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- Volume 13, 2021
Annual Review of Financial Economics - Volume 13, 2021
Volume 13, 2021
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The Contributions of Stephen A. Ross to Financial Economics
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 1–14More LessStephen A. Ross was one of the most influential scholars in the field of financial economics in the late twentieth century. Ross's work was central to several novel domains of economic inquiry. His contributions included the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), the risk-neutral pricing of contingent claims, the binomial option pricing model, a theory of the term structure of interest rates, a seminal contribution to the economic theory of agency, and insights about conditioning biases in ex post performance measurement. In this article, we discuss his seminal papers and the broad scope of his curiosity within the arc of a remarkably productive and influential career that spanned five decades and yet ended sooner than most who knew him expected.
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Climate Finance
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 15–36More LessIn this article, we review the literature studying interactions between climate change and financial markets. We first discuss various approaches to incorporating climate risk in macrofinance models. We then review the empirical literature that explores the pricing of climate risks across a large number of asset classes, including real estate, equities, and fixed income securities. In this context, we also discuss how investors can use these assets to construct portfolios that hedge against climate risk. We conclude by proposing several promising directions for future research in climate finance.
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Social Finance
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 37–55More LessWe review an empirical literature that studies the role of social interactions in driving economic and financial decision-making. We first summarize recent work that documents an important role of social interactions in explaining household decisions in housing and mortgage markets. This evidence shows, for example, that there are large peer effects in mortgage refinancing decisions and that individuals’ beliefs about the attractiveness of housing market investments are affected by the recent house price experiences of their friends. We also summarize recent work showing that social interactions affect the stock market investments of both retail and professional investors as well as household financial decisions such as retirement savings, borrowing, and default. Along the way, we describe a number of easily accessible recent data sets for the study of social interactions in finance, including the Social Connectedness Index, which measures the frequency of Facebook friendship links across geographies. We conclude by outlining several promising directions for further research in the field of social finance.
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The Rise of Digital Money
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 57–77More LessPayment systems around the world are evolving with the emergence of digital money issued by private firms and central banks. We provide a conceptual framework to compare and contrast traditional forms of money with their new digital equivalents. We suggest that some forms of digital money, while less stable as a store of value, could be rapidly adopted given their advantages as a means of payment. We review the benefits and risks that would emerge. One approach to managing risks would be to require full backing of selected digital money with central bank reserves. We call the arrangement synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC), a private-public partnership that combines the advantages of private sector innovation and customer orientation with the safety and stability of central bank–backed money. We offer policy considerations, directions for research, and an overview of the literature to date. The analysis of digital currencies is an exciting new field crossing into monetary and financial economics that will reshape the monetary and financial systems for many years to come.
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The Economics of Insurance: A Derivatives-Based Approach
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 79–110More LessThis article revisits the economics of insurance using insights from derivatives pricing and hedging. Applying this perspective, I emphasize the following insights applicable to insurance. First, I provide a valid justification for the use of arbitrage-free insurance premiums. This justification applies in both complete and incomplete markets. Second, I demonstrate the importance of diversifiable idiosyncratic risk for the determination of insurance premiums. And third, analyzing the insurance industry using the functional approach, I show the importance of derivatives and the synthetic construction of derivatives for reducing an insurance company's insolvency risk.
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Venture Capital Booms and Start-Up Financing
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 111–127More LessWe review the growing literature on the relationship between venture capital (VC) booms and start-up financing, focusing on three broad areas. First, we discuss the drivers of large inflows into the VC asset class, particularly in recent years, which are related to but also distinct from macroeconomic business cycles and stock market fluctuations. Second, we review the emerging literature on the real effects of VC financing booms. A particular focus of this work is to highlight the potential impact that booms (and busts) can have on the types of firms that VC investors choose to fund and the terms at which they are funded, independent of investment opportunities—thereby shaping the trajectory of innovation being conducted by start-ups. Third, an important insight from recent research is that booms in VC financing are not just a temporal phenomenon but can also be seen in terms of the concentration of VC investment in certain industries and geographies. We also review the role of government policy, exploring the degree to which it can explain the concentration of VC funding in the United States over the past 40 years in just two broad areas—information and communication technologies and biotechnology. We conclude by highlighting promising areas of further research.
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Financial Architecture and Financial Stability
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 129–151More LessThis article studies the links between financial stability and the architecture of financial systems. We review the existing literature and provide organizing frameworks for analyzing three empirically important aspects of financial architecture: the rise of nonbank financial intermediaries, the regulatory response to these structural changes, and the emergence of complex interbank networks. One of our main new results is a necessary and sufficient condition for whether nonbank intermediaries are immune to runs in an extended version of the Diamond–Dybvig model.
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The Economics of Central Clearing
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 153–178More LessCentral clearing counterparties (CCPs) have a variety of economic rationales. The Great Recession of 2007–2009 led regulators to mandate CCPs for most interest-rate and credit derivatives, markets in which large amounts of risks are transferred across agents. This change led to a large increase in CCP studies, which along with classical studies are surveyed in this article. For example, multilateral netting, the insurance against counterparty risk, the effect of CCPs on asset prices and fire sales, margins setting, the default waterfall, and CCP governance are discussed here. We review both CCP theory and empirical work and conclude by discussing regulatory issues.
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Confronting Banking Crises: Lessons from the Field
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 179–199More LessFinancial crises are a recurring feature of modern economies. This article summarizes the lessons learned from policy interventions and tools used to resolve banking crises from a practical, operational perspective and in light of the experiences and challenges faced during and since the 2008 global financial crisis. Managing a systemic banking crisis is a complex, multiyear process and requires a comprehensive framework for addressing systemic banking problems while minimizing taxpayers’ costs.
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Banks and Negative Interest Rates
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 201–218More LessAbstractIn this article, we review the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because the pass-through to banks’ retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize existing research on the impact of negative rates on banks’ lending and securities portfolios as well as their consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different initial conditions when the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other unconventional monetary policies.
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Consumer Protection for Financial Inclusion in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Bridging Regulator and Academic Perspectives
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 219–246More LessMarkets for consumer financial services are growing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries and are being transformed by digital technologies and platforms. With growth and change come concerns about protecting consumers from firm exploitation due to imperfect information and contracting as well as from their own decision-making limitations. We seek to bridge regulator and academic perspectives on these underlying sources of harm and five potential problems that can result: high and hidden prices, overindebtedness, postcontract exploitation, fraud, and discrimination. These potential problems span product markets old and new and could impact micro- and macroeconomies alike. Yet there is little consensus on how to define, diagnose, or treat such problems. Evidence-based consumer financial protection will require substantial advances in theory and especially empirics, and we outline key areas for future research.
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The Rise of State-Owned Investors: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 247–270More LessState-owned investors (SOIs), including sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, have $27 trillion in assets under management in 2020, making these funds the third largest group of asset owners globally. SOIs have become the largest and are among the most important private equity investors, and they are key investors in other alternative asset investments such as real estate, infrastructure, and hedge funds. SOIs are also leaders in promoting environmental, social, and governance policies and corporate social responsibility policies in investee companies. We document the rise of SOIs, assess their current investment policies, and describe how their state ownership both constrains and enhances their investment opportunity sets. We survey the most impactful recent academic research on sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, and their closest financial analogs, private pension funds. We also introduce a new Governance-Sustainability-Resilience Scoreboard for SOIs and survey research examining their role in promoting good corporate governance.
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Do Capital Structure Models Square with the Dynamics of Payout?
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 271–299More LessWe explore whether theoretically the target leverage and pecking-order models can be reconciled with payout smoothing. Investment absorbs a significant part of income and asset volatility if the firm follows both a payout target and a net debt ratio (NDR) target. A positive (negative) NDR amplifies (dampens) shocks in assets. Slow adjustment toward the NDR target facilitates payout smoothing. Under strict pecking-order financing, income shocks are absorbed primarily by changes in net debt. More payout smoothing implies a stronger negative relation between debt and net income. Shocks to assets in place need not affect current payout.
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Diversity on Corporate Boards
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 301–320More LessThis article reviews existing research on board diversity. What role does diversity of board members play in board governance, and how does it influence firm behavior and firm value? First, given the recent focus on board diversity among institutional investors and regulators, we present stylized facts and time trends in board diversity. Second, we discuss the dimensions of diversity that have been examined in the literature. Third, we study the determinants of board diversity. Finally, we assess the research on the effects of board diversity on firm performance and outcomes. We discuss the endogeneity challenges of studying the impact of diversity on firm value and review the main approaches that existing studies have used to address endogeneity. We conclude with suggestions for future research on board diversity.
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Trends in Corporate Borrowing
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 321–340More LessCorporate borrowing has substantially changed over the last two decades. In this article, we investigate changes in borrowing of US publicly listed firms along trends in five key areas: (a) the funding mix of firms and the importance of balance-sheet versus off-balance-sheet borrowing; (b) the costs of corporate borrowing; (c) trends in nonprice loan terms; (d) the importance of banks versus nonbank institutional investors; and (e) the purpose for corporate borrowing. We explore these trends graphically over the 2002–2019 period, provide a narrative for these trends based on the theoretical and empirical literature in the respective areas, and discuss some implications for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finally, we document these trends for firms in the Eurozone countries and delineate similarities and differences.
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Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?
Vol. 13 (2021), pp. 341–362More LessDoes the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But when and where, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for the predictive ability are matters of dispute. Over the years, an increasingly sophisticated set of tools, both statistical and theoretical, has addressed the issue. For the United States, an inverted yield curve, particularly when the spread between the yield on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries becomes negative, has been a robust indicator of recessions in the post–World War II period. The spread also predicts future real GDP growth for the United States, although the forecast ability varies by time period in ways that appear to depend on monetary policy. The evidence is less clear in other countries, but the yield curve shows some predictive ability for the United Kingdom and Germany, among others.
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What Do We Know About Corporate Bond Returns?
Jing-Zhi Huang, and Zhan ShiVol. 13 (2021), pp. 363–399More LessRecently, there has been a fast-growing literature on the determinants of corporate bond returns, in particular, the driving force of cross-sectional return variation. In this review, we first survey recent empirical studies on this important topic. We discuss cross-sectional evidence as well as time-series evidence. We then present a model-based analysis of individual corporate bond returns using the structural approach for credit risk modeling. We show, among other things, that the expected corporate bond return implied by the Merton model predicts 1-month-ahead corporate bond returns in the cross section.
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Recent Developments in Factor Models and Applications in Econometric Learning
Jianqing Fan, Kunpeng Li, and Yuan LiaoVol. 13 (2021), pp. 401–430More LessThis article provides a selective overview of the recent developments in factor models and their applications in econometric learning. We focus on the perspective of the low-rank structure of factor models and particularly draw attention to estimating the model from the low-rank recovery point of view. Our survey mainly consists of three parts. The first part is a review of new factor estimations based on modern techniques for recovering low-rank structures of high-dimensional models. The second part discusses statistical inferences of several factor-augmented models and their applications in statistical learning models. The final part summarizes new developments dealing with unbalanced panels from the matrix completion perspective.
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