60:81368–94
    [Google Scholar]
  149. 149. 
    Bell C, Sudduth JK. 2017. The causes and outcomes of coup during civil war. J. Confl. Resolut. 61:71432–55
    [Google Scholar]
  150. 150. 
    Blanco L, Ruiz I. 2013. The impact of crime and insecurity on trust in democracy and institutions. Am. Econ. Rev. 103:3284–88
    [Google Scholar]
  151. 151. 
    Fortna VP, Huang R. 2012. Democratization after civil war: a brush-clearing exercise. Int. Stud. Q. 56:4801–8
    [Google Scholar]
  152. 152. 
    Boese VA. 2015. Viva la Revolución, or: Do revolutions lead to more democracy?. Peace Econ. Peace Sci. Public Policy 21:4541–51
    [Google Scholar]
  153. 153. 
    Bakken IV, Buhaug H. 2020. Civil war and female empowerment. J. Confl. Resolut. 65:982–1009
    [Google Scholar]
  154. 154. 
    Davenport C, Moore W, Poe S 2003. Sometimes you just have to leave: domestic threats and forced migration, 1964–1989. Int. Interact. 29:127–55
    [Google Scholar]
  155. 155. 
    Melander E, Öberg M. 2007. The threat of violence and forced migration: geographical scope trumps intensity of fighting. Civ. Wars 9:2156–73
    [Google Scholar]
  156. 156. 
    Adhikari P. 2013. Conflict-induced displacement, understanding the causes of flight. Am. J. Political Sci. 57:182–89
    [Google Scholar]
  157. 157. 
    Echevarria-Coco J, Gardeazabal J. 2021. A spatial model of internal displacement and forced migration. J. Confl. Resolut. 65:2–3591–618
    [Google Scholar]
  158. 158. 
    Plümper T, Neumayer E. 2006. The unequal burden of war: the effect of armed conflict on the gender gap in life expectancy. Int. Org. 60:3723–54
    [Google Scholar]
  159. 159. 
    Melander E 2016. Gender and civil wars. What Do We Know about Civil Wars? TD Mason, SM Mitchell 197–214 Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield
    [Google Scholar]
  160. 160. 
    Webster K, Chen C, Beardsley K. 2019. Conflict, peace, and the evolution of women's empowerment. Int. Organ. 73:2255–89
    [Google Scholar]
  161. 161. 
    Rohner D, Thoenig M, Zilibotti F. 2013. Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda. J. Econ. Growth 18:3217–52
    [Google Scholar]
  162. 162. 
    Wood EJ. 2008. The social processes of civil war: the wartime transformation of social networks. Annu. Rev. Political Sci. 11:53961
    [Google Scholar]
  163. 163. 
    Reuveny R, Mihalache-O'Keef AS, Quan Li 2010. The effect of warfare on the environment. J. Peace Res. 47:6749–61
    [Google Scholar]
  164. 164. 
    Baumann M, Kuemmerle T. 2016. The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems. J. Land Use Sci. 11:6672–88
    [Google Scholar]
  165. 165. 
    Landholm DM, Pradhan P, Kropp JP. 2019. Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics. Glob. Environ. Change 56:86–94
    [Google Scholar]
  166. 166. 
    Burgess R, Miguel E, Stanton C 2015. War and deforestation in Sierra Leone. Environ. Res. Lett. 10:9095014
    [Google Scholar]
  167. 167. 
    FSIN (Food Secur. Inf. Netw.) 2020. Global Report on Food Crises 2020 Rep., FSIN Rome: https://www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/GRFC_2020_ONLINE_200420.pdf
    [Google Scholar]
  168. 168. 
    Sundberg R, Melander E. 2013. Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. J. Peace Res. 50:4523–32
    [Google Scholar]
  169. 169. 
    Acemoglu D, Johnson S, Robinson JA 2001. The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation. Am. Econ. Rev. 91:51369–1401
    [Google Scholar]
  170. 170. 
    CRED (Cent. Res. Epidemiol. Disasters) 2020. EM-DAT Emergency Events Database Louvain, Belg: CRED https://www.emdat.be/ [through Our World in Data; https://ourworldindata.org/, natural-disasters accessedNovember 10 2020.
    [Google Scholar]
  171. 171. 
    World Bank 2020. World Development Indicators Washington, DC: World Bank https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators [accessed November 10, 2020]
    [Google Scholar]
  172. 172. 
    Brown I. 2010. Assessing eco-scarcity as a cause of the outbreak of conflict in Darfur: a remote sensing approach. Int. J. Remote Sensing 31:102513–20
    [Google Scholar]
  173. 173. 
    Wischnath G, Buhaug H. 2014. On climate variability and civil war in Asia. Clim. Change 122:4709–21
    [Google Scholar]
  174. 174. 
    Hegre H, Allansson M, Basedau M, Colaresi M, Croicu M et al. 2019. ViEWS: a political violence early-warning system. J. Peace Res. 56:2155–74
    [Google Scholar]
  175. 175. 
    Justino P. 2009. Poverty and violent conflict: a micro-level perspective on the causes and duration of warfare. J. Peace Res. 46:3315–33
    [Google Scholar]
  176. 176. 
    Linke AM, Ruether B. 2021. Weather, wheat and war: security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria. J. Peace Res. 58:1114–31
    [Google Scholar]
  177. 177. 
    Bagozzi BE, Koren O, Mukherjee B. 2017. Droughts, land appropriation, and rebel violence in the developing world. J. Politics 79:31057–72
    [Google Scholar]
  178. 178. 
    Koren O, Bagozzi BE. 2017. Living off the land: the connection between cropland, food security, and violence against civilians. J. Peace Res. 54:3351–64
    [Google Scholar]
  179. 179. 
    Ekhator-Mobayode UE, Abebe Asfaw A 2019. The child health effects of terrorism: evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria. Appl. Econ. 51:6624–38
    [Google Scholar]
  180. 180. 
    United Nations Security Council 2017. Resolution 2349 on the Lake Chad Basin Region. Resolut. S/RES/2349 2017. March 31. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/S_RES_2349.pdf
  181. 181. 
    Vivekananda J, Wall M, Sylvestre F, Nagarajan C. 2019. Shoring up stability. Addressing climate and fragility risks in the Lake Chad region Rep. Adelphi, Berlin: https://shoring-up-stability.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Shoring-up-Stability.pdf
    [Google Scholar]
  182. 182. 
    Botha A, Abdile M. 2019. Reality versus perception: toward understanding Boko Haram in Nigeria. Stud. Confl. Terror. 42:5493–519
    [Google Scholar]
  183. 183. 
    Angerbrandt H. 2017. Nigeria and the Lake Chad region beyond Boko Haram Policy Note 3:2017 Nordic Afr. Inst. Uppsala, Sweden:
    [Google Scholar]
  184. 184. 
    International Crisis Group 2017. Herders against farmers: Nigeria's expanding deadly conflict Rep. 252 Int. Crisis Grp. Brussels:
    [Google Scholar]
  185. 185. 
    Walter BF. 2004. Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war. J. Peace Res. 41:3371–88
    [Google Scholar]
  186. 186. 
    Dellink R, Chateau J, Lanzi E, Magné B. 2017. Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42:200–214
    [Google Scholar]
  187. 187. 
    van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Calvin K, Dellink R, Emmerling J et al. 2017. The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways: trajectories for human development and global environmental change. Glob. Environ. Change 42:148–52
    [Google Scholar]
  188. 188. 
    O'Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, Ebi KL, Hallegatte S et al. 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim. Change 122:3387–400
    [Google Scholar]
  189. 189. 
    Buhaug H, Vestby J. 2019. On growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Glob. Environ. Politics 19:4118–32
    [Google Scholar]
  190. 190. 
    Bergius M, Benjaminsen TA, Maganga F, Buhaug H. 2020. Green economy, degradation narratives, and land-use conflicts in Tanzania. World Dev 129:104850
    [Google Scholar]
  191. 191. 
    Kikuta K. 2018. Postdisaster reconstruction as a cause of intrastate violence: an instrumental variable analysis with application to the 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka. J. Confl. Resolut. 63:3760–85
    [Google Scholar]
  192. 192. 
    Vivekananda J, Schilling J, Smith D. 2014. Understanding resilience in climate change and conflict affected regions of Nepal. Geopolitics 19:4911–36
    [Google Scholar]
  193. 193. 
    Enenkel M, Brown ME, Vogt JV, McCarty JL, Reid Bell A et al. 2020. Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation. Clim. Change 162:31161–76
    [Google Scholar]
  194. 194. 
    Watmough GR, Marcinko CLJ, Sullivan C, Tschirhart K, Mutuo PK et al. 2019. Socioecologically informed use of remote sensing data to predict rural household poverty. PNAS 116:41213–18
    [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708
Loading
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Review Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error