Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences - Current Issue
Volume 52, 2024
-
-
Autobiography: A 50-Year Quest for Understanding in Geoscience
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 1–19More LessReaders will be led down a random path from continental dynamics to paleoclimate. A key to understanding continental dynamics is recognizing that differences in gravitational potential energy per unit area between high and low terrain govern much of large-scale continental deformation. Removal of mantle lithosphere, not just crustal thickening, plays a crucial, but difficult-to-test, role in changes in surface elevation. Although measuring past surface heights remains a challenge, indications of such processes suggest that surface uplift associated with such removal can affect relative plate motion. Climate change, from a warmer to cooler climate, and associated changes in erosion and sedimentation introduce further complications to determining past elevations. The phenomena that led to such cooling include a number of possibilities, but I favor the emergence of islands in the Maritime continent, which transformed the Pacific Ocean from one with a warm eastern tropical Pacific, as during El Niño events, to the present-day La Niña–like background state. Teleconnections from the eastern tropical Pacific to Canada affect the duration of summers and the potential of high-latitude ice to accumulate.
- ▪ Lateral gradients in gravitational potential energy per unit area (GPE), a force per unit length, govern large-scale continental dynamics.
- ▪ Removal of mantle lithosphere and thickening of crust raise GPE; knowledge of mean surface elevations provides a test of these processes.
- ▪ Climate change from a warmer to cooler climate and from one with less to more erosion can give the false impression of elevation change.
- ▪ Emergence of Indonesian islands, more rain over them, a stronger Walker Circulation, and cooler eastern Pacific may have led to ice ages.
-
-
-
The 2018 Eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, Puzzles, and Opportunities for Volcano Science
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 21–59More LessThe science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano's largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions.
- ▪ Unprecedented observations of a caldera collapse and coupled rift zone eruption yield new opportunities for advancing volcano science.
- ▪ Magma flow to a low-elevation rift zone vent triggered quasi-periodic step-like collapse of a summit caldera, which pressurized the magma system and sustained the eruption.
- ▪ Kīlauea's magmatic-tectonic system is tightly interconnected over tens of kilometers, with complex feedback mechanisms and interrelated hazards over widely varying timescales.
- ▪ The eruption revealed magma stored in diverse locations, volumes, and compositions, not only beneath the summit but also within the volcano's most active rift zone.
-
-
-
Aftershock Forecasting
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 61–84More LessAftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine-learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing but do not yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine-learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine-learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.
- ▪ Several countries issue real-time aftershock forecasts following significant earthquakes, providing information to aid response and recovery.
- ▪ Statistical models based on past aftershocks are used to compute aftershock probability as a function of space, time, and magnitude.
- ▪ Aftershock forecasting is advancing through better statistical models, constraints on physical triggering mechanisms, and machine learning.
- ▪ Large high-resolution earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance physical, statistical, and machine-learning aftershock models.
-
-
-
Toward a Natural History of Microbial Life
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 85–108More LessFor most of Earth's history life was microbial, with archaeal and bacterial cells mediating biogeochemical cycles through their metabolisms and ecologies. This diversity was sufficient to maintain a habitable planet across dramatic environmental transitions during the Archean and Proterozoic Eons. However, our knowledge of the first 3 billion years of the biosphere pales in comparison to the rich narrative of complex life documented through the Phanerozoic geological record. In this review, we attempt to lay out a microbial natural history framework that highlights recent and ongoing research unifying microbiology, geochemistry, and traditional organismal evolutionary biology, and we propose six broadly applicable principles to aid in these endeavors. In this way, the evolutionary history of microbial life—once considered only a prelude to the much more storied history of complex metazoan life in the Phanerozoic—is finally coming into its own.
- ▪ The outlines of microbial natural history are now starting to appear through the integration of genomic and geological records.
- ▪ Microorganisms drive Earth's biogeochemical cycles, and their natural history reflects a coevolution with the planet.
- ▪ Past environmental changes have induced microbial biotic transitions, marked by extinction, taxonomic shifts, and new metabolisms and ecologies.
- ▪ Microbial evolution can benefit from a historical perspective of processes and successions as established by macropaleontology.
-
-
-
Life on the Edge: The Cambrian Marine Realm and Oxygenation
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 109–132More LessThe beginning of the Phanerozoic saw two biological events that set the stage for all life that was to come: (a) the Cambrian Explosion (the appearance of most marine invertebrate phyla) and (b) the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), the subsequent substantial accumulation of marine biodiversity. Here, we examine the current state of understanding of marine environments and ecosystems from the late Ediacaran through the Early Ordovician, which spans this biologically important interval. Through a compilation and review of the existing geochemical, mineralogical, sedimentological, and fossil records, we argue that this interval was one of sustained low and variable marine oxygen levels that both led to animal extinction and fostered biodiversification events throughout the Cambrian and Early Ordovician. Therefore, marine ecosystems of this interval existed on the edge—with enough oxygen to sustain them but with the perennial risk of environmental stressors that could overwhelm them.
- ▪ We review the current research on geochemistry and paleontology of the Cambrian and Early Ordovician periods.
- ▪ Low and oscillating oxygen levels in the marine realm promoted diversification and evolutionary innovation but also drove several extinction events.
- ▪ Taphonomic modes and marine authigenic pathways that were abundant in the Cambrian were supported by oceans that were persistently less oxygenated than today's oceans.
-
-
-
The Restructuring of Ecological Networks by the Pleistocene Extinction
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 133–158More LessMost terrestrial large mammals went extinct on different continents at the end of the Pleistocene, between 50,000 and 10,000 years ago. Besides the loss in species diversity and the truncation of body mass distributions, those extinctions were even more impactful to interaction diversity. Along with each extinction, dozens of ecological interactions were lost, reorganizing species interaction networks, which attained species-poor configurations with low functional redundancy. Extinctions of most large herbivores impacted energy flow and the rates of nutrient cycling, reconfiguring ecosystem-level networks. Because large mammals have high mobility, their loss also shortened seed-dispersal distance and reduced nutrient diffusivity, disrupting spatial networks. This review examines the recent advances in understanding how different types of ecological networks have been restructured by megafaunal extinctions and how this reorganization affected ecosystem functions.
- ▪ Megafaunal extinctions resulted in the loss of multiple ecological interactions in terrestrial systems.
- ▪ Interaction loss reshaped different types of ecological networks including food webs and spatial networks.
- ▪ The reorganization of ecological networks changed how terrestrial ecosystems are structured and function.
-
-
-
Lunar Evolution in Light of the Chang'e-5 Returned Samples
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 159–194More LessThe Chinese spacecraft Chang'e-5 (CE-5) landed on the northern Ocean Procellarum and returned 1,731 grams of regolith. The CE-5 regolith is composed mostly of fragments of basalt, impact glass, agglutinates, and mineral fragments. The basalts could be classified as of a low-Ti and highly fractionated type based on their TiO2 content of ∼5.3 wt% and Mg# of ∼28. Independent of petrographic texture, the CE-5 basalts have a uniform eruption age of 2,030 ± 4 Ma, demonstrating that the Moon remained volcanically active until at least ∼2.0 Ga. Although the CE-5 landing site lies within the so-called Procellarum KREEP [potassium (K), rare earth elements (REE), and phosphorus (P)] Terrane, neither the CE-5 basalts nor the mantle source regions of those basalts were enriched in KREEP components, such as incompatible elements, water, sulfur, or chlorine. Therefore, it would be a new and stimulating task in the future to look for the triggering mechanism of the young volcanism on the Moon.
- ▪ The CE-5 spacecraft returned 1,731 grams of lunar regolith in December 2020. It was the first new lunar sample since the last collection in August 1976.
- ▪ CE-5 regolith is basaltic in chemical composition, with only ∼1% highland materials of anorthosite, Mg suite, alkali suite, and KREEP.
- ▪ The CE-5 basalt is low Ti and highly differentiated. It was extruded at ∼2.0 Ga, being the youngest lunar basalt identified so far from the Moon.
- ▪ The triggering mechanism of the ∼2.0 Ga lunar volcanism is not clearly understood because its mantle source was dry and contained low abundances of KREEP elements.
-
-
-
Halogen Cycling in the Solid Earth
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 195–220More LessEach of the halogens constrains a different aspect of volatile cycling in the solid Earth. F is moderately incompatible in the mantle and has a low mobility at Earth's surface, meaning that it is preferentially retained in the mantle and continental crust. In contrast, Cl, Br, and I are strongly incompatible and highly soluble. Chloride is the dominant anion in seawater and many geofluids and a major component of evaporite minerals. Br and I are essential for life and significantly incorporated into organic matter that accumulates in marine sediments. Surficial fluids circulated into continental and oceanic crust incorporate surface-derived halogens into alteration minerals. As a result, subducting slabs and arc lavas are weakly enriched in F and strongly enriched in Cl, Br, and I. Subduction has maintained mantle Cl and Br concentrations at relatively constant levels since Earth's early differentiation, but mantle I/Cl has decreased over time.
- ▪ Halogen abundances on the early Earth were affected by I partitioning into Earth's core and possible loss of hydrophilic Cl, Br, and I in an early formed ocean.
- ▪ Halogens are powerful tracers of subduction zone processes on the modern Earth, with Cl, Br, and I having a dominantly subducted origin in Earth's mantle.
- ▪ The deep subduction cycles of Cl, Br, and I are more similar to that of H2O than they are to F, but the geochemical cycle of each halogen differs in detail.
- ▪ Halogen abundance ratios and stable isotope ratios vary systematically in Earth's surface reservoirs, meaning that halogens are powerful tracers of geological fluids and melts.
-
-
-
Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 221–247More LessThe largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions.
- ▪ Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving.
- ▪ Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions.
- ▪ Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability.
- ▪ The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice.
-
-
-
Sublithospheric Diamonds: Plate Tectonics from Earth's Deepest Mantle Samples
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 249–293More LessSublithospheric diamonds and the inclusions they may carry crystallize in the asthenosphere, transition zone, or uppermost lower mantle (from 300 to ∼800 km), and are the deepest minerals so far recognized to form by plate tectonics. These diamonds are distinctive in their deformation features, low nitrogen content, and inclusions of these major mantle minerals: majoritic garnet, clinopyroxene, ringwoodite, CaSi perovskite, ferropericlase, and bridgmanite or their retrograde equivalents. The stable isotopic compositions of elements within these diamonds (δ11B, δ13C, δ15N) and their inclusions (δ18O, δ56Fe) are typically well outside normal mantle ranges, showing that these elements were either organic (C) or modified by seawater alteration (B, O, Fe) at relatively low temperatures. Metamorphic minerals in cold slabs are effective hosts that transport C as CO3 and H as H2O, OH, or CH4 below the island arc and mantle wedge. Warming of the slab generates carbonatitic melts, supercritical aqueous fluids, or metallic liquids, forming three types of sublithospheric diamonds. Diamond crystallization occurs by movement and reduction of mobile fluids as they pass through host mantle via fractures—a process that creates chemical heterogeneity and may promote deep focus earthquakes. Geobarometry of majoritic garnet inclusions and diamond ages suggest upward transport, perhaps to the base of mantle lithosphere. From there, diamonds are carried to Earth's surface by eruptions of kimberlite magma. Mineral assemblages in sublithospheric diamonds directly trace Earth's deep volatile cycle, demonstrating how the hydrosphere of a rocky planet can connect to its solid interior.
- ▪ Sublithospheric diamonds from the deep upper mantle, transition zone, and lower mantle host Earth's deepest obtainable mineral samples.
- ▪ Low-temperature seawater alteration of the ocean floor captures organic and inorganic carbon at the surface eventually to become some of the most precious gem diamonds.
- ▪ Subduction transports fluids in metamorphic minerals to great depth. Fluids released by slab heating migrate, react with host mantle to induce diamond crystallization, and may trigger earthquakes.
- ▪ Sublithospheric diamonds are powerful tracers of subduction—a plate tectonic process that deeply recycles part of Earth's planetary volatile budget.
-
-
-
Origin and Early Evolution of Echinoderms
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 295–320More LessEchinoderms are a major group (phylum) of invertebrate animals with a rich fossil record stretching back to the Cambrian period, approximately 518 million years ago. While all modern species are characterized by pentaradial (i.e., fivefold) symmetry, Cambrian echinoderms also include taxa with different types of symmetry (e.g., bilateral symmetry). These distinct forms were present from very early in the phylum's history, demonstrating that the initial diversification of echinoderm body plans was extremely rapid. The phylogenetic relationships of Cambrian echinoderms have long been debated, hindering efforts to reconstruct the evolution of the phylum, but recent analyses have consistently recovered bilaterally symmetrical forms as the earliest-diverging echinoderms. This reveals the sequence of character acquisition in echinoderm evolution, indicating that radial symmetry is a derived character of the group, which evolved after the acquisition of a mineralized skeleton. Cambrian echinoderms were adapted to diverse modes of life, with ecology an important factor shaping their early evolution. However, the reasons why echinoderms evolved their unique pentaradial body plan remain unclear.
- ▪ The Cambrian fossil record provides valuable insights into the origin and early evolution of echinoderms over half a billion years ago.
- ▪ Cambrian echinoderms were morphologically diverse, with several extinct groups exhibiting character combinations that distinguish them from living species.
- ▪ Phylogenetic analyses of bilateral, asymmetrical, triradial, and pentaradial fossils have allowed us to decipher the assembly of the modern echinoderm body plan.
- ▪ Echinoderms became ecologically diverse early in their history, with varied modes of feeding, locomotion, and attachment.
-
-
-
Climate and Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 321–349More LessThe hydroxyl radical (OH) largely controls the tropospheric self-cleansing capacity by reacting with gases harmful to the environment and human health. OH concentrations are determined locally by competing production and loss processes. Lacking strong observational constraints, models differ in how they balance these processes, such that the sign of past and future OH changes is uncertain. In a warmer climate, OH production will increase due to its water vapor dependence, partially offset by faster OH-methane loss. Weather-sensitive emissions will also likely increase, although their net impact on global mean OH depends on the balance between source (nitrogen oxides) and sink (reactive carbon) gases. Lightning activity increases OH, but its response to climate warming is of uncertain sign. To enable confident projections of OH, we recommend efforts to reduce uncertainties in kinetic reactions, in measured and modeled OH, in proxies for past OH concentrations, and in source and sink gas emissions.
- ▪ OH is strongly modulated by internal climate variability despite its lifetime of a few seconds at most, with implications for interpreting trends in methane.
- ▪ Improved kinetic constraints on key reactions would strengthen confidence in regional and global OH budgets, and in the response of OH to climate change.
- ▪ Future OH changes will depend on uncertain and compensating processes involving weather-sensitive chemistry and emissions, plus human choices.
- ▪ Technological solutions to climate change will likely impact tropospheric oxidizing capacity and merit further study prior to implementation.
-
-
-
Modeling Past Hothouse Climates as a Means for Assessing Earth System Models and Improving the Understanding of Warm Climates
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 351–78More LessSimulating the warmth and equability of past hothouse climates has been a challenge since the inception of paleoclimate modeling. The newest generation of Earth system models (ESMs) has shown substantial improvements in the ability to simulate the early Eocene global mean surface temperature (GMST) and equator-to-pole gradient. Results using the Community Earth System Model suggest that parameterizations of atmospheric radiation, convection, and clouds largely determine the Eocene GMST and are responsible for improvements in the new ESMs, but they have less direct influence on the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. ESMs still have difficulty simulating some regional and seasonal temperatures, although improved data reconstructions of chronology, spatial coverage, and seasonal resolution are needed for more robust model assessment. Looking forward, key processes including radiation and clouds need to be benchmarked and improved using more accurate models of limited domain/physics. Earth system processes need to be better explored, leveraging the increasing ESM resolution and complexity.
- ▪ Earth system models (ESMs) are now able to simulate the large-scale features of the early Eocene.
- ▪ Remaining model-data discrepancies exist at regional and seasonal scales and require improvements in both proxy data and ESMs.
- ▪ A hierarchical modeling approach is needed to ensure relevant physical processes are parameterized reasonably well in ESMs.
- ▪ Future work is needed to leverage the continuously increasing resolution and complexity of ESMs.
-
-
-
Late Cenozoic Faunal and Ecological Change in Africa
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 379–407More LessAfrica's fossil record of late Cenozoic mammals documents considerable ecological and evolutionary changes through time. Here, we synthesize those changes in the context of the mechanisms proposed to account for them, including bottom-up (e.g., climate change) and top-down (e.g., hominin impacts) processes. In doing so, we (a) examine how the incompleteness of the fossil record and the varied spatiotemporal scales of the evidence complicate efforts to establish cause-effect relationships; (b) evaluate hypothesized drivers of long-term ecological and evolutionary change, highlighting key unknowns; and (c) synthesize major taxonomic and functional trends through time (e.g., downsizing of faunal communities) considering the proposed drivers. Throughout our review, we point to unresolved questions and highlight research avenues that have potential to inform on the processes that have shaped the history of what are today the most diverse remaining large mammal communities on Earth.
- ▪ The study of late Cenozoic African mammal communities is intertwined with questions about the context, causes, and consequences of hominin evolution.
- ▪ The fossil record documents major functional (e.g., loss of megaherbivores) and taxonomic (e.g., rise of the Bovidae) changes over the past ∼7 Myr.
- ▪ Complexities inherent to the fossil record have made it difficult to identify the processes that drove ecological and evolutionary changes.
- ▪ Unanswered questions about the drivers of faunal change and the functioning of past ecosystems represent promising future research directions.
-
-
-
On Dislocation Climb as an Important Deformation Mechanism for Planetary Interiors
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 409–441More LessAn understanding of the rheological behavior of the solid Earth is fundamental to provide a quantitative description of most geological and geophysical phenomena. The continuum mechanics approach to describing large-scale phenomena needs to be informed by a description of the mechanisms operating at the atomic scale. These involve crystal defects, mainly vacancies and dislocations. This often leads to a binary view of creep reduced to diffusion creep or dislocation creep. However, the interaction between these two types of defects leading to dislocation climb plays an important role, and may even be the main one, in the high-temperature, low strain rate creep mechanisms of interest to the Earth sciences. Here we review the fundamentals of dislocation climb, highlighting the specific problems of minerals. We discuss the importance of computer simulations, informed by experiments, for accurately modeling climb. We show how dislocation climb increasingly appears as a deformation mechanism in its own right. We review the contribution of this mechanism to mineral deformation, particularly in Earth's mantle. Finally, we discuss progress and challenges, and we outline future work directions.
- ▪ Dislocations can be sources or sinks of vacancies, resulting in a displacement out of the glide plane: climb.
- ▪ Dislocation climb can be a recovery mechanism during dislocation creep but also a strain-producing mechanism.
- ▪ The slow natural strain rates promote the contribution of climb, which is controlled by diffusion.
- ▪ In planetary interiors where dislocation glide can be inhibited by pressure, dislocation climb may be the only active mechanism.
-
-
-
The Hidden Hydrogeosphere: The Contribution of Deep Groundwater to the Planetary Water Cycle
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 443–466More LessThe canonical water cycle assumes that all water entering the subsurface to form groundwater eventually reenters the surface water cycle by discharge to lakes, streams, and oceans. Recent discoveries in groundwater dating have challenged that understanding. Here we introduce a new conceptual framework that includes the large volume of water that is estimated to account for 30–46% of the planet's groundwater but that is not yet incorporated in the traditional water cycle. This immense hidden hydrogeosphere has been overlooked to date largely because it is stored deeper in the crust, on long timescales ranging from tens of thousands to more than one billion years. Here we demonstrate why understanding of this deep, old groundwater is critical to society's energy, resource, and climate challenges as the deep hydrogeosphere is an important target for exploration for new resources of helium, hydrogen, and other elements critical to the green energy transition; is under investigation for geologic repositories for nuclear waste and for carbon sequestration; and is the biome for a deep subsurface biosphere estimated to account for a significant proportion of Earth's biomass.
- ▪ We provide a new conceptual framework for the hidden hydrogeosphere, the 30–46% of groundwater previously unrecognized in canonical water cycles.
- ▪ Geochemico-statistical modeling groundwater age distributions allows deconvolution of timing, rates, and magnitudes of key crustal processes.
- ▪ Understanding and modeling this deep, old groundwater are critical to addressing society's energy, resource, and climate challenges.
-
-
-
Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 467–493More LessThe Paris Agreement calls for emissions reductions to limit climate change, but how will the carbon cycle change if it is successful? The land and oceans currently absorb roughly half of anthropogenic emissions, but this fraction will decline in the future. The amount of carbon that can be released before climate is mitigated depends on the amount of carbon the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems can absorb. Policy is based on model projections, but observations and theory suggest that climate effects emerging in today's climate will increase and carbon cycle tipping points may be crossed. Warming temperatures, drought, and a slowing growth rate of CO2 itself will reduce land and ocean sinks and create new sources, making carbon sequestration in forests, soils, and other land and aquatic vegetation more difficult. Observations, data-assimilative models, and prediction systems are needed for managing ongoing long-term changes to land and ocean systems after achieving net-zero emissions.
- ▪ International agreements call for stabilizing climate at 1.5° above preindustrial, while the world is already seeing damaging extremes below that.
- ▪ If climate is stabilized near the 1.5° target, the driving force for most sinks will slow, while feedbacks from the warmer climate will continue to cause sources.
- ▪ Once emissions are reduced to net zero, carbon cycle-climate feedbacks will require observations to support ongoing active management to maintain storage.
-
-
-
Origin of Phobos and Deimos Awaiting Direct Exploration
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 495–519More LessTwo major hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos: the in situ formation theory, supported by the fact that they have circular orbits nearly parallel to the Martian equator, and the asteroid capture theory, supported by the similarity of their reflectance spectra to those of carbonaceous asteroids. Regarding the in situ formation theory, recent theoretical studies have focused on the huge impact scenario, which proposes that debris ejected into orbits during the formation of a giant impact basin on Mars accumulated to form the Martian moons. On the other hand, gas drag from a Martian gas envelope composed of gravitationally attracted solar nebula gas has been proposed as a mechanism for trapping the approaching asteroidal objects in areocentric orbits. In particular, an object entering a temporarily captured orbit in the Martian gravitational sphere would easily evolve into a fully captured moon with a near-equatorial orbit under realistic gas densities. The upcoming Phobos sample return mission is expected to elucidate the origin of both moons, with implications for material transport in the early Solar System and the early evolution of Mars.
- ▪ The origin of Mars' small moons, Phobos and Deimos, has long been an open question.
- ▪ The leading hypotheses are asteroid capture, inferred from their appearance like primitive asteroids, and giant impact, implied by the regularity of their orbits.
- ▪ The origin of Phobos will be precisely determined by a sample return mission to be conducted in the late 2020s to early 2030s.
- ▪ Determining the origin of the Martian moons will provide clues to clarifying how the parent planet Mars formed and came to have a habitable surface environment.
-
-
-
Hydrotectonics of Grand Canyon Groundwater
Vol. 52 (2024), pp. 521–547More LessThe Grand Canyon provides a deeply dissected view of the aquifers of the Colorado Plateau and its public and tribal lands. Stacked sandstone and karst aquifers are vertically connected by a network of faults and breccia pipes creating a complex groundwater network. Hydrochemical variations define structurally controlled groundwater sub-basins, each with main discharging springs. North Rim (N-Rim), South Rim (S-Rim), and far-west springs have different stable isotope fingerprints, reflecting different mean recharge elevations. Variation within each region reflects proportions of fast/slow aquifer pathways. Often considered perched, the upper Coconino (C) aquifer has a similar compositional range as the regional Redwall-Muav (R-M) karst aquifer, indicating connectivity. Natural and anthropogenic tracers show that recharge can travel 2 km vertically and tens of kilometers laterally in days to months via fracture conduits to mix with older karst baseflow. Six decades of piping N-Rim water to S-Rim Village and infiltration of effluent along the Bright Angel fault have sustained S-Rim groundwaters and likely induced S-Rim microseismicity. Sustainable groundwater management and uranium mining threats require better monitoring and application of hydrotectonic concepts.
- ▪ Hydrotectonic concepts include distinct structural sub-basins, fault fast conduits, confined aquifers, karst aquifers, upwelling geothermal fluids, and induced seismicity.
- ▪ N-Rim, S-Rim, and far-west springs have different stable isotope fingerprints reflecting different mean recharge elevations and residence times.
- ▪ The upper C and lower R-M aquifers have overlapping stable isotope fingerprints in a given region, indicating vertical connectivity between aquifers.
- ▪ S-Rim springs and groundwater wells are being sustained by ∼60 years of piping of N-Rim water to S-Rim, possibly inducing seismicity.
-
Previous Volumes
-
Volume 52 (2024)
-
Volume 51 (2023)
-
Volume 50 (2022)
-
Volume 49 (2021)
-
Volume 48 (2020)
-
Volume 47 (2019)
-
Volume 46 (2018)
-
Volume 45 (2017)
-
Volume 44 (2016)
-
Volume 43 (2015)
-
Volume 42 (2014)
-
Volume 41 (2013)
-
Volume 40 (2012)
-
Volume 39 (2011)
-
Volume 38 (2010)
-
Volume 37 (2009)
-
Volume 36 (2008)
-
Volume 35 (2007)
-
Volume 34 (2006)
-
Volume 33 (2005)
-
Volume 32 (2004)
-
Volume 31 (2003)
-
Volume 30 (2002)
-
Volume 29 (2001)
-
Volume 28 (2000)
-
Volume 27 (1999)
-
Volume 26 (1998)
-
Volume 25 (1997)
-
Volume 24 (1996)
-
Volume 23 (1995)
-
Volume 22 (1994)
-
Volume 21 (1993)
-
Volume 20 (1992)
-
Volume 19 (1991)
-
Volume 18 (1990)
-
Volume 17 (1989)
-
Volume 16 (1988)
-
Volume 15 (1987)
-
Volume 14 (1986)
-
Volume 13 (1985)
-
Volume 12 (1984)
-
Volume 11 (1983)
-
Volume 10 (1982)
-
Volume 9 (1981)
-
Volume 8 (1980)
-
Volume 7 (1979)
-
Volume 6 (1978)
-
Volume 5 (1977)
-
Volume 4 (1976)
-
Volume 3 (1975)
-
Volume 2 (1974)
-
Volume 1 (1973)
-
Volume 0 (1932)