1932
0

Annual Review of Resource Economics

Volume 12, 2020

Climate Change and Forests

Abstract

Forests have become an important carbon sink in the last century, with management and carbon fertilization offsetting nearly all of the carbon emitted due to deforestation and conversion of land into agricultural uses. Society appears already to have decided that forests will play an equally ambitious role in the future. Given this, economists are needed to help better understand the efficiency of efforts society may undertake to expand forests, protect them from losses, manage them more intensively, or convert them into wood products, including biomass energy. A rich literature exists on this topic, but a number of critical information gaps persist, representing important opportunities for economists to advance knowledge in the future. This article reviews the literature on forests and climate change and provides some thoughts on potential future research directions.

Keyword(s): adaptation, climate impacts, disturbance, fire, forests, JEL Q23, JEL Q50, JEL Q54, stochastic
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208
2020-10-06
2025-06-22
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/resource/12/1/annurev-resource-110419-010208.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

Literature Cited

  1. Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA, Callaway JM, Winnett SM 1999. Minimum cost strategies for sequestering carbon in forests. Land Econ 75:360–74
     [Google Scholar]
  2. Alig RJ, Adams DM, McCarl BA 1998. Impacts of incorporating land exchanges between forestry and agriculture in sector models. J. Agric. Appl. Econ. 30:389–401
     [Google Scholar]
  3. Alix-Garcia J, De Janvry A, Sadoulet E 2008. The role of deforestation risk and calibrated compensation in designing payments for environmental services. Environ. Dev. Econ. 13:375–94
     [Google Scholar]
  4. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N et al. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For. Ecol. Manag. 259:660–84
     [Google Scholar]
  5. Amacher GS, Malik AS, Haight RG 2005. Not getting burned: the importance of fire prevention in forest management. Land Econ 81:284–302
     [Google Scholar]
  6. Andam KS, Ferraro PJ, Pfaff A, Sanchez-Azofeifa GA, Robalino JA 2008. Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation. PNAS 105:16089–94
     [Google Scholar]
  7. Baker JS, Wade CM, Sohngen BL, Ohrel S, Fawcett AA 2019. Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion. Energy Policy 126:391–401
     [Google Scholar]
  8. Blackman A. 2015. Strict versus mixed-use protected areas: Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve. Ecol. Econ. 112:14–24
     [Google Scholar]
  9. Boisvenue C, Running SW. 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity—evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Glob. Change Biol. 12:862–82
     [Google Scholar]
  10. Brazee R, Mendelsohn R. 1990. A dynamic model of timber markets. For. Sci. 36:255–64
     [Google Scholar]
  11. Busch J, Engelmann J. 2017. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050. Environ. Res. Lett. 13:015001
     [Google Scholar]
  12. Ciais P, Sabine C, Bala G, Bopp L, Brovkin V et al. 2014. Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TF Stocker, D Qin, GK Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen et al.465–570 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
     [Google Scholar]
  13. Daigneault A, Sohngen B, Sedjo R 2012. Economic approach to assess the forest carbon implications of biomass energy. Environ. Sci. Technol. 46:5664–71
     [Google Scholar]
  14. Daigneault AJ, Miranda MJ, Sohngen B 2010. Optimal forest management with carbon sequestration credits and endogenous fire risk. Land Econ 86:155–72
     [Google Scholar]
  15. DeFries RS, Houghton RA, Hansen MC, Field CB, Skole D, Townshend J 2002. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and regrowth based on satellite observations for the 1980s and 1990s. PNAS 99:14256–61
     [Google Scholar]
  16. Favero A, Daigneault A, Sohngen B 2020. Forests: Carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both. Sci. Adv. 6:eaay6792
     [Google Scholar]
  17. Favero A, Mendelsohn R. 2014. Using markets for woody biomass energy to sequester carbon in forests. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 1:75–95
     [Google Scholar]
  18. Favero A, Mendelsohn R, Sohngen B 2017. Using forests for climate mitigation: Sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?. Clim. Change 144:195–206
     [Google Scholar]
  19. Favero A, Mendelsohn R, Sohngen B 2018. Can the global forest sector survive 11°C warming. Agric. Resour. Econ. Rev. 47:388–413
     [Google Scholar]
  20. Fei S, Desprez JM, Potter KM, Jo I, Knott JA, Oswalt CM 2017. Divergence of species responses to climate change. Sci. Adv. 3:e1603055
     [Google Scholar]
  21. Fortmann L, Sohngen B, Southgate D 2017. Assessing the role of group heterogeneity in community forest concessions in Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve. Land Econ 93:503–26
     [Google Scholar]
  22. Golub AA, Henderson BB, Hertel TW, Gerber PJ, Rose SK, Sohngen B 2013. Global climate policy impacts on livestock, land use, livelihoods, and food security. PNAS 110:20894–99
     [Google Scholar]
  23. Griscom BW, Adams J, Ellis PW, Houghton RA, Lomax G et al. 2017. Natural climate solutions. PNAS 114:11645–50
     [Google Scholar]
  24. Guo C, Costello C. 2013. The value of adaption: climate change and timberland management. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 65:452–68
     [Google Scholar]
  25. Haight RG, Smith WD, Straka TJ 1995. Hurricanes and the economics of loblolly pine plantations. For. Sci. 41:675–88
     [Google Scholar]
  26. Hanewinkel M, Cullmann DA, Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Zimmermann NE 2013. Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nat. Clim. Change 3:203–7
     [Google Scholar]
  27. Hashida Y, Lewis DJ. 2019. The intersection between climate adaptation, mitigation, and natural resources: an empirical analysis of forest management. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 6:893–926
     [Google Scholar]
  28. Hoen HF, Solberg B. 1994. Potential and economic efficiency of carbon sequestration in forest biomass through silvicultural management. For. Sci. 40:429–51
     [Google Scholar]
  29. Houghton RA. 2003. Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000. Tellus B 55:378–90
     [Google Scholar]
  30. Houghton RA, House JI, Pongratz J, Van Der Werf GR, DeFries RS et al. 2012. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9:5125–42
     [Google Scholar]
  31. IPCC (Intergov. Panel Clim. Change) 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al. Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
     [Google Scholar]
  32. IPCC (Intergov. Panel Clim. Change) 2018. Global warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty Rep., IPCC Geneva:
     [Google Scholar]
  33. Joyce LA, Mills JR, Heath LS, McGuire AD, Haynes RW, Birdsey RA 1995. Forest sector impacts from changes in forest productivity under climate change. J. Biogeogr. 22:703–13
     [Google Scholar]
  34. Kauppi PE, Ausubel JH, Fang J, Mather AS, Sedjo RA, Waggoner PE 2006. Returning forests analyzed with the forest identity. PNAS 103:17574–79
     [Google Scholar]
  35. Khanna M, Dwivedi P, Abt R 2017. Is forest bioenergy carbon neutral or worse than coal? Implications of carbon accounting methods. Int. Rev. Environ. Resour. Econ. 10:299–346
     [Google Scholar]
  36. Kim JB, Monier E, Sohngen B, Pitts GS, Drapek R et al. 2017. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 12:045001
     [Google Scholar]
  37. Kindermann G, Obersteiner M, Sohngen B, Sathaye J, Andrasko K et al. 2008. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. PNAS 105:10302–7
     [Google Scholar]
  38. Kling DM, Sanchirico JN, Wilen JE 2016. Bioeconomics of managed relocation. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 3:1023–59
     [Google Scholar]
  39. Knott JA, Desprez JM, Oswalt CM, Fei S 2019. Shifts in forest composition in the eastern United States. For. Ecol. Manag. 433:176–83
     [Google Scholar]
  40. Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, Rampley GJ, Neilson ET et al. 2008. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452:987–90
     [Google Scholar]
  41. Latta GS, Baker JS, Beach RH, Rose SK, McCarl BA 2013. A multi-sector intertemporal optimization approach to assess the GHG implications of US forest and agricultural biomass electricity expansion. J. For. Econ. 19:361–83
     [Google Scholar]
  42. Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Hauck J et al. 2018. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10:2141–94
     [Google Scholar]
  43. Lewandrowski J, Peters M, Jones CA, House RM, Sperow M et al. 2004. Economics of sequestering carbon in the US agricultural sector Tech. Bull. 1909, Econ. Res. Serv., US Dep. Agric Washington, DC:
     [Google Scholar]
  44. Lubowski RN, Plantinga AJ, Stavins RN 2006. Land-use change and carbon sinks: econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 51:135–52
     [Google Scholar]
  45. Mendelsohn R, Prentice IC, Schmitz O, Stocker B, Buchkowski R, Dawson B 2016. The ecosystem impacts of severe warming. Am. Econ. Rev. 106:612–14
     [Google Scholar]
  46. Mendelsohn R, Sohngen B. 2019. The net carbon emissions from historic land use and land use change. J. For. Econ. 34:263–83
     [Google Scholar]
  47. Meyfroidt P, Lambin EF, Erb K-H, Hertel TW 2013. Globalization of land use: distant drivers of land change and geographic displacement of land use. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 5:438–44
     [Google Scholar]
  48. Murray BC, McCarl BA, Lee H-C 2004. Estimating leakage from forest carbon sequestration programs. Land Econ 80:109–24
     [Google Scholar]
  49. Murray BC, Sohngen B, Sommer AJ, Depro BM, Jones KM et al. 2005. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential in U.S. forestry and agriculture Rep. EPA 430-R-05-006, US Environ. Prot. Agency Washington, DC:
     [Google Scholar]
  50. Nordhaus WD. 2017. Revisiting the social cost of carbon. PNAS 114:1518–23
     [Google Scholar]
  51. Pan Y, Birdsey RA, Fang J, Houghton R, Kauppi PE et al. 2011. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 333:988–93
     [Google Scholar]
  52. Perez-Garcia J, Joyce LA, McGuire AD, Xiao X 2002. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector. Clim. Change 54:439–61
     [Google Scholar]
  53. Plantinga AJ, Mauldin T, Miller DJ 1999. An econometric analysis of the costs of sequestering carbon in forests. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 81:812–24
     [Google Scholar]
  54. Reed WJ. 1984. The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 11:180–90
     [Google Scholar]
  55. Roe S, Streck C, Obersteiner M, Frank S, Griscom B et al. 2019. Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C world. Nat. Clim. Change 9:817–28
     [Google Scholar]
  56. Searchinger TD, Hamburg SP, Melillo J, Chameides W, Havlik P et al. 2009. Fixing a critical climate accounting error. Science 326:527–28
     [Google Scholar]
  57. Sedjo RA 1989. Forests: a tool to moderate global warming. Environ. Sci. Policy Sustain. Dev. 31:14–20
     [Google Scholar]
  58. Settele J, Scholes R, Betts R, Bunn S, Leadley P, Nepstad D 2014. Terrestrial and inland water systems. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea et al.271–359 Cambridge, UK/New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
     [Google Scholar]
  59. Sills EO, Herrera D, Kirkpatrick AJ, Brandão A Jr, Dickson R et al. 2015. Estimating the impacts of local policy innovation: the synthetic control method applied to tropical deforestation. PLOS ONE 10:e0132590
     [Google Scholar]
  60. Sohngen B. 2009. Analysis of forestry carbon sequestration as a response to climate change Rep., Copenhagen Consens. Cent Frederiksberg, Den: https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/ap_forestry_sohngen_v.2.0.pdf
    [Google Scholar]
  61. Sohngen B, Brown S. 2004. Measuring leakage from carbon projects in open economies: a stop timber harvesting project in Bolivia as a case study. Can. J. For. Res. 34:829–39
     [Google Scholar]
  62. Sohngen B, Mendelsohn R. 1998. Valuing the impact of large-scale ecological change in a market: the effect of climate change on US timber. Am. Econ. Rev. 88:686–710
     [Google Scholar]
  63. Sohngen B, Mendelsohn R. 2003. An optimal control model of forest carbon sequestration. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 85:448–57
     [Google Scholar]
  64. Sohngen B, Mendelsohn R, Sedjo R 2001. A global model of climate change impacts on timber markets. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 26:326–43
     [Google Scholar]
  65. Stavins RN. 1999. The costs of carbon sequestration: a revealed-preference approach. Am. Econ. Rev. 89:994–1009
     [Google Scholar]
  66. Stern N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
     [Google Scholar]
  67. Stocker BD, Roth R, Joos F, Spahni R, Steinacher M et al. 2013. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios. Nat. Clim. Change 3:666–72
     [Google Scholar]
  68. Taylor P, Maslowski W, Perlwitz J, Wuebbles D 2017. Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States. Climate Science Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S. Global Change Research Program DJ Wuebbles, DW Fahey, KA Hibbard, DJ Dokken, BC Stewart, TK Maycock 443–92 Washington, DC: US Glob. Change Res. Prog http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdeptcommercepub/582
    [Google Scholar]
  69. Tian X, Sohngen B, Baker J, Ohrel S, Fawcett AA 2018. Will US forests continue to be a carbon sink. Land Econ 94:97–113
     [Google Scholar]
  70. Tian X, Sohngen B, Kim JB, Ohrel S, Cole J 2016. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Environ. Res. Lett. 11:035011
     [Google Scholar]
  71. Turetsky MR, Kane ES, Harden JW, Ottmar RD, Manies KL et al. 2011. Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands. Nat. Geosci. 4:27–31
     [Google Scholar]
  72. Van Kooten GC, Binkley CS, Delcourt G 1995. Effect of carbon taxes and subsidies on optimal forest rotation age and supply of carbon services. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 77:365–74
     [Google Scholar]
  73. Walker T, Cardellichio P, Colnes A, Gunn J, Kittler B et al. 2010. Biomass sustainability and carbon policy study Rep. NCI-2010-03, Manomet Cent. Conserv. Sci Brunswick, ME: https://www.manomet.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Manomet_Biomass_Report_Full_June2010.pdf
    [Google Scholar]
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208
Loading
Climate Change and Forests
Annual Review of Resource Economics 12, 23 (2020); https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208
/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error