ENGINEERING-ECONOMIC ANALYSES OF AUTOMOTIVE FUEL ECONOMY POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES¹

Over the past 25 years more than 20 major studies have examined the technological potential to improve the fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks in the United States. The majority have used technology/cost analysis, a combination of analytical methods from the disciplines of economics and automotive engineering. In this review we describe the key elements of this methodology, discuss critical issues responsible for the often widely divergent estimates produced by different studies, review the history of this methodology's use, and present results from six recent assessments. Whereas early studies tended to confine their scope to the potential of proven technology over a 10-year time period, more recent studies have focused on advanced technologies, raising questions about how best to include the likelihood of technological change. The review concludes with recommendations for further research.